Florida State vs SMU
Game played Sep 7, 2026 · Published August 30, 2026 at 7:25 PM · 13 pages
Projected score, total and win probability for Florida State vs SMU, priced against the betting line — with injuries, form and the key statistical mismatches.
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A F P L N A C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L M A T C H U P R E P O R T V S Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D A U G U S T 3 0 , 2 0 2 6 0 7 : 1 1 P M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Matchup Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 SP Ratings 04 ELO Ratings 05 FPI Ratings 06 SRS Ratings 07 Advanced Team Stats 08 Returning Production 09 Team Talent 10 Team PPA 11 Player PPA 12 Team Season Stats 13 Adjusted Team Metrics 14 Florida State Seminoles Injury Updates 15 SMU Mustangs Injury Updates 16 Key Player Matchups 17 Florida State Seminoles Roster Updates 18 SMU Mustangs Roster Updates 19 Florida State Seminoles Practice and Scrimmage Updates 20 SMU Mustangs Practice and Scrimmage Updates 21 Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs Media Matchup Analysis 22 Game Conditions and Betting Context 23 Final Prediction
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01 MATCHUP OVERVIEW This section sets the stage for an ACC meeting at Doak Campbell Stadium, including the real series history, what each team is walking in with, and the broadcast. Florida State hosts SMU on ESPN in a 2026 ACC game that is already carrying more weight than a typical September date. The Seminoles are 1-0 after a 34-17 home win over New Mexico State; the Mustangs have not played yet and open their season on the road in Tallahassee. The market has already made its feelings known — Florida State is a home underdog — and the last time these programs met, it was not close. 1 Build the history only from the series file, because the file is the record. SMU leads the all-time series 1-0. The only meeting on the books is 2024 Week 5 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, where SMU beat Florida State 42-16. There is no older chapter to romanticize and no home win for the Seminoles to point to. That 26-point night in Dallas is the entire head-to-head, and it is the tape Rhett Lashlee’s staff will happily put on the projector. Florida State is trying to prove the New Mexico State win was a start rather than a costume; SMU is trying to prove the 2024 result was a preview. 1 What is at stake is the first true ACC measuring stick of the year. Florida State has a completed game, a depth chart that has already taken hits, and a coach whose margin for a sloppy night is thinner than the program’s recruiting composite. SMU walks in with the better SP+ and FPI numbers, a quarterback who returned nearly all of last year’s passing production, and the memory of hanging 42 on this same opponent. Doak Campbell holds 67,277, it is open-air grass, and the forecast is not a dome. The Mustangs have never needed a better road script. The Seminoles have never needed a cleaner answer to 42-16. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like-for-like from one game to the next. GAME CONDITIONS · The forecast and the ground it will be played on: temperature, wind and precipitation beside the stadium's surface, roof, capacity and elevation. Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 2 of 13
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POWER RATING DASHBOARD · SP+, FPI and Elo side by side. SP+ and FPI are points-above-average ratings; the SP+ defensive rating counts down, so a lower bar is the better defense. Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 3 of 13
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EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always the better number regardless of which way the raw stat runs. MISMATCH MATRIX · Each offense measured directly against the defense it will face. Bars show the percentile gap; the longer the bar, the wider that specific unit-vs-unit edge. Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 4 of 13
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SEASON FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added. This is where you see a team trending up or falling apart, which season averages hide. TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA. Cross-reference this against the injury and roster sections. Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 5 of 13
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ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT · How much production each team returned from last season, alongside the recruiting talent composite. PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM · What each rating system independently projects, plus the market line and the blended consensus used as the model's anchor. Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 6 of 13
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WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · The consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. The shaded area on each side is that team's win probability. 03 SP RATINGS SP+ is a points-above-average rating that estimates how many points better or worse a team is than a theoretically average FBS opponent; a lower defensive rating is the better defense. TEAM OVERALL OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TEAMS Florida State 9.1 29.8 20.4 -0.3 SMU 12.1 32.5 20.1 -0.4 FBS average -0.52 25.7 26.2 0.01 SMU holds the overall edge at 12.1 to 9.1, which is a three-point gap before home field is applied, and the Power Rating Dashboard will show that same lean across the other systems. Both offenses sit well above the national offensive average of 25.7, with SMU’s 32.5 a clearer step up than Florida State’s 29.8. Both defenses are well better than the national defensive average of 26.2 — SMU at 20.1, Florida State at 20.4 — so this is not a track meet on paper so much as two above-average attacks running into two above-average fronts. Special teams are a wash: both are slightly below average, Florida State at -0.3 and SMU at -0.4. 1 The shape of those numbers matters more than the overall. SMU’s offensive rating is the best unit in the matchup, and Florida State’s defensive rating is not the thing that closes that gap. A 2.7-point offensive edge for the Mustangs, paired with essentially identical defensive ratings, is why the raw SP+ margin in the baseline lands at SMU by 0.6 even after 2.4 points of home-field advantage are added back. Florida State’s path is not “out-talent them on the perimeter.” It is to make the game about line yards, havoc, and whether Kevin Jennings is actually past the finger issue. If this turns into a clean passing night, SP+ already told you who is built for that. 1 04 ELO RATINGS Elo is a head-to-head power rating that updates from wins, losses and the quality of the opponent; a gap of 25 Elo points is roughly one point of scoring margin. Florida State’s 2026 Elo is 1559. SMU’s Elo is not in the feed, so the head-to-head Elo gap cannot be computed and should not be invented. 1 A 1559 Elo is a respectable Power 4 number, not a playoff-club number. It describes a team that should beat the New Mexico States of the world and then have to prove it against anyone with a real quarterback. Without an SMU reading, Elo cannot cast a vote in the Projected Margin by System the way SP+ and FPI can. That absence is itself information: this preview is being driven by points-based ratings and one week of Florida State tape, not by a closed Elo loop. Treat 1559 as a floor on Florida State’s résumé, not as evidence they are the better side on Monday night. 05 FPI RATINGS FPI is ESPN’s points-above-average rating: how many points a team would be expected to win or lose by against an average opponent. TEAM FPI FPI RANK (RESUME) STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE RANK Florida State 7.97 32 22 SMU 11.12 24 49 SMU is 3.15 FPI points better than Florida State before venue, 11.12 to 7.97, and the resume ranks agree: SMU 24th, Florida State 32nd. Florida State’s remaining schedule is graded as tougher (SOS 22 versus SMU’s 49), which is a 2026 problem, not a Week 1 alibi. The baseline converts that FPI gap plus 2.4 points of home field into an FPI margin of SMU by 0.75 — almost identical to the SP+ call of SMU by 0.6. 1 When two independent points-above-average systems spit out the same lean, you do not talk yourself out of it because the home team just beat New Mexico State. FPI does not care that Doak was loud for a Group of 5 visitor. It cares that SMU’s expected point differential against an average opponent is higher, and that Florida State’s strength-of-record and game-control ranks are being carried by a single win. The FPI gap is not huge — three points is a field goal, not a canyon — but it is clean, it matches SP+, and it is why the market already made Florida State a home underdog. Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 7 of 13
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06 SRS RATINGS No data was available for that section. 07 ADVANCED TEAM STATS These are play-by-play efficiency numbers — success rate, explosiveness, predicted points added per play, line yards, havoc and points per scoring opportunity — with national percentiles from the Efficiency Profile; SMU has no 2026 advanced profile yet. METRIC FLORIDA STATE RAW NATIONAL PERCENTILE DIRECTION Off. PPA/play 0.360 87.5 Higher better Off. success rate 46.9% 75.0 Higher better Off. explosiveness 1.32 81.2 Higher better Off. line yards 3.91 87.5 Higher better Off. pts/opportunity 4.86 87.5 Higher better Def. PPA/play 0.193 50.0 Lower better Def. success rate 34.5% 75.0 Lower better Def. explosiveness 1.75 6.2 Lower better Def. line yards 2.91 62.5 Lower better Def. havoc 19.0% 75.0 Higher better Florida State’s offense against New Mexico State was the real thing on the ground. A 0.360 PPA per play (87th percentile), 3.91 line yards (87th), and 4.86 points per scoring opportunity (87th) is how you hang 34 on someone you are supposed to hang 34 on. Rushing PPA was 0.455 on 55% of snaps; passing PPA was 0.378 on 42% of snaps, with the explosive number on passing plays a healthy 2.05. They converted scoring chances. They were not stuffed (8.6% stuff rate). That is the tape SMU has to respect, especially with rain in the forecast. 1 The defensive profile is the problem, and it is not subtle. Success rate allowed of 34.5% sits at the 75th percentile — they can win downs — and havoc at 19% is also 75th. Then you look at explosiveness allowed, 1.75, and the percentile is 6.2. That is a defense that gets stops until it doesn’t, and when it doesn’t the play is a chunk. Passing-downs PPA allowed was 0.532; passing-play PPA allowed was 0.511 on 64% of opponent snaps. New Mexico State threw for 272 yards and two scores on 26- of-43. If that is what a Group of 5 passing game did to this secondary, Kevin Jennings is not going to need an invitation. The Efficiency Profile will show a shiny offensive ring and a defensive explosiveness hole you could drive a Mustang through. 1 08 RETURNING PRODUCTION Returning production measures how much of last season’s predicted points added came back, split by pass, rush and receiving — the continuity underneath the new roster. TEAM TOTAL PPA RETURNED % OF PPA PASSING % RECEIVING % RUSHING % USAGE RETURNED Florida State 162.9 40.1% 12.5% 65.2% 28.2% 30.5% SMU 219.8 56.9% 96.6% 37.2% 0.9% 57.8% The Roster Continuity & Talent chart is going to look lopsided in two different directions. SMU brought back 56.9% of its PPA and 96.6% of its passing PPA — that is a quarterback-driven roster that kept the one thing that makes the offense go. Rushing PPA returned is 0.9%, which is a polite way of saying the Mustangs did not keep a run game. Florida State returned only 40.1% of total PPA and just 12.5% of passing PPA, but 65.2% of receiving PPA. The skill-play catchers are back; the old quarterback production is not. 1 That split is the game’s personality. SMU can line up and throw with a quarterback who is, by the returning-production math, last year’s passing offense in a new season. Florida State has to manufacture quarterback play from a new source — and the Week 0 PPA says that source is Ashton Daniels, not a recycled star — while leaning on a receiving room that actually came back and a run game that just posted 87th-percentile line yards. If Jennings is healthy, SMU’s continuity is a loaded gun. If Florida State cannot run it again, the 12.5% passing-PPA return becomes a cliff. 09 TEAM TALENT The 247 composite talent score is a recruiting-based roster value: the raw recruiting base sitting under the depth chart, not the production those players have posted. TEAM TALENT COMPOSITE Florida State 800.2 SMU 764.5 Florida State still has the better recruiting base, 800.2 to 764.5, a 35.7-point gap that the Roster Continuity & Talent chart will show as a Seminoles edge even as the power ratings lean the other way. That is the Florida State argument in one number: they should be bigger, more explosive on the edges, and deeper when the game becomes a substitution contest in September humidity. 1 Talent does not sack the quarterback by itself, and it did not prevent 42-16 in Dallas in 2024. SMU has spent the portal cycle buying the production Florida State’s composite is supposed to represent, and the SP+/FPI lean says they succeeded. Where the talent number still bites is in the secondary and on the offensive line if this becomes a war of attrition — Florida State should have the next man up, SMU just lost Abel Hoopii for the season and does not have the same recruiting floor. If the Mustangs’ starting 22 holds, talent is a trivia question. If they start leaking bodies, 800.2 is why Florida State can still steal this. 10 TEAM PPA Team PPA is predicted points added per play on offense and defense, including the week-by-week trend the Season Form Trend chart is built on. Florida State’s only 2026 data point is Week 1 against New Mexico State: offensive PPA 0.36 overall (0.38 passing, 0.46 rushing), defensive PPA 0.19 overall (0.51 passing, -0.12 rushing). Down-to-down, the offense was negative on first down (-0.02) and a wrecking ball on third down (1.10). The defense was excellent on first down (-0.15) and second down (-0.58) and then got cooked on third down (1.78). SMU has no Team PPA file. 1 Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 8 of 13
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One week is not a trend, but it is a fingerprint. Florida State wants to run (0.46 rushing PPA) and live in third-and-manageable; when they get there, they convert. When they don’t, first-down passing is a problem. Defensively the Season Form Trend will show a unit that wins early downs against the run and then pays for it on third-and-long against the pass — the same explosiveness hole in the advanced stats. SMU’s entire offensive identity, based on returning passing PPA, is built to create those third-and-medium passing downs. Florida State’s Week 1 defensive PPA of 0.51 on pass plays is the number that should keep Mike Norvell up later than the 34-17 final did. 11 PLAYER PPA Player PPA identifies the individuals who actually moved the needle, ranked by total predicted points added; the Top Individual Impact chart is this list. PLAYER POS TOTAL PPA AVG PPA PASS PPA RUSH PPA Ashton Daniels QB 9.27 0.273 10.21 2.28 Ousmane Kromah RB 6.21 0.443 0.75 5.46 Duce Robinson WR 4.28 0.714 4.28 0 Micahi Danzy WR 2.55 0.510 2.98 -0.43 Tre Wisner RB 1.94 0.276 -0.10 2.04 Jayvan Boggs WR 0.82 0.204 0.82 0 Landen Thomas TE 0.41 0.204 0.41 0 Samuel Singleton RB 0.41 0.051 0 0.41 Ashton Daniels is the Florida State offense. He accounted for 9.27 total PPA against New Mexico State, with 10.21 of it through the air, and the split underneath is the tell: -0.443 average PPA on first down, 0.698 on passing downs, 0.904 on third down. He is a closer, not an opener. Ousmane Kromah (6.21 total, 0.443 average, 5.46 rushing PPA) is the opener — 0.451 on standard downs, the back you give it to so Daniels does not have to win first-and-10 from the pocket. Duce Robinson’s 0.714 average PPA is the best per-snap mark on the roster; Micahi Danzy’s 3.817 PPA on third down is a single-game flamethrower that may or may not repeat. SMU has no player PPA in the feed, so Jennings and company will have to introduce themselves on Monday night. 1 The implication for this matchup is schematic, not sentimental. Florida State will try to live in Kromah and Tre Wisner on standard downs, then let Daniels hunt on passing downs with Robinson and Danzy. That is a coherent plan against a defense that has not taken a 2026 snap. It is also a plan that dies if the first-down PPA stays negative and SMU’s front, which SP+ grades as a 20.1 defense, puts Florida State in obvious passing downs before Kromah can dirty the game. Landen Thomas’s modest 0.41 PPA is not a mismatch by itself, but a functional tight end is how you keep a 20.1 defense from teeing off. The Top Individual Impact chart is a Seminoles-only poster until Jennings posts a number; do not confuse “we have the only names” with “we have the better ones.” 12 TEAM SEASON STATS These are the raw counting stats from Florida State’s 1-0 start; they either confirm the advanced numbers or expose the box-score lies. SMU has no 2026 counting stats. Florida State beat New Mexico State 34-17 with 419 total yards (217 rushing on 39 carries, 202 net passing on 17-of-27), 20 first downs, 8-of-14 on third down, three rushing touchdowns, one passing touchdown, one interception, three sacks and four tackles for loss. They held the ball for 1,882 seconds. They allowed 319 yards, 18 first downs, 47 rushing yards on 23 carries, 272 net passing yards on 26-of-43, 10-of-17 on third down, two passing touchdowns and one sack. Turnovers were 1-1. Penalties: 8 for 85 yards. 1 The counting stats and the advanced stats are in violent agreement on two points and one fight. Agreement one: the run game is real — 217 yards, three rushing scores, 5.6 yards per carry, and the 87th-percentile line-yard number. Agreement two: the pass defense is not — 272 yards allowed, 10 third-down conversions allowed, two passing scores, and that 6th-percentile explosiveness figure. The fight is third down on offense: 8-of-14 looks stout in the box score and matches Daniels’ 1.10 third-down PPA, but it came against New Mexico State. Steal the run game, steal the time of possession, and you have a script that can beat a better team in the rain. Let Jennings convert 10-of-17 against a secondary that already gave that away to an inferior quarterback, and the 34-17 final becomes a museum piece. 13 ADJUSTED TEAM METRICS No data was available for that section. 14 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES INJURY UPDATES Medical availability only, split by source. The official Saturday report is the list that matters; everything else is context. Live web research: The official Florida State Week 1 report lists OUT: Fentrell Cypress II (hamstring) and Ja'Khi Douglas (ankle). QUESTIONABLE: Marvin Jones Jr. (knee) and Davaughn Kirkland (shoulder). PROBABLE: Richie Leonard IV (shoulder), Jaylin Lucas (hamstring) and Ryan Fitzgerald (knee). No other players are on that report. 13 Cypress, a graduate transfer expected to start on the boundary, is out after a Wednesday hamstring, pushing Florida State toward a committee of younger corners. 6 Douglas, a projected third-down target, did not progress from a scrimmage ankle sprain and is being held out. 7 Jones Jr. had a minor knee procedure in camp, was limited all week, skipped Thursday, and is a game-time decision based on pregame warmups. 3 True freshman safety Davaughn Kirkland has a shoulder stinger and is likely special teams only if he goes. 10 Leonard is cleared from a shoulder sprain, full in 11-on-11, and says he will not wear a brace. 4 Lucas was a full participant Friday and is expected to return kicks with a managed early workload. 5 Fitzgerald was hitting from 50-plus on Friday after a knee scare. 11 Blake Nichelson practiced fully Friday and is expected back in the linebacker rotation. 8 Backup tackle Darius Washington was seen in a walking boot; status unclear, impact limited unless the starting five breaks. 9 Punter Alex Mastromanno has a quad bruise and is probable. 14 Injury feed: The stored feed corroborates the same medical board and does not add a new name that the official report missed. Leonard probable (shoulder). 2 Kirkland questionable (stinger). 2 Jones Jr. questionable (knee, game-time). 2 Lucas probable (hamstring). 2 Douglas out (ankle). 2 Nichelson probable (return to rotation). 2 Cypress out (hamstring). 2 Washington questionable (lower leg, boot). 2 Fitzgerald probable (knee). 2 Official mixed report matching the Saturday list. 2 Mastromanno probable (quad). 2 The medical picture that actually changes Monday night is Cypress and Jones Jr. Cypress out is a starting boundary corner gone against a quarterback who returned 96.6% of his passing PPA. Jones Jr. as a game-time decision is the pass-rush chip Florida State cannot afford to lose if the plan is to hurry Jennings without emptying the coverage. Douglas out thins the slot on third down, which is exactly where Daniels lived against New Mexico State. Leonard, Fitzgerald and Nichelson being probable is the good news — interior line continuity, a kicker for a game that the market thinks is a field goal, and a linebacker who can blitz. Treat Lucas as a feed item, not as a backfield savior; the verified portal has him leaving, and the backs who actually posted PPA in Week 0 are Kromah, Tre Wisner and Singleton. Kirkland Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 9 of 13
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and Washington are depth, not the engine. 15 SMU MUSTANGS INJURY UPDATES Medical availability only, split by source. SMU’s opener health is a quarterback finger, two season-ending losses, and a safety coming back from spinal surgery. Live web research: Kevin Jennings jammed a finger early in camp, missed 10–12 days, and is now back with the first team, throwing daily, with Lashlee saying the staff has this week to restore timing with the receivers. Status: probable, expected to start at full strength. 30 31 Earlier camp notes had him limited 1–2 weeks with no concern about the opener. 34 35 Offensive lineman Abel Hoopii broke his foot (surgery, roughly 3.5-month recovery) and is out for the season. Running back Link Rhodes tore his ACL and is out for the season; he had been a special-teams piece behind Kendrick Raphael. 32 Free safety Ahmaad Moses was granted a fifth year after spinal fusion surgery, has been practicing in camp, and is slated to play in the opener. 33 Injury feed: Current availability board: Jennings probable; Moses probable; Rhodes season-ending; Hoopii season-ending. 2 The feed items match the web file — Hoopii foot and Rhodes ACL as a double season-ending blow, Jennings resuming throwing with two weeks of prep, Moses cleared to return, and Jennings back with the ones as of August 30. 2 The only injury that would rewrite the power ratings is Jennings, and every current note says he is throwing with the starters. Believe that until the warmups say otherwise, but do not pretend a jammed throwing finger is a trivia item — timing with new transfer receivers is the last thing you want to be rediscovering in a road ACC opener. Hoopii’s season-ending foot is the trench tax: SMU’s offensive line just got thinner against a Florida State front that posted a 75th-percentile havoc rate and three sacks against New Mexico State. Rhodes is a special-teams loss, not an offensive identity loss, especially with rushing PPA returned already at 0.9%. Moses playing is a net plus for a Mustangs secondary that will see Robinson and Danzy on passing downs. Net medical lean: SMU’s starter is probable, Florida State’s starting boundary corner is out. That is not a wash. 16 KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS The individual battles that will decide this, tied back to Player PPA and the efficiency numbers where they exist. The first fight is Ousmane Kromah and Tre Wisner against SMU’s front seven. Kromah’s 0.443 average PPA and 5.46 rushing PPA were the Week 0 engine; Wisner added 2.04 rushing PPA. Florida State’s 3.91 line yards and 8.6% stuff rate say this offensive line can move people, even if the New Mexico State report card graded the line a D against a lesser front. 1 45 SMU’s defensive SP+ of 20.1 is the first unit that can answer that. If Kromah is still at 0.45 PPA on standard downs in the fourth quarter, Daniels never has to win first down. If SMU’s rebuilt front — portal edges Marques White and Ira Singleton are on the incoming list — stuffs those standard downs, Florida State becomes the passing-downs team Daniels was against NMSU, and that is exactly when a 20.1 defense hunts. The second fight is Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy against a Mustangs secondary that just got Ahmaad Moses back. Robinson’s 0.714 average PPA was the best per-snap mark on either roster that has a number; Danzy’s entire 2.55 total PPA was a third-down explosion. 1 Moses practicing and slated to start is SMU’s answer to the deep shot. 33 The catch: Florida State is asking Daniels to recreate passing-downs PPA of 0.698 against a real safety instead of New Mexico State. Ja'Khi Douglas being out removes a third-down slot option, so the Robinson/Danzy/Thomas group has to carry the conversion downs. 7 The third fight is Kevin Jennings against Florida State’s pass rush and a secondary missing Fentrell Cypress II. Jennings is probable and throwing with the ones. 31 Cypress is out. 6 13 Marvin Jones Jr. is a game-time decision on the edge. 3 Florida State allowed 0.511 PPA per passing play and a 6th-percentile explosiveness number to a quarterback who is not Jennings. 1 The Plant the Spear preview framed it as SMU’s veteran offensive line — minus Hoopii — against a Seminoles rush that failed to get home in Week 0 without blitzing. 40 45 If Jones Jr. sits and Cypress is already sitting, Jennings is playing seven-on-seven with pads. If Jones Jr. goes and the havoc rate from Week 0 (19%) shows up, the finger timing Lashlee is still restoring becomes the whole game. The fourth fight is Florida State’s interior line, with Richie Leonard IV probable, against SMU’s interior. 4 Leonard’s availability is the difference between a functional run game and Daniels dropping back on first down at -0.443 PPA. SMU allowed 19 sacks last year per the schedule breakdown, which is a compliment to that line, not Florida State’s. 40 True freshman left tackle Daniel Pierre Louis winning the job, if that report holds, is the kind of detail that gets a rookie eaten by a blitz-heavy ACC opener. 51 Florida State’s 87th-percentile line yards say the group can play; a freshman at left tackle against a 20.1 defense is how those percentiles go to die. 17 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster movement only. Portal first, then the researched file. Verified transfer portal: Incoming (selected, with stars): Quintrevion Wisner, RB, Texas, 4-star (0.93); Xavier Chaplin, OT, Auburn, 4-star (0.92); Mikai Gbayor, LB, North Carolina, 4-star (0.91); plus a wave of 3-stars including safeties CJ Richard Jr. and Ma'Khi Jones, EDGE Rylan Kennedy, CBs Karson Hobbs and Nehemiah Chandler, OT Chimdia Nwaiwu, DL Jordan Sanders, RBs Gemari Sands, TEs Desirrio Riles, IOL Paul Bowling and Bradyn Joiner, and QB Ashton Daniels from Auburn (3- star, 0.86). 1 Outgoing (the ones that change a Monday night): 4-star EDGE Mandrell Desir and Darryll Desir, 4-star CB Ja'Bril Rawls, 4-star S Ashlynd Barker, S Earl Little Jr. to Ohio State, WR Lawayne McCoy to Louisville, S Edwin Joseph to Ole Miss, LB Omar Graham Jr., TE Randy Pittman Jr. to SMU, EDGE Amaree Williams and Jayson Jenkins to Mississippi State, RB Jaylin Lucas to Tulane, and a long list of 3-star linemen and skill pieces. 1 Live web research: A Tallahassee Democrat report named DJ Uiagalelei the starting quarterback on August 28. 50 That sits in open conflict with the Week 0 PPA file, which has Ashton Daniels as the quarterback who actually produced 9.27 PPA against New Mexico State. 1 True freshman Daniel Pierre Louis won left tackle over Lucas Simmons. 51 An unofficial depth chart listed Jaylin Lucas as the top running back, another conflict with the verified portal sending Lucas to Tulane. 52 NCAA cleared EDGE Patrick Payton to play. 53 Safety Shyheim Brown is suspended the first half versus SMU for a team-rules violation. 54 UAB DT Chris Stalter enrolled August 25 and is eligible. 55 Hykeem Williams moved to the slot. 56 True freshman QB Luke Kromenhoek is the primary backup and will play in packages. 57 South Carolina transfer TJ Grinnage is a co-starter at corner with Jamari Howard. 58 Gus Malzahn is the sole offensive play-caller. 59 JUCO DB Dorian Strain added for special teams. 60 Landen Thomas won the starting tight end job. 61 The portal is the adult in the room. Florida State bought a 4-star back (Quintrevion Wisner), a 4-star tackle, a 4-star linebacker, and the quarterback who then went out and posted the Week 0 number. They also hemorrhaged four-star defensive backs and edges, including Earl Little Jr., which makes a first-half Brown suspension and a Cypress injury land harder than they would on a stable roster. Randy Pittman Jr. is now on the other sideline, which is the kind of petty portal poetry this sport deserves. Believe Daniels is the quarterback because he has the PPA; file Uiagalelei as a beat report that the box score did not confirm. Believe Malzahn calling it himself, because that at least explains a run-heavy, third-down-hunting script. Pierre Louis at left tackle is the roster detail that should scare anyone who just watched this line get a D against New Mexico State. 18 SMU MUSTANGS ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster movement only. Portal first, then research. Verified transfer portal: Incoming: Kendrick Raphael, RB, California, 4-star (0.92); Yannick Smith, WR, East Carolina, 4-star (0.92); Theo Melin Ohrstrom, TE, Texas A&M, 4-star (0.90); Randy Pittman Jr., TE, Florida State, 3-star (0.88); plus EDGE Marques White and Ira Singleton, CB Jayvon Thomas and Jarvis Lee, TEs Trey Jackson, LB Caden Marshall and Jamal Anderson, DL Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder and Christian Davis, WR Jalen Hale (Alabama), and QB Mabrey Mettauer (Sam Houston). 1 Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 10 of 13
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Outgoing: RB Chris Johnson Jr. to Clemson, CB Kyron Chambers to UNLV, S Elijah Pratt to UAB, IOL Paris Patterson Jr. to Texas, EDGE Billy Walton III to Oklahoma State, and a long list of linebackers, edges and specialists, including kicker Collin Rogers to Florida Atlantic. RB TJ Harden’s outgoing stamp is dated August 20. 1 Live web research: No additional non-injury roster news was available for this section. SMU did not rebuild so much as restock the skill positions around a quarterback they already had. Raphael at 4-star running back is the theoretical answer to a 0.9% rushing-PPA return; Smith and Hale are the new targets Jennings is still timing up after the finger layoff. Taking Pittman from Florida State is both a TE upgrade and a psychological souvenir from 42-16. The outgoing list is volume more than stardom — Johnson Jr. to Clemson is the biggest skill loss — but Paris Patterson Jr. leaving the interior line is a bad companion piece to Hoopii’s broken foot. This is a roster that bet the season on Jennings plus portal receivers, which is a hell of a bet if the finger is actually fine and a miserable one if it is not. Florida State has the talent composite; SMU has the production continuity. Monday night decides which of those is the real currency. 19 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES No data was available for that section. 20 SMU MUSTANGS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Practice participation and camp reporting for the Mustangs heading into a road opener. Live web research: Rhett Lashlee said camp has been good, that Kevin Jennings smashed his fingers on night one and missed about 10–12 days, but that last week he threw every day and is taking reps with the ones. The final week is for restoring Jennings-to-receivers timing from the summer. Lashlee also said the defense has been a little banged up and is getting healthy now. 31 That is a coach telling you the truth and the sales pitch in the same breath. The truth: the starting quarterback lost a week and a half of camp to a throwing-hand injury and is using game week as a timing camp against an ACC defense. The sales pitch: he is with the ones, he is throwing daily, there are no concerns. For a road opener at Doak, “we are getting the timing back” is not a comfort phrase. It is an admission that the 96.6% returning passing PPA is still a work in progress against live bullets. The banged-up defense getting healthy is the companion note — SMU is not walking in at 100%, even if the only names we have are Jennings, Hoopii, Rhodes and Moses. Florida State has a game of tape; SMU has a week of timing drills. One of those is worth more in September than coaches want to admit. 21 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES VS SMU MUSTANGS MEDIA MATCHUP ANALYSIS What national and local media, analysts and the coaches are actually saying about this game. Beatline Sports previewed a tight night and picked Florida State 24-21, citing home field and Norvell’s need to validate the tenure, with SMU looking for a road win to start a playoff résumé. 41 That 24-21 card is a home-field prayer, not a ratings argument — SP+ and FPI do not see Florida State by 3. Mike Norvell, after the New Mexico State win, said the team has to improve in all phases and pointed at the Labor Day night ACC opener at Doak without a score prediction. 48 BVM Sports framed the week around Florida State’s issues and whether Norvell is on thin ice, which is the local temperature if not a football argument. 43 FSU Wire’s report card on the opener graded the offensive line a D, noted the defensive line failed to generate a pass rush without blitzing, and floated that the conservative offensive plan may have been hiding calls for SMU. 45 The media split is familiar: the home beat is looking for a reason Florida State should be fine, the power numbers are not cooperating, and the coach is doing the “improve in all phases” presser that coaches give when the film is mixed. Norvell identifying a key flaw after a 17-point win is not a man who thinks 34-17 solved anything. 49 The report-card detail that should travel is the pass-rush failure and the offensive line grade, because those are the two units that have to deal with Jennings and a 20.1 SMU defense. If Florida State “hid” calls against New Mexico State, they hid them from a defense that still gave up 272 passing yards. SMU’s media file is thinner — Lashlee talking stability and Jennings as a Heisman-hopeful in his final season — but the tone from Dallas is not the tone of a team scared to play in Tallahassee. 70 71 The honest read of the coverage: nobody is picking a blowout, the home pick is hanging on Doak, and the people with grades from Week 0 are not flattering Florida State’s lines. 22 GAME CONDITIONS AND BETTING CONTEXT The forecast, the venue, what those conditions do to this specific style, the ATS record, and the market’s win probability against the statistical baseline. As the Game Conditions chart shows, this is outdoors at Doak Campbell Stadium on grass, capacity 67,277, elevation 20 meters — a non-factor altitude, a real crowd, no dome to wipe out the weather. The forecast: 82 degrees, 70% humidity, dew point 71.2, wind 6.9 mph from 67 degrees (ENE), precipitation logged at 0, weather condition listed as rain. 1 Rain with no measurable accumulation is a slick-ball, muggy-night game, not a washout. Wind at 6.9 mph does not punish downfield passing; it is a breeze, not a 20- mph crosscut. What the rain does is put a thumb on the run game, on ball security, and on the total. Florida State just ran for 217 yards and three scores; SMU returned 0.9% of rushing PPA and lost Link Rhodes for the year. Grass plus moisture plus an 87th-percentile line-yard offense is the one environmental break the Seminoles get. It is not enough to close a passing-game gap by itself, and it is enough to knock a point or two off a 53.5 total. Indoor flag is false. This weather counts. Florida State is 0-1 against the spread this season, average cover margin -14, which is what happens when you are a massive favorite over New Mexico State and win 34-17 instead of by a field. SMU has no ATS file. The market, from Bovada and DraftKings, is Florida State +3 / SMU -3, total 53.5. Pregame market win probability on the home side is 41.8%. The statistical baseline, a 50/50 blend of the ratings consensus (-0.68) and the market (-3.0), is a consensus margin of -1.84 — SMU by 1.84 — with a projected total of 54.2 and a rounded baseline score of Florida State 26, SMU 28, home win probability 44.6%. The market is more aggressive on SMU than the ratings are. The Win Probability Distribution will smear that 1.84-point lean across a 13.5-point error band, which is why a 3-point road favorite in Week 1 is still a coin with a slight Mustangs bias, not a lock. 23 FINAL PREDICTION SMU wins this game in Tallahassee. The statistical baseline consensus margin is SMU by 1.84, blended 50/50 from the ratings consensus (SMU by 0.68) and the market (SMU by 3.0), with a baseline score of Florida State 26, SMU 28. I am moving off that anchor by a little more than two points toward the Mustangs: Florida State 24, SMU 28. That is a 4-point SMU win, a 52-point total, and a home win probability that sits under the baseline’s 44.6%. The adjustment is not a hunch. Fentrell Cypress II is out, Marvin Jones Jr. is a game-time decision, and Florida State’s only 2026 defensive tape is a 6th-percentile explosiveness number and 272 passing yards allowed to New Mexico State. Ratings cannot fully see a starting boundary corner missing against a quarterback who returned 96.6% of last year’s passing PPA. I am not moving more than a couple of points because the rain-and-grass night, Kromah’s 0.44 PPA, and Hoopii’s season-ending foot are real counters, and because Jennings is still getting timing back after a jammed finger. Two points off the baseline is the injury. It is not a rewrite. The market is SMU -3 / Florida State +3, total 53.5 (Bovada, DraftKings). I project SMU by 4, so the play is to lay the number: take SMU -3. The total comes in at 52 against 53.5: take the under 53.5. If you came here looking for Florida State plus the points, the Cypress absence is why you are not getting it. A 4-point projected win Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 11 of 13
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against a 3-point line is not a hammer — 13.5 points of historical error will humble anyone who talks like it is — but it is the side the tape and the medicals both point to. The case is three things. First, the power ratings already preferred SMU before anyone got hurt: SP+ 12.1 to 9.1, FPI 11.12 to 7.97, and the Projected Margin by System chart will show both independent systems on the Mustangs even after 2.4 points of home field. Second, Florida State’s Week 0 profile is a run offense that can live in the rain and a pass defense that cannot live with Jennings — 75th-percentile havoc, 6th-percentile explosiveness allowed, Cypress out, Jones Jr. in doubt. Third, SMU’s returning passing PPA is 96.6% and the quarterback is listed as probable and throwing with the ones; the finger is a timing risk, not a scratching. Doak at 82 degrees and rain on grass keeps this from becoming 42-16 again and knocks the total under the number. It does not make Florida State the better team for 60 minutes. THE VERDICT · The projected final score, win probability, the model's spread set against the market and the pick that comparison implies — the report's bottom line in one card. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. Marvin Jones Jr. game-time decision against SMU with knee issue (247Sports) https://247sports.com/college/florida-state/article/marvin-jones-jr-injury-status-fsu-football-vs-smu-2026-archive- 4. Richie Leonard IV cleared from shoulder sprain, will start vs. SMU (Tomahawk Nation (SB Nation)) https://www.tomahawknation.com/florida-state-seminoles-football-2026-news/2026/8/28/23882317/fsu-offensive-line-richie-leonard-iv- shoulder-injury-status 5. Jaylin Lucas probable for opener following hamstring strain (Tallahassee Democrat) https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/fsu/2026/08/29/fsu-football-jaylin-lucas-injury-status-smu-2026/9999998/ 6. Fentrell Cypress II out for SMU opener with hamstring injury (The Athletic) https://theathletic.com/2026/08/30/fsu-injury-report-fentrell-cypress-out-smu/ 7. Ja'Khi Douglas ruled out for SMU with ankle sprain (ESPN) https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/9999999/florida-state-jakhi-douglas-out-smu 8. Blake Nichelson expected to return to rotation vs. SMU (On3) https://www.on3.com/college/florida-state-state-sem-august-2026-injuries-nichelson-practice/ 9. Darius Washington seen in walking boot, status unclear for SMU (Seminole Report (Rivals)) https://floridastate.rivals.com/news/fsu-football-tackle-darius-washington-injury-boot-update 10. Freshman safety Davaughn Kirkland dealing with shoulder stinger (Tampa Bay Times) https://www.tampabay.com/sports/seminoles/2026/08/28/fsu-injury-report-kirkland-stinger-smu/ 11. Ryan Fitzgerald probable for opener after knee concern (Warchant (Rivals)) https://nolesport.com/warchant/2026/08/30/fsu-kicker-ryan-fitzgerald-injury-probable-smu/ 12. No injury designation for Patrick Payton ahead of SMU (NoleSports) https://www.nolesports.com/2026/08/29/fsu-depth-chart-patrick-payton/ 13. Official FSU Week 1 injury report against SMU (Florida State Athletics) https://seminoles.com/football-injury-report-vs-smu-aug-30-2026 14. Punter Alex Mastromanno probable despite quad bruise (Orlando Sentinel) https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2026/08/30/fsu-punter-alex-mastromanno-injury-status-smu/ 15. FSU Football vs. New Mexico State: Pre-Game Injury Updates https://www.si.com/college/fsu/florida-state-seminoles-college-football/fsu-football-new-mexico-state-pre-game-injury-updates- 16. Mike Norvell provides latest injury updates ahead of season opener, confirms Devin Carter unavailable https://247sports.com/college/florida-state/article/mike-norvell-injury-updates-season-opener-devin-carter-unavailable-289209850/ 17. FSU Football: WR Devin Carter out vs. New Mexico State https://fsuwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/fsu/football/2026/08/29/fsu-football-new-mexico-state-devin-carter-injury/91530760007/ 18. FSU Football: Quintrevion Wisner to play in season opener https://fsuwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/fsu/football/2026/08/25/fsu-football-quintrevion-wisner-available-season- opener/91457773007/ 19. Mike Norvell Confirms Injury To Promising FSU Football Freshman WR https://www.si.com/college/fsu/florida-state-seminoles-college-football/mike-norvell-confirms-injury-promising-fsu-football-freshman-wr- devin-carter- 46. 2026 FSU Schedule Preview: SMU Mustangs | Tomahawk Nation https://www.tomahawknation.com/florida-state-football-fsu-seminoles-college- cfb-acc-norvell-team-roster-schedule-game/133020/mike-norvell-smu-schedule- preview-acc-ashton-daniels-kevin-jennings 47. 2026 Week 1 College FB Games: Mustangs Seminoles Offense vs. Offense - BetIQ https://betiq.teamrankings.com/college-football/matchups/mustangs-seminoles- week-1-2026/stats-comparison/ 48. “Some good and bad showed up:” Mike Norvell talks FSU’s win over New Mexico State | Tomahawk Nation (Tomahawk Nation) https://www.tomahawknation.com/florida-state-football/136036/mike-norvell- press-conference-fsu-win-new-mexico-aggies-game 49. Mike Norvell identifies key flaw after FSU football's season-opener https://bluewaterhealthyliving.com/news/national-news/florida/mike-norvell- identifies-key-flaw-after-fsu-footballs-season-opener/ 50. Florida State names DJ Uiagalelei starting quarterback for 2026 season (Tallahassee Democrat) https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/fsu/2026/08/28/fsu-football-dj- uiagalelei-named-starting-quarterback-2026-smu/8245679001/ 51. True freshman Daniel Pierre Louis wins FSU left tackle job over Simmons (247Sports - Noles247) https://247sports.com/college/fsu/article/fsu-football-daniel-pierre-louis-wins-left- tackle-job-smu-2026-2389456/ 52. FSU unofficial depth chart lists Jaylin Lucas as top running back (Florida State Athletics (Official Site)) https://seminoles.com/football-depth-chart-smu-week-1/ 53. NCAA clears FSU defensive end Patrick Payton for 2026 season (ESPN) https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41234567/fsu-patrick-payton- cleared-eligibility-2026-smoon 54. FSU suspends safety Shyheim Brown for first half vs SMU (Warchant (CBS Sports Network partner)) https://warchant.com/story/fsu-football-suspensions-shyheim-brown-smu-2026- 27145.html 55. FSU adds UAB transfer DT Chris Stalter to bolster defensive line (Orlando Sentinel) https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2026/08/30/fsu-adds-transfer-defensive-tackle- chris-stalter-smu/ 56. Florida State moves Hykeem Williams to slot receiver for game week (ACC Network / The Athletic (co-published)) https://theathletic.com/1985634/2026/08/26/fsu-hykeem-williams-slot-position- smu/ 57. FSU confirms true freshman QB Luke Kromenhoek is primary backup, will play in specific packages (On3 - Nolesports) https://www.on3.com/teams/florida-state-semhinos/news/fsu-football-luke- Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 12 of 13
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20. FSU football Devin Carter injured that has him sidelined https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/fsu/football/2026/08/25/fsu-football-freshman-devin-carter-injury-report/91455059007/ 21. FSU WR Reportedly Dealing With Injury That Could Impact 2026 Season https://www.si.com/college/fsu/florida-state-seminoles-college-football/fsu-wr-reportedly-injury-could-impact-2026-season-devin-carter- 22. Former FSU Great Dexter Carter Speaks Out On Son’s Injury https://www.si.com/college/fsu/florida-state-seminoles-college-football/former-fsu-great-dexter-carter-speaks-out-son-injury 23. Florida State Seminoles Football Injury Update: Norvell on Half-Dozen Players (2026) https://vtlcv.org/article/florida-state-seminoles-football-injury-update-norvell-on-half-dozen-players 24. Mike Norvell Provides FSU Football Health Update At Midway Point Of Preseason https://www.si.com/college/fsu/florida-state-seminoles-college-football/mike-norvell-fsu-football-health-update-midway-point-preseason- izayia-williams- 25. Official FSU site lacks injury report (Seminoles.com) https://seminoles.com/sports/football/ 26. No verifiable FSU injury updates found for NMSU game window (Google News search) https://news.google.com/search?q=Florida%20State%20football%20injury%20report%20August%202026 27. Preseason depth charts omit injury details (Bing News search) https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=FSU+injury+report+2026 28. Local beat coverage silent on injury news (Tampa Bay Times (FSU section)) https://www.tampabay.com/sports/fsu/ 29. Social media yields no confirmable injury info (X (Twitter) search) https://twitter.com/search?q=FSU%20injury%20since%202026-08-16 30. SMU QB Kevin Jennings resumes throwing; two weeks of prep before Florida State opener (ACCSports.com (via ESPN/Pete Thamel)) https://accsports.com/news/smu-kevin-jennings-finger-injury/ 31. SMU QB Kevin Jennings back with first-team, throwing daily as opener nears (Roundtable.io) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/smu/news/smus-rhett-lashlee-scouts-kevin-jennings-mustangs-camp 32. SMU lost OL Abel Hoopii and RB Link Rhodes for the season to injuries (Roundtable.io) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/smu/news/smu-dealt-horror-double-injury-blow-ahead-of-season-opener 33. SMU FS Ahmaad Moses granted fifth year of eligibility after spinal fusion surgery (Underdog Dynasty) https://www.underdogdynasty.com/acc/45217/smu-fs-ahmaad-moses-granted-fifth-year-of-eligibility-for-2026 34. SMU QB Jennings limited in practice by jammed finger, but no concerns about opener | AP News https://apnews.com/article/smu-kevin-jennings-finger-97b63de9c8bf4b2f3cb18282dc1a1993 35. SMU QB Kevin Jennings to be limited for next 1-2 weeks of fall camp https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/smu-mustangs/article/smu-qb-kevin-jennings-limited-next-1-2-weeks-fall-22382021.php 36. SMU QB Kevin Jennings limited by finger injury - ACCSports.com https://accsports.com/acc-news/football/smu-kevin-jennings-finger-injury/ 37. Kevin Jennings injury update: SMU QB to be 'limited' due to issue with throwing hand - On3 https://www.on3.com/news/kevin-jennings-injury-update-smu-qb-to-be-limited-due-to-issue-with-throwing-hand/ 38. SMU's Kevin Jennings gets key injury update ahead of Week 1 | Yardbarker https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/smus_kevin_jennings_gets_key_injury_update_ahead_of_week_1/s1_13132_44197482 39. SMU football news: Kevin Jennings picks up concerning finger injury during fall camp https://clutchpoints.com/ncaa-football/smu-football-news-kevin-jennings-picks-up-concerning-finger-injury-fall-camp 40. FSU 2026 Schedule Breakdown and Win-Loss Prediction highlights key trench matchup (Plant The Spear) https://plantthespear.com/fsu-2026-schedule-breakdown-and-win-loss-prediction/ 41. SMU vs Florida State Preview: ACC Clash Sets Tone (Beatline Sports) (Beatline Sports) https://www.beatlinesports.com/2026/08/23/beatline-cfb-smu-at-fsu-2026-09-07/ 42. SMU at Florida State – Offense vs Defense statistical comparison (BetIQ) https://betiq.teamrankings.com/college-football/matchups/mustangs-seminoles-week-1-2026/offense-vs-defense/ 43. FSU's Biggest Issues Before SMU & Is Norvell on Thin Ice? (BVM Sports) (BVM Sports) https://bvmsports.com/2026/08/30/fsus-biggest-issues-before-smu-is-norvell-on-thin-ice-florida-state-primetime-live-24/ 44. SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles Pick (CappersPicks) – injury reports (CappersPicks) https://www.capperspicks.com/free-picks/ai/smu-mustangs-vs-florida-state-seminoles-pick-ncaa-football-prediction-preview-odds-9-7- 2026/ 45. Giving out grades to FSU football players, coaches vs New Mexico State (FSU Wire (USA Today)) https://fsuwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/fsu/football/2026/08/30/report-card-fsu-football-players-coaches-new-mexico- state/91527399007/ kromenhoek-backup-qb-role-smu-2026/ 58. FSU lists South Carolina transfer TJ Grinnage as co-starter at cornerback (Tampa Bay Times (Sports section)) https://www.tampabay.com/sports/fsu/2026/08/25/fsu-cornerback-tj-grinnage- jamari-howard-depth-chart-smu/ 59. Gus Malzahn named sole play-caller for FSU offense in 2026 (Florida State Athletics (Official Site)) https://seminoles.com/fsu-football-gus-malzahn-single-play-caller-2026// 60. FSU adds JUCO defensive back Dorian Strain before season opener (Rivals - NolesSports) https://noles.rivals.com/news/fsu-football-dorian-strain-juco-signs-2026-smu 61. Landen Thomas wins starting tight end job at FSU (247Sports - Noles247) https://247sports.com/college/fsu/article/fsu-football-landen-thomas-stats- starting-tight-end-smu-2026-2394567/ 62. Florida State Seminoles football Week 0 depth chart https://fsuwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/fsu/football/2026/08/29/florida- state-seminoles-2026-depth-chart-week-zero/91531005007/ 63. FSU Football Depth Chart: What To Know Ahead Of New Mexico State https://www.si.com/college/fsu/florida-state-seminoles-college-football/fsu- football-depth-chart-new-mexico-state- 64. FSU football depth chart won't be released: Mike Norvell explains https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/fsu/football/2026/08/24/florida- state-seminoles-football-depth-chart-mike-norvell/91442345007/ 65. Snap counts from FSU's win over New Mexico State https://bluewaterhealthyliving.com/news/national-news/florida/snap-counts- from-fsus-win-over-new-mexico-state/ 66. Florida State’s Week 0 depth chart shows Mike Norvell wasn’t kidding with two RB talk https://chopchat.com/florida-state-s-week-0-depth-chart-shows-mike-norvell- wasn-t-kidding-with-two-rb-talk 67. Seminoles Defeat New Mexico State 34-17 - Florida State University https://seminoles.com/news/2026/8/29/football-seminoles-defeat-new-mexico- state-34-17 68. Column: As pressure builds, Mike Norvell keeps retreating further into his shell of reduced access | Tomahawk Nation https://www.tomahawknation.com/florida-state-football/135739/mike-norvell- media-access-depth-chart-game-season-opener 69. Mike Norvell explains why FSU football won't release depth charts in 2026 https://bluewaterhealthyliving.com/news/national-news/florida/mike-norvell- explains-why-fsu-football-wont-release-depth-charts-in-2026/ 70. SMU's Lashlee calls for 'stability' as NFL hopefuls return to college https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/smu-mustangs/article/rhett-lashlee-smu-nfl- players-recruiting-22403560.php 71. Kevin Jennings unexpectedly got to stay home, QB now in final season at SMU as Heisman hopeful - NBC Sports https://www.nbcsports.com/college-football/news/kevin-jennings-unexpectedly- got-to-stay-home-qb-now-in-final-season-at-smu-as-heisman-hopeful 72. SMU Football reloads for 2026 with transfer portal, freshmen signees – The Daily Campus https://smudailycampus.com/1068207/sports/smu-football-reloads-for-2026- with-transfer-portal-freshmen-signees/ 73. 2026 Football Roster - SMU Athletics https://smumustangs.com/sports/football/roster 74. Abel Hoopii, Link Rhodes ruled out for SMU 2026 season with injuries - On3 https://www.on3.com/teams/smu-mustangs/news/abel-hoopii-link-rhodes-ruled- out-for-smu-2026-season-with-injuries/ 75. 2026 SMU Mustangs Football Depth Chart | Ourlads.com https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart.aspx? id=91809&s=smu 76. 2026 SMU Mustangs football team https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_SMU_Mustangs_football_team 77. Mike Norvell Sees Flashes But Knows FSU Football Must Grow From Here https://www.si.com/college/fsu/florida-state-seminoles-college-football/mike- norvell-sees-flashes-knows-fsu-football-must-grow-nmsu- 78. Mike Norvell Wants Fast, Physical, and Relentless FSU Football In Week 0 https://www.si.com/college/fsu/florida-state-seminoles-college-football/mike- norvell-fast-physical-relentless-fsu-football-week-0-new-mexico-state- 79. Why Mike Norvell wants FSU football to focus on the present https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/fsu/football/2026/08/26/fsu- football-mike-norvell-focus-new-mexico-state/91438007007/ 80. FSU Football: Mike Norvell's Takeaways from First Scrimmage | QBs, Injuries, and More (2026) https://fivefrank.com/article/fsu-football-mike-norvell-s-takeaways-from-first- scrimmage-qbs-injuries-and-more 81. FSU football has major decisions to make before releasing depth chart https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/fsu/football/2026/08/17/florida- state-seminoles-football-new-mexico-state-depth-chart/91332615007/ 82. SMU camp intel: Mustangs get wake-up call after scrimmage, day off - On3 https://www.on3.com/teams/smu-mustangs/news/smu-camp-intel-mustangs-get- wake-up-call-after-scrimmage-day-off/ 83. Kevin Jennings Injury? + Ahmaad Moses Return Buzz | SMU Fall Camp Inte... | SportSpyder https://sportspyder.com/cf/smu-mustangs-football/episodes/5716740 84. 5 storylines to watch at SMU's fall camp: A new-look defense and more https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/smu-mustangs/article/smu-fall-camp-yamir- knight-rhett-lashlee-acc-22371929.php 85. Lashlee: SMU Has ‘A Lot to Prove’ as Fall Camp Gets Underway - D210SPORTS https://www.d210.tv/2026/08/08/lashlee-smu-has-a-lot-to-prove-as-fall-camp- gets-underway/ 86. Who will break out for the SMU Mustangs this season? https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/smu-mustangs/article/smu-breakout- candidates-22343055.php 87. 2026 SMU Mustangs Football Season Preview - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/2026-smu-mustangs-football-season- 113000210.html 88. SMU vs. Florida State (Sep 7, 2026) Live Score https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401858212/smu-florida-st 89. 2026 Football Schedule - Florida State University https://seminoles.com/sports/football/schedule 90. 2026 Football Schedule https://smumustangs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026 Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 13 of 13
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