Clemson vs North Carolina
Game played Sep 19, 2026 · Published September 19, 2026 at 11:04 AM · 15 pages
Projected score, total and win probability for Clemson vs North Carolina, priced against the betting line — with injuries, form and the key statistical mismatches.
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A F P L N A C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L M A T C H U P R E P O R T V S Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D S E P T E M B E R 1 9 , 2 0 2 6 1 0 : 5 0 A M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Matchup Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 SP Ratings 04 ELO Ratings 05 FPI Ratings 06 SRS Ratings 07 Advanced Team Stats 08 Returning Production 09 Team Talent 10 Team PPA 11 Player PPA 12 Team Season Stats 13 Adjusted Team Metrics 14 Clemson Tigers Injury Updates 15 North Carolina Tar Heels Injury Updates 16 Key Player Matchups 17 Clemson Tigers Roster Updates 18 North Carolina Tar Heels Roster Updates 19 Clemson Tigers Practice and Scrimmage Updates 20 North Carolina Tar Heels Practice and Scrimmage Updates 21 Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels Media Matchup Analysis 22 Game Conditions and Betting Context 23 Final Prediction
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01 MATCHUP OVERVIEW Setting the stage for Clemson's ACC opener: two teams coming from opposite directions, a lopsided recent series, and a true freshman quarterback making history in a suddenly volatile Death Valley. Clemson is 1-1 and wobbling after a 51-10 dismantling at LSU followed by a labored 22-7 win over Georgia Southern; the Tigers are averaging 16.0 points per game while allowing 29.0 1. North Carolina is 2-0 — 15-10 over TCU in a neutral-site slog in Ireland, then 35-3 over East Tennessee State — averaging 25.0 points and allowing 6.5 1. The stakes are obvious: this is the ACC opener for both, and Clemson is one more disjointed offensive performance away from a full-blown crisis, while Bill Belichick's Tar Heels are trying to prove the 2-0 record is real and not just a product of soft competition. The history is heavily Clemson. The Tigers lead the all-time series 40-18-1 and have won four straight and nine of the last ten meetings, including 38-10 in Chapel Hill last season, 31-20 at Memorial Stadium in 2023, 39-10 in the 2022 ACC Championship Game and 21-20 in the 2019 classic 1. The last time North Carolina beat Clemson, in 2010 at Kenan Stadium, the score was 21-16 1. Saturday's game is a noon ET kickoff on Disney+ and ESPN 1, and the headline is Clemson's decision to start true freshman Tait Reynolds under center — the earliest a freshman has started at quarterback for the program in more than 50 years 35. Memorial Stadium, opened in 1942, hosts its 467th game 53, and the ACC opener doubles as a referendum on both programs. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like-for-like from one game to the next. GAME CONDITIONS · The forecast and the ground it will be played on: temperature, wind and precipitation beside the stadium's surface, roof, capacity and elevation. Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 2 of 15
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POWER RATING DASHBOARD · SP+, FPI and Elo side by side. SP+ and FPI are points-above-average ratings; the SP+ defensive rating counts down, so a lower bar is the better defense. Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 3 of 15
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EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always the better number regardless of which way the raw stat runs. Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 4 of 15
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MISMATCH MATRIX · Each offense measured directly against the defense it will face. Bars show the percentile gap; the longer the bar, the wider that specific unit-vs-unit edge. SEASON FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added. This is where you see a team trending up or falling apart, which season averages hide. Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 5 of 15
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TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA. Cross-reference this against the injury and roster sections. ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT · How much production each team returned from last season, alongside the recruiting talent composite. Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 6 of 15
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PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM · What each rating system independently projects, plus the market line and the blended consensus used as the model's anchor. WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · The consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. The shaded area on each side is that team's win probability. 03 SP RATINGS SP+ is an opponent-adjusted power rating measured in points per game relative to average; the defensive rating counts down, so a lower number is the better defense. The ranking field is ignored here — it is meaningless in this feed. TEAM SP+ OVERALL OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TEAMS Clemson 8.1 27.0 19.2 0.3 North Carolina 6.4 25.5 19.5 0.4 The headline number says Clemson is about 1.7 points per game better than North Carolina on a neutral field, and the split is almost entirely on offense: Clemson's offensive rating of 27.0 vs. UNC's 25.5, against a national average of 26.4 1. The defenses are nearly identical (Clemson 19.2, UNC 19.5, both well better than the 25.6 national average), and special teams are a wash (0.3 vs. 0.4) 1. That is a striking readout given what the raw stats say — Clemson's offense has been one of the worst in the country through two weeks, and SP+ is still insisting the Tigers are the better unit, largely because opponent adjustments discount the LSU data point as a schedule artifact. Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 7 of 15
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What the SP+ split implies for this game: neither team projects to score easily. Both defenses are rated as above-average units, and both offenses are merely average. The difference between 8.1 and 6.4 is small enough that a single turnover or a couple of third-down conversions flips the game, and it is exactly why the betting market can't decide whether this is a three-point game or a six-point game. The Power Rating Dashboard shows SP+ and Elo pulling in one direction while FPI pulls in the other, and that disagreement is the analytical core of this matchup. 04 ELO RATINGS Elo is a head-to-head power rating that measures each team's true strength from results, with the gap between ratings converting directly into an expected points margin. Clemson checks in at 1558 and North Carolina at 1395 — a 163-point gap 1. At the standard conversion of roughly 25 Elo points per point of margin, that's about 6.5 points of true strength before home field, and about 8.9 points once Clemson's 2.4-point home-field advantage is added 1. That is the single largest edge any system gives either team in this game, and it reflects a decade of Clemson dominance in the series and UNC's historical inability to beat teams of this caliber. But Elo is the most backward-looking number in the building. It has no idea that Clemson's offense ranks in the 1st percentile of expected points added per play, that the Tigers have allowed 22 tackles for loss in two games, or that they are about to start a true freshman quarterback against a Belichick defense 1. Elo is useful here as a ceiling — it says the rosters, the program, and the home crowd should carry Clemson to something like a 9-point win — and useless as a floor. In a game where the market has already dropped the line from 6.5 to 3, the Elo gap is the argument for the home favorite covering, but only if the offense stops hurting itself. 05 FPI RATINGS FPI is ESPN's expected points-above-average metric against an average opponent, and it is the one major system that rates North Carolina as the better team. FPI gives North Carolina a 6.31 rating and Clemson a 5.34 — almost a full point per game in the Tar Heels' favor on a neutral field; the margin flips to Clemson by roughly 1.4 only after home-field advantage is added 1. The efficiency components explain why. UNC's overall efficiency is 72.25 vs. Clemson's 48.94, and the offensive split is staggering: UNC 57.45 vs. Clemson 12.60, meaning FPI thinks UNC's offense is dramatically more efficient than Clemson's 1. Defensively, Clemson is the better unit (67.17 vs. 80.74, lower is better), and Clemson's special teams efficiency (83.35 vs. 30.63) is comfortably superior 1. This is the disagreement the ratings dashboard flags. SP+ and Elo say Clemson is meaningfully better; FPI says North Carolina is the better team and the only reason Clemson is favored at all is the home crowd. The truth is probably in between, but FPI's offensive split is consistent with everything the raw advanced stats say: Clemson's offense has been broken, and UNC's — while unproven against good competition — has been efficient. If you believe FPI, the correct side is North Carolina plus the points, and the only question is whether the Tar Heels' coaching chaos and roster attrition are enough to offset it. 06 SRS RATINGS No SRS data was available for this matchup, so no cross-system agreement or disagreement assessment was possible. 07 ADVANCED TEAM STATS These are the opponent-adjusted efficiency numbers that separate who is actually good from who just has good records — success rate, explosiveness, PPA per play, line yards, havoc and points per scoring opportunity, all converted to national percentiles via the Efficiency Profile. OFFENSIVE METRIC CLEMSON (PCTILE) NORTH CAROLINA (PCTILE) PPA per play -0.187 (1.4) +0.236 (62.3) Success rate 29.1% (0.7) 51.3% (77.5) Explosiveness 0.98 (5.1) 1.03 (10.9) Line yards 2.24 (2.9) 3.83 (90.6) Points per opportunity 3.2 (23.9) 4.36 (60.9) DEFENSIVE METRIC CLEMSON (PCTILE) NORTH CAROLINA (PCTILE) PPA per play allowed 0.180 (15.2) -0.121 (81.2) Success rate allowed 42.2% (27.5) 38.1% (51.4) Explosiveness allowed 1.34 (25.4) 0.88 (98.6) Line yards allowed 3.34 (10.9) 2.75 (46.4) Havoc 0.155 (46.4) 0.137 (19.6) There is no polite way to describe Clemson's offensive profile: a 0.7th-percentile success rate and 1.4th-percentile PPA per play are historically bad two-game numbers 1. The Tigers are getting stuffed at a 33.9% rate, generating 2.24 line yards per carry (2.9th percentile) against a national average that is roughly a yard better, and their passing downs are a disaster 1. North Carolina, by contrast, is a grinding, efficient offense: 51.3% success rate (77.5th percentile), 3.83 line yards (90.6th percentile), and 4.36 points per scoring opportunity 1. The Mismatch Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 8 of 15
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Matrix shows the single widest unit-vs-unit gap of the game: UNC's run offense vs. Clemson's run defense, which is allowing 3.34 line yards and ranks 10.9th percentile against the run 1. The defensive collision is where this game gets interesting. UNC is elite at suppressing explosive plays — 0.88 explosiveness allowed, 98.6th percentile — and turns scoring opportunities into almost nothing, allowing just 1.3 points per opportunity 1. That is exactly the wrong profile for a Clemson offense that cannot sustain drives. Meanwhile Clemson's defense has real problems (15.2nd percentile PPA allowed), but the one thing UNC's offense does not do is create chunk plays: 10.9th percentile explosiveness 1. This is a methodical UNC attack grinding against a defense that is vulnerable specifically to big plays it rarely concedes. The matchup style points to a low-possession, low-scoring game in which every red-zone trip matters, and the data says UNC's defense is the one unit on this field that is both efficient and explosive-aversive. 08 RETURNING PRODUCTION This measures how much of last season's statistical production each roster actually brought back, broken out by total, passing, receiving and rushing PPA. Clemson returned 41.4% of its total offensive production, highlighted by 71.2% of receiving PPA but just 14.1% of passing PPA and negative rushing PPA (-37.7%) 1. North Carolina returned only 27.8% of total PPA — 53.6% of rushing PPA but just 32.8% of receiving PPA and 9.5% of passing PPA 1. Both teams are effectively rebuilding their quarterback production, which is the through-line of this entire game. Clemson's split explains its dysfunction perfectly: the Tigers kept their elite wide receivers (T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. are the returning receiving core) but lost nearly all of their passing production from a year ago, and the running back room that returned was a net negative in PPA 1. The receiving talent remained, the infrastructure around it did not. North Carolina is the mirror image — the Tar Heels kept the run game and rebuilt the passing game almost entirely through the portal, which is exactly what Billy Edwards Jr. and Jelani Thurman represent 1. The Roster Continuity & Talent chart shows both rosters are in transition, but UNC's portal rebuild has produced an offense that is at least functional, while Clemson's retained skill talent is being wasted by the surrounding pieces. 09 TEAM TALENT The 247 Sports composite talent score measures the recruiting base underneath the roster — the single best predictor of where a team's ceiling actually sits. Clemson's roster is rated 862.85; North Carolina's is 767.89 — a gap of roughly 95 points, which is the difference between a top-10 recruiting operation and a good-but-not-elite one 1. This is the biggest structural edge Clemson owns in this game, and it shows up exactly where you would expect: at wide receiver, on the defensive line, and in overall team speed. Belichick spent the week calling Clemson's receiver tandem of Moore and Wesco "as good as anybody we'll see all year," which is a coach acknowledging the talent gap in real time 26. But talent is a slow variable and this is a week-3 game. The 95-point composite gap did not prevent LSU from hanging 51 on Clemson, and it does not block a true freshman quarterback from taking sacks behind an offensive line that ranks last nationally in tackles-for-loss allowed 7. What the talent edge does do is set a floor: Clemson's defense, even playing badly by the numbers, has more athletes than most of UNC's opponents, and the Tigers' receivers are a mismatch capable of turning a busted coverage into six points against a UNC secondary that has not faced anyone like them 27. The Roster Continuity & Talent chart puts the recruiting gap in context — Clemson is the more talented team by a mile, and it is also the team whose week-to-week execution has been worse. 10 TEAM PPA Team-level predicted points added per play, tracked week by week, shows which teams are trending up and which are entering a tailspin that season averages hide. TEAM WEEK 1 OFFENSE WEEK 1 DEFENSE WEEK 2 OFFENSE WEEK 2 DEFENSE Clemson -0.30 (vs LSU) +0.38 allowed -0.11 (vs Georgia Southern) -0.10 allowed North Carolina -0.01 (vs TCU) -0.07 allowed +0.50 (vs ETSU) -0.17 allowed Clemson's offense has improved from -0.30 PPA against LSU to -0.11 against Georgia Southern, but it is still producing negative expected points on a per-play basis — against an opponent that is not remotely in the same weight class as UNC's defense 1. Clemson's defense, by contrast, has gone from +0.38 PPA allowed against LSU to -0.10 against Georgia Southern, which is the quietest positive trend in this game 1. The Tigers' defense is rounding into form while their offense stays stuck in the mud, and the Season Form Trend chart shows that gap is widening, not narrowing. North Carolina's trend lines demand a discount. The Tar Heels went from -0.01 PPA on offense against TCU — the only competent opponent they have faced — to +0.50 against an FCS opponent in East Tennessee State 1. The defensive trend (from -0.07 to -0.17 allowed) is against the same soft competition. In other words, UNC's numbers are getting better while the competition is getting worse, and the first real test is exactly now. Neither team has played a complete game against a quality opponent in 2026; the difference is that UNC has actually won its soft games soundly, while Clemson nearly lost one of its two soft-ish spots. 11 PLAYER PPA The individuals who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA — cross-reference this list against the injury and roster sections, because a couple of these names are not playing. CLEMSON PLAYER (POS) TOTAL PPA NORTH CAROLINA PLAYER (POS) TOTAL PPA Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 9 of 15
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T.J. Moore (WR) +7.19 Billy Edwards (QB) +19.09 Tyler Brown (WR) +5.84 Jelani Thurman (TE) +9.31 David Eziomume (RB) +2.52 Jaylen McGill (RB) +7.63 Juju Preston (WR) +0.99 Demon June (RB) +5.29 Bryant Wesco Jr. (WR) -1.03 C.J. Sadler (WR) +5.15 Chris Johnson Jr. (RB) -2.87 Jordan Shipp (WR) +5.10 Tait Reynolds (QB) -5.91 Miles O'Neill (QB) +2.87 Christopher Vizzina (QB) -7.92 Shamar Easter (TE) +2.39 The Top Individual Impact chart tells a brutal story for Clemson: the two best players on the entire offense are wide receivers who are positive because they catch passes from quarterbacks who are both negative 1. Vizzina (-7.92) and Reynolds (-5.91) have combined to cost Clemson nearly 14 points of expected production, and every running back except Eziomume — whose +2.52 total came on a single play — is in the red 1. Moore and Tyler Brown are the only consistent positive contributors, and they are the reason Clemson is not scoring negative points. North Carolina's production is dangerously concentrated: Edwards (+19.09) and Thurman (+9.31) are the entire passing game, with Shipp (+5.10) as the third wheel 1. C.J. Sadler's +5.15 PPA is sitting at home Saturday after his traffic-stop suspension 22, which strips away UNC's fourth-most-productive player and thin the rotation. The individual mismatch of the week: Clemson's offense must somehow feed Moore and Wesco against a defense that is elite at preventing explosive plays, while Clemson's defense must locate Thurman on every snap 28 — the Ohio State transfer has more total PPA than any Clemson player outside the quarterback position. 12 TEAM SEASON STATS The raw counting stats — the numbers on the scoreboard and in the box score — and how they agree or disagree with the advanced profile. Clemson through two games: 492 total yards (246 per game) against 910 allowed, 30 first downs against 52, 3-of-27 on third down, 15 penalties for 141 yards, 6 sacks allowed, 22 tackles for loss allowed, 3 turnovers, and one offensive touchdown in each game 1. North Carolina: 749 total yards (374.5 per game) against 536 allowed, 43 first downs against 34, 8-of-20 on third down, 7 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, 4 rushing touchdowns, and 2 turnovers 1. Clemson's season totals show a team getting out-gained by nearly 420 yards, out-third-downed by a mile, and penalized more than any opponent has been penalized against them 1. The raw numbers and the advanced numbers agree almost perfectly here — with one important exception. Clemson's defensive aggregates are brutal (910 yards allowed), but they are heavily skewed by the LSU outlier; against Georgia Southern, the defense allowed seven points and negative PPA 1. The third-down number is the single most damning stat of the entire game: 3-of-27 (11.1%) is third-worst nationally, while UNC's defense allows opponents to convert 47% of third downs (121st nationally) 10. Something has to give between Clemson's inability to convert and UNC's inability to stop conversions. The raw stats also validate UNC's run game: 251 yards and four rushing touchdowns on 56 carries, fully consistent with the 90.6th-percentile line yards number 1. Where the agree-and-disagree test matters most is the pass rush: UNC has seven sacks in two games (14th nationally) while Clemson has allowed six sacks and 22 tackles for loss — last in the country 7. 13 ADJUSTED TEAM METRICS No opponent-adjusted team metric data was available for this matchup. 14 CLEMSON TIGERS INJURY UPDATES MEDICAL items only, from two separate inputs. Note that the live research and stored feed agree closely; the stored feed's Clemson-relevant entries are listed separately below. Live web research: QB Christopher Vizzina — Questionable (left elbow, downgraded from probable on Friday's ACC availability report after injuring the elbow in the Georgia Southern win; he wore a brace in practice all week) 3 DT Markus Strong — Out for season (lower leg, suffered in the LSU game) 4 S Polo Anderson — Out 4 CB Shavar Young Jr. — Out 4 WR Cole Turner — Out 4 RB Peyton Streko — Out 4 WR Keil McGriff — Out 4 DT Hevin Brown-Shuler — Out 4 DT Kourtney Kelly — Out 4 LB Joseph Roberto II — Out 4 OL Adam Guthrie — Out 4 OL Mason Wade — Out 4 Injury feed: 2 The stored feed's Clemson-relevant entries confirm the same list: Vizzina questionable (elbow) 3, Strong out for the season (lower leg) 4, and Anderson, Young Jr., Streko, Wade, Kelly, McGriff, Roberto II, Brown-Shuler, Turner and Guthrie all listed out 4. Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 10 of 15
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Clemson will be without 11 players, and the damage is concentrated where it hurts most: the defensive interior. Strong is gone for the year, and Brown-Shuler and Kelly have not played — three defensive tackles out of the rotation entirely, exactly the position group North Carolina's 90.6th-percentile line-yards run game intends to attack 1. The offensive line depth pieces (Guthrie, Wade) are out, though the starting five is intact, and the receiver/TE losses are negligible because those players were not contributing. The Vizzina downgrade to questionable is the insurance-policy story: Reynolds is the starter, but if the true freshman gets hurt, Clemson's backup is a quarterback with a brace on his throwing elbow 3. 15 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS INJURY UPDATES MEDICAL items only, two separate inputs. The suspension/disciplinary absences (C.J. Sadler, Keeyun Chapman) are non-medical and appear in the roster section, not here. Live web research: DE Melkart Abou Jaoude — Questionable (hand/wrist, suffered vs. TCU, missed the ETSU game with his hand in a cast; program insiders are optimistic he returns, possibly a game-time decision) 17 LB Jordan Avinger — Questionable (true freshman, listed on the ACC availability report) 18 TE Jordan Washington — Out (third straight game, offseason injury) 6 WR Carnell Warren — Out 18 DL Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu — Out 6 DL Vodney Cleveland — Out 6 DL Viliami Moala — Out 6 OL Jonah Rodriguez — Listed on injury report (removed from the Friday report, suggesting he is available) 36 Injury feed: 2 The stored feed lists the same UNC-relevant items: Abou Jaoude questionable 17, Avinger questionable 18, Washington out 6, Warren out 18, and Rodriguez listed on the injury report 6. Abou Jaoude is the single most important medical name in this game. He led the ACC with 10.5 sacks a season ago, and his availability is the difference between UNC having one elite pass rusher (Xavier Lewis, 4 sacks) or two 177. The three defensive line absences (Alo-Suliafu, Cleveland, Moala) thin UNC's interior rotation, but the starters — Lewis and Isaiah Johnson — are the ones that matter against Clemson's run game, and they are healthy 29. The offensive line news is positive: Rodriguez came off the Friday report, suggesting the O-line rotation is healthier than it was earlier in the week 3. None of these injuries change the core matchup calculus — UNC's defense is intact where it counts, and its best pass rusher is a coin flip. 16 KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS The individual battles that decide the game, tied back to the PPA and advanced numbers above. UNC CBs Tre Miller and Jaiden Patterson vs. Clemson WRs T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. — This is the marquee fight. Moore (+7.19 PPA, team-best 134 yards and a touchdown) and Wesco are the only positive constants in Clemson's offense, and Belichick called them "as good as anybody we'll see all year" 2627. Miller and Patterson, with nickel Kaleb Cost and safety Greg Smith as a robber, will bracket the Tigers' top two targets 27. If a true freshman quarterback can just get them the ball, Clemson's talent advantage at receiver is the one mismatch that can overcome the line-of-scrimmage problems. Clemson DEs Will Heldt and Jahiem Lawson vs. UNC OTs Jordan Hall and Shaq McRoy — Heldt is a projected top-100 NFL pick and teams with Lawson to form Clemson's best pass-rush duo 27. This is described as the first major test for UNC's offensive line, and it is the pressure valve for everything else: if Heldt and Lawson make Billy Edwards uncomfortable, UNC's methodical offense becomes a checkdown offense 27. Edwards has thrown for 476 yards and has 20.4 passing PPA, but nearly all of it comes from the quick game to Thurman and the receivers 1. UNC DT Xavier Lewis and the pass rush vs. Clemson's offensive line — The Post and Courier calls this the biggest matchup edge of the game. Clemson has allowed 22 tackles for loss — last nationally — and six sacks; UNC has seven sacks, 14th nationally, led by Lewis's four 7. If Melkart Abou Jaoude plays, it becomes a three-headed rush against a line that has demonstrated it cannot handle one. This is the matchup that could break Tait Reynolds's debut. UNC RBs Jaylen McGill, Demon June and Benjamin Hall vs. Clemson DTs Andy Buburija, Amare Adams and Devarrick Woods — UNC's three-back rotation plus a steady interior O-line against Clemson's undermanned interior 27. The advanced numbers make this the widest gap of the game: UNC's 90.6th-percentile line yards vs. Clemson's 10.9th-percentile run defense 1. McGill (+7.63) and June (+5.29) are both positive PPA runners, and Woods was elevated to co-starter this week precisely because Clemson's interior has been a liability 29. UNC TE Jelani Thurman vs. Clemson's defense — Swinney called Thurman a "Waldo" — the player you must locate on every snap 10. Thurman has 8 catches and a touchdown and leads the team in receiving PPA (+9.31), and Clemson's defense gave up a broken-coverage touchdown against Georgia Southern that a fifth-year quarterback like Edwards would exploit 287. If Tom Allen's scheme takes away Thurman, it removes the centerpiece of UNC's passing attack. 17 CLEMSON TIGERS ROSTER UPDATES NON-INJURY roster news, led by the verified transfer-portal group, then the researched news. Transfer portal (verified CFBD entries): 1 DIRECTION PLAYER POS FROM/TO STARS Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 11 of 15
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In Markus Strong DL Oklahoma 3 In London Merritt EDGE Colorado 3 In Chris Johnson Jr. RB SMU 3 In Donovan Starr CB Auburn 3 In Elliot Washington II CB Penn State 3 In Devarrick Woods DL Texas State 3 In Jaylen Brown-Wallace WR Wingate 3 In Corey Myrick S Southern Miss 3 In Jerome Carter III S Old Dominion 3 In CJ Wesley EDGE Howard 3 In Kourtney Kelly DL West Georgia 3 Out Stephiylan Green DL LSU 4 Out Marquise Henderson RB Samford 4 Out Caden Story DL (no destination) 4 Out Khalil Barnes S Georgia 3 Out Rowan Byrne IOL North Carolina 3 Out Shelton Lewis CB Arkansas 3 Out Markus Dixon EDGE Oregon 3 Researched news: The defining roster change is at quarterback — true freshman Tait Reynolds will start, making him the earliest freshman QB starter at Clemson in more than 50 years, with Christopher Vizzina moving to backup 10353639. Defensive tackle Vic Burley was reinstated from an August suspension (public disorderly conduct) and is available for the ACC opener, though he did not appear on the two-deep 3736. Transfer Devarrick Woods, granted a fifth year of eligibility, was elevated to co-starter at both defensive tackle spots after a solid start 36. The Tigers' portal class was heavy on secondary and defensive-line reinforcements, with five of the 11 incoming players at corner/safety and another four on the D-line 1. 18 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS ROSTER UPDATES NON-INJURY roster news, led by the verified transfer-portal group, then the researched news. Transfer portal (verified CFBD entries): 1 DIRECTION PLAYER POS FROM/TO STARS In Jelani Thurman TE Ohio State 3 In Jordan Washington TE Texas 3 In Trech Kekahuna WR Wisconsin 3 In Miles O'Neill QB Texas A&M 3 In Billy Edwards Jr. QB Wisconsin 3 In Kaleb Jackson RB LSU 3 In Shaq McRoy OT Arkansas 3 In Jaylen Harvey EDGE Penn State 3 In Donovan Hoilette EDGE Richmond 3 In Ade Willie CB Michigan State 3 In Rowan Byrne IOL Clemson 3 Out D'Antre Robinson DL Oregon 4 Out Mikai Gbayor LB Florida State 4 Out Khmori House LB Arkansas 4 Out Bryce Baker QB Virginia Tech 3 Out Davion Gause RB NC State 3 Out Miles McVay OT Mississippi State 3 Researched news: This is a roster in visible turmoil around the edges. Freshman WR Keeyun Chapman was suspended indefinitely after a misdemeanor concealed-handgun charge from a Tuesday night traffic stop 4024. Freshman WR C.J. Sadler — fourth on the team with four catches for 73 yards and +5.15 PPA — is out for the game after being cited for driving 60 mph in a 35 mph zone, one of three speeding citations he has received since August 222041. Defensive coordinator Steve Belichick resigned effective Oct. 27, with Brian Belichick making the defensive calls, and general manager Michael Lombardi resigned effective Sept. 3 as the school concluded its investigation into the program's Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 12 of 15
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culture 4042. The portal build, meanwhile, is the most aggressive in Belichick's tenure — 19 incoming transfers, headlined by Edwards, Thurman and the Penn State edge duo of Harvey and Hoilette 1. 19 CLEMSON TIGERS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Practice participation, scrimmage results and camp reporting from the week leading into the ACC opener. Tait Reynolds took the first-team reps all week after being named the starter, and offensive coordinator Chad Morris explicitly asked him to keep it simple: "Do the routine things. Don't try to be above and beyond what you're capable of doing. Just play within the system" 4438. The game plan is built around staying ahead of the chains, protecting the football, and making the right RPO reads — Reynolds fumbled on a quarterback power run against Georgia Southern that ended a scoring drive, and ball security has been the week's emphasis 30. A graduate senior offensive lineman said the line's "wounds are self-inflicted" and that protecting the freshman is the unit's top job 45. Wednesday's practice report had Dabo Swinney detailing the receiver rotation — Gordon Sellars III earned first-off-the-bench duties while Tristan Smith "went backwards in camp" and is dropping balls — and rating tight end blocking by Olsen Patt-Henry and Christian Bentancur as "just okay. Everybody has to be better" 46. Vizzina wore a brace on his injured elbow in practice all week, and his status moved from probable to questionable by Friday, leaving Reynolds as the clear starter with an uncertain emergency option behind him 3. Clemson's preparation has been about fixing self-inflicted errors — penalties, third-down failures and missed scoring opportunities — with Swinney calling the ACC opener a chance for a fresh start and "our best game to this point" 10. 20 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Practice participation, scrimmage results and camp reporting from the Tar Heels' week. Belichick has spent the week preparing for the environment as much as the opponent, saying the Tar Heels are heading into a "real hostile environment" and have practiced crowd-noise situations on offense 48. He also framed Clemson's attack as a sideline-to-sideline, line-of- scrimmage-to-goal-line problem, singling out receivers Moore and Wesco as forcing UNC to defend the entire field 26. On the quarterback decision, Belichick said Vizzina and Reynolds are similar because both can run, and UNC's preparation accounts for quarterback runs regardless of who takes the snap 31. The defensive game plan is being run without the listed defensive coordinator: Steve Belichick resigned during the week, and Brian Belichick has been making the calls 4031. Abou Jaoude's status was the week's dominant availability storyline — he sat out the ETSU game with his hand in a cast, and the program appears prepared to take the decision to kickoff 17. UNC enters the game with seven sacks, tied for 11th nationally, and its official game notes tout that pass rush as the identity of the defense 49. The Tar Heels' preparation has been notably disciplined given the chaos around the program: two receivers suspended, a coordinator resigned, a GM resigned, and an investigation concluded — yet the on-field product through two weeks has been the best it has looked in the Belichick era. 21 CLEMSON TIGERS VS NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS MEDIA MATCHUP ANALYSIS What the national and local media, analysts and coaches are saying about this game — and where the disagreement lives. The media is split almost down the middle, which is exactly what a three-point line with heavy movement looks like. The Post and Courier's staff prediction is North Carolina 17, Clemson 14, citing UNC's pass rush and the challenge facing a true freshman quarterback in his first start 7. ESPN's SP+, on the other hand, projects Clemson 25, North Carolina 21, essentially matching the market 50. CBS Sports' SportsLine model, after 10,000 simulations, projects an Over play at 43.5 and calls it a competitive scoring game 51. FanDuel Research's best bets lean Under 44.5, Edwards over 203.5 passing yards, and Shipp over 5.5 receptions 52. The line opened Clemson -6.5 and was bet down to -3.5 by game week, with the total dropping from 44.5 to 43.5 as money came in on the Tar Heels 2351. The analytical consensus, such as it is, says this is a defensive, low-scoring ACC opener. The sharpest single stat in the local coverage: Clemson is 3-of-27 on third down (third-worst nationally) while UNC's defense allows opponents to convert 47% of third downs (121st) 10. Belichick spent the week publicly respecting Clemson's skill talent — "as good as anybody we'll see all year" — while Swinney spent it calling UNC tight end Jelani Thurman a "Waldo" that his defense must account for on every snap 2610. The local media sees the Tar Heels' disciplined, efficient two-game body of work and the Tigers' disorganized one and concludes the favorite is vulnerable; the models see Clemson's talent and home field and conclude the market has overcorrected. 22 GAME CONDITIONS AND BETTING CONTEXT The forecast and the stage, plus the market's numbers: what the conditions do to this specific matchup, and where the betting has landed. The Game Conditions chart shows fair weather in Death Valley: 85.1°F, dew point 71.6, humidity 64%, no precipitation, and wind at just 4.5 mph out of the east-northeast 1. The venue is open-air Memorial Stadium, natural grass, 81,500 capacity, 206 meters of elevation — negligible altitude, no dome to nullify anything 1. The wind is a non-factor; it will not suppress downfield passing. The heat and humidity are the real story: a noon kickoff in mid-80s with high dew point favors conditioning and the running game, and both of those point toward UNC's ground- and-possession attack against Clemson's thinned defensive line. The hostile capacity crowd is the counterweight for the home team, and Belichick has already acknowledged UNC prepared specifically for that 48. Against the spread, Clemson is 0-2 with an average cover margin of -17.75 — they have failed to cover by nearly 18 points per game — while North Carolina is 1-1 with a +4.5 average 1. The market is Clemson -3 with a total of 44.5 (Bovada, DraftKings), and the pregame win probability is 58.2% for the home team 1. The statistical baseline puts Clemson's win probability at 61.4% 1. The gap between the market's 58.2% and the baseline's 61.4% is small, but the direction matters: the market is slightly more skeptical of Clemson than the ratings are, which Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 13 of 15
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is consistent with the line's journey from -6.5 to -3. 23 FINAL PREDICTION Clemson wins this game, and it will be ugly enough that nobody enjoys it. My number: Clemson 21, North Carolina 17. The statistical baseline — a 50/50 blend of the ratings consensus and the market — projected Clemson 23, North Carolina 19, a consensus margin of 3.9 with a total of 41.4 1. I am moving the total down about 3.5 points while holding the margin roughly flat, because the evidence for a low-scoring game is overwhelming: Clemson's offense ranks 1.4th percentile in PPA and 0.7th percentile in success rate, UNC's defense ranks 98.6th percentile at suppressing explosive plays, UNC's own offense generates almost no explosives (10.9th percentile), and the Tar Heels are missing their fourth-leading receiver 122. The margin stays near the baseline because Clemson's defense is the best unit on the field by FPI, the Tigers own the Elo gap (1558 vs. 1395) and a 95-point talent advantage, and North Carolina is playing its first road game in full-scale program chaos 14042. The market: Clemson -3, total 44.5 1. At a projected margin of four, the play is Clemson -3, and at a projected 38 combined points, the play is Under 44.5. The closing-line movement — from -6.5 down to -3 — tells you the public has fallen in love with the Tar Heels, but my projection still has the home team covering by a single point of margin. If you need to bet it, that is the side. If you don't need to bet it, the total is the cleaner play of the two. The case, in three beats. First, the single widest matchup gap in this game runs backward for Clemson: their offensive line has allowed 22 tackles for loss (last nationally) and six sacks, and now faces a UNC front with seven sacks and, potentially, the ACC's reigning sacks leader — against a true freshman making his first start 717. That is why Clemson's scoring stays in the teens. Second, the counterweight: Clemson's defense is quietly trending up (from +0.38 PPA allowed vs. LSU to -0.10 vs. Georgia Southern), it is better by FPI, and it faces a UNC offense that is efficient but entirely non-explosive and has lost its fourth-leading receiver 122. Death Valley at 85 degrees with UNC missing two receivers to a traffic stop and its defensive coordinator in resignation limbo is the wrong environment for a first road game of the Belichick era 4020. Third, the models that matter most — SP+ and Elo — both say Clemson is the better team, and the market has already discounted that edge to just three points 1. At -3 against a team whose only quality win is a 15-10 slog, I'll take the home favorite and the under. THE VERDICT · The projected final score, win probability, the model's spread set against the market and the pick that comparison implies — the report's bottom line in one card. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. Vizzina downgraded to questionable on Friday availability report (The Clemson Insider) https://www.theclemsoninsider.com/2026/09/18/friday-availability-report-for-clemson-unc/ 4. Markus Strong out for season with lower leg injury (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/clemson/football/initial-injury-report-revealed-for-clemson- matchup-against-north-carolina 5. Clemson football news: Tigers QB probable to play vs. North Carolina (ClutchPoints) 28. Clemson's defense must locate UNC TE Jelani Thurman on every snap (Rubbing The Rock) https://rubbingtherock.com/tom-allen-defense-has-to-be-the-driving-force-for-clemson- during-acc-opener-vs-unc 29. Clemson DT Devarrick Woods elevated to co-starter to boost interior pressure (The Clemson Insider) https://www.theclemsoninsider.com/2026/09/17/north-carolina-at-clemson-5-things-to-watch- for/ 30. The Clemson Insider (The Clemson Insider) https://www.theclemsoninsider.com/2026/09/17/belichick-unc-defense-aiming-for-tigers- freshman-qb/ Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 14 of 15
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https://clutchpoints.com/ncaa-football/clemson-football-news-tigers-qb-north-carolina 6. Heel Tough Blog: Availability Report- Week 3 (vs. Clemson) (Heel Tough Blog) https://www.heeltoughblog.com/post/heel-tough-blog-availability-report-week-3-vs-clemson 7. Final predictions for Clemson football vs. North Carolina (The Post and Courier) https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/clemson/clemson-football-north-carolina-final- predictions-keys/article_388d65d8-a605-4212-94e7-92db0513c17e.html 8. North Carolina at Clemson - 09/19/26 - DRatings.com https://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa-football-predictions/c1505f3d-f75f-532a-a2da- 46962f74e60b 9. Promises came and went: A look into the current Clemson QB fiasco - The Tiger https://thetigercu.com/31386/sports/football/clemson-quarterback-fiasco-tait-reynolds- vizzina-klubnik-football-analysis/ 10. Tigers testing mettle against Tar Heels | Sports | upstatetoday.com (Upstate Today) https://upstatetoday.com/sports/tigers-testing-mettle-against-tar-heels/article_fc3e4844- 1a0e-4665-bbce-b21763a220f0.html 11. UNC Football: Availability report vs. Clemson released https://tarheelswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/tarheels/football/2026/09/16/unc- football-availability-report-vs-clemson-released/91801575007/ 12. 2026 Week 3 College FB Games: Tar Heels Tigers Injury Report - BetIQ https://betiq.teamrankings.com/college-football/matchups/tar-heels-tigers-week-3- 2026/injury-report/ 13. LSU QB Sam Leavitt not listed on Friday SEC availability report, on track to start vs Ole Miss (NOLA.com) https://www.nola.com/sports/lsu/sam-leavitt-injury-update-lsu-football-ole-miss-lane- kiffin/article_4cc0bcc9-56ac-435d-b7cf-f2c5077323e0.html 14. LSU leading tackler TJ Dottery remains questionable vs Ole Miss (ESPN) https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/49976012/lsu-qb-sam-leavitt-not-listed-sec- availability-report 15. LSU WR Phillip Wright III ruled out for Ole Miss game (And The Valley Shook) https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/lsu-tigers-news/53151/fridays-lsu-and-ole-miss-injury- report-leavitt-removed-entirely 16. LSU LB Tylen Singleton listed as probable vs Ole Miss (TigerDroppings) https://www.tigerdroppings.com/lsu-football/latest-sam-leavitt-update-arrives-on-fridays-lsu- ole-miss-injury-report/124863458/ 17. Melkart Abou Jaoude questionable for Clemson; UNC insiders optimistic he plays (Keeping It Heel) https://keepingitheel.com/melkart-abou-jaoude-s-status-remains-up-in-the-air-ahead-of-unc- clemson-showdown 18. True freshman LB Jordan Avinger questionable at Clemson (Tar Heel Times) https://www.tarheeltimes.com/article168714.aspx 19. Clemson vs. North Carolina team injuriy reports ahead of Week 3 game https://clemsonwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/clemson/football/2026/09/18/clemson- football-injury-report-player-availability-north-carolina-game/91822265007/ 20. UNC football players cited after a traffic stop, one on gun charge. Now they’re out against Clemson :: WRAL.com (WRAL) https://www.wral.com/sports/northcarolina-players-cited-speeding-carrying-concealed- weapon-september-2026/ 21. UNC football releases availability report for Clemson game – Sixthboy (Sixthboy) https://sixthboy.com/unc-football-releases-availability-report-for-clemson-game/ 22. The Clemson Insider (The Clemson Insider) https://www.theclemsoninsider.com/2026/09/17/bad-news-for-north-carolina-2/ 23. North Carolina at Clemson: Time, TV, Odds and What to Watch - NCFootballNews (NCFootballNews) https://ncfootballnews.com/games/unc-at-clemson-football-time-tv-game-info-2026/ 24. North Carolina suspends Keeyun Chapman indefinitely following arrest https://keepingitheel.com/north-carolina-suspends-keeyun-chapman-indefinitely-following- arrest 25. Dylan Stewart probable for Mississippi State after back injury recovery (The Post and Courier) https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/carolina/gamecocks-dylan-stewart-injuries-jacarrius- peak/article_0b965ad6-e040-4e12-972b-288d9ed9ab6f.html 26. Belichick: Clemson's Wesco and Moore are as good as any WR duo UNC will see (Tar Heels Wire) https://tarheelswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/tarheels/football/2026/09/18/unc- football-bill-belichick-clemson-tigers-offense-september-19/91816148007/ 27. UNC corners Tre Miller and Jaiden Patterson draw the assignment vs Moore and Wesco (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/unc/tar-heels-3-key-football-matchups-against-clemson-week-2 31. UNC football: Bill Belichick sees similarities in Clemson quarterbacks (Tar Heels Wire) https://tarheelswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/tarheels/football/2026/09/17/unc- football-bill-belichick-clemson-tigers-christoper-vizzina-tait-reynolds-september- 19/91814582007/ 32. Clemson vs North Carolina Q&A with The Daily Tar Heel | Shakin The Southland https://www.shakinthesouthland.com/clemson-football/29733/clemson-vs-north-carolina-qa- with-the-daily-tar-heel 33. North Carolina at Clemson Matchup Preview | CFBTrack https://cfbtrack.com/games/matchup/2026/401858229 34. Week 3 Analytics Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels | Shakin The Southland (Shakin' The Southland (SB Nation)) https://www.shakinthesouthland.com/clemson-football/29728/week-3-analytics-preview- north-carolina-tar-heels 35. Tait Reynolds becomes earliest true freshman QB starter at Clemson in more than 50 years (Fox Carolina) https://www.foxcarolina.com/2026/09/18/tait-reynolds-will-become-earliest-freshman-start- qb-clemson-more-than-50-years/ 36. Clemson depth chart lists Reynolds as starting QB and Vizzina as backup for UNC (The Clemson Insider) https://www.theclemsoninsider.com/2026/09/16/clemsons-depth-chart-for-unc-game/ 37. Vic Burley reinstated from suspension, available for North Carolina game (Charlotte Newsroom) https://charlottenewsroom.com/2026/09/17/clemson-names-freshman-tait-reynolds-starting- quarterback-for-north-carolina-game/ 38. The Clemson Insider (The Clemson Insider) https://www.theclemsoninsider.com/2026/09/17/reynolds-on-first-start-its-not-about-me/ 39. Tait Reynolds will become earliest freshman to start at QB for Clemson in more than 50 years https://www.live5news.com/2026/09/17/tait-reynolds-will-become-earliest-freshman-start-qb- clemson-more-than-50-years/ 40. UNC suspends freshman WR Keeyun Chapman indefinitely after gun charge (Tar Heel Tribune) https://tarheeltribune.com/2026/09/17/steve-belichick-resigns-as-unc-concludes-probe-in-to- football-program-wr-chapman-suspended/ 41. WRAL: Sadler has three speeding citations since August; two other UNC players listed out also have speeding history (WRAL) https://www.wral.com/news/local/wral-investigates-new-questions-football-players-speeding- sept-2026/ 42. UNC concludes football-program investigation; GM Michael Lombardi already resigned (WRAL) https://www.wral.com/sports/unc-football-investigators-affirm-they-probed-drugs-sex-culture- allegations-september-2026/ 43. UNC shows faith in Bill Belichick’s control of football program. It also offers a warning :: WRAL.com https://www.wral.com/sports/northcarolina-bill-belchick-investigation-control-of-football- program-september-2026/ 44. Chad Morris wants Tait Reynolds to keep it simple ahead of first career start (Clemson Sports Talk) https://clemsonsportstalk.com/s/12571/chad-morris-wants-tait-reynolds-to-keep-it-simple- ahead-of-first-career-start 45. Clemson offensive lineman says offensive line's 'wounds are self-inflicted' (The Clemson Insider) https://www.theclemsoninsider.com/2026/09/18/offensive-lineman-says-wounds-are-self- inflicted/ 46. Swinney's Wednesday practice report: receiver rotation, tight end blocking (The Clemson Insider) https://www.theclemsoninsider.com/2026/09/16/swinneys-wednesday-practice-report-76/ 47. The Clemson Insider https://www.theclemsoninsider.com/2026/08/20/thursdays-clemson-scrimmage-notes-worst- practice-of-camp/ 48. Belichick says Tar Heels are preparing for hostile Death Valley environment (Tar Heels Wire) https://tarheelswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/tarheels/football/2026/09/18/unc- football-bill-belichick-clemson-tigers-memorial-stadium-september-19/91815926007/ 49. UNC has seven sacks entering ACC opener at Clemson (University of North Carolina Athletics) https://goheels.com/news/2026/9/18/football-to-open-acc-play-at-clemson-saturday 50. Clemson football vs. North Carolina final score prediction from ESPN's SP+ (Clemson Wire (USA Today)) https://clemsonwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/clemson/football/2026/09/17/clemson- football-north-carolina-score-prediction-win-probability-espn/91790663007/ 51. UNC vs. Clemson odds, prediction: SportsLine model reveals picks for Week 3 (CBS Sports) https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/north-carolina-clemson-prediction-odds-time-2026- week-3-college-football-picks/ 52. North Carolina vs Clemson: 3 best bets and 3 best player props (FanDuel Research) https://www.fanduel.com/research/north-carolina-vs-clemson-prediction-3-best-bets-and-3- best-player-props-saturday 53. Clemson vs. North Carolina score predictions for Week 3 matchup (Clemson Wire (USA Today)) https://clemsonwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/clemson/football/2026/09/18/clemson- football-score-predictions-north-carolina-matchup/91831267007/ Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 15 of 15
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