Louisville vs SMU
Game played Sep 19, 2026 · Published September 19, 2026 at 10:50 AM · 17 pages
Projected score, total and win probability for Louisville vs SMU, priced against the betting line — with injuries, form and the key statistical mismatches.
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A F P L N A C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L M A T C H U P R E P O R T V S Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D S E P T E M B E R 1 9 , 2 0 2 6 1 0 : 3 6 A M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Matchup Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 SP Ratings 04 ELO Ratings 05 FPI Ratings 06 SRS Ratings 07 Advanced Team Stats 08 Returning Production 09 Team Talent 10 Team PPA 11 Player PPA 12 Team Season Stats 13 Adjusted Team Metrics 14 Louisville Cardinals Injury Updates 15 SMU Mustangs Injury Updates 16 Key Player Matchups 17 Louisville Cardinals Roster Updates 18 SMU Mustangs Roster Updates 19 Louisville Cardinals Practice and Scrimmage Updates 20 SMU Mustangs Practice and Scrimmage Updates 21 Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs Media Matchup Analysis 22 Game Conditions and Betting Context 23 Final Prediction
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01 MATCHUP OVERVIEW This section sets the stage for the first ACC game of the season for both teams: No. 23 Louisville hosts No. 16 SMU at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, with the series history, stakes and broadcast context laid out before the numbers take over. The all-time series is not a series so much as a mugging: SMU leads 4-0, and the Mustangs have won all four meetings by an average of 21 points [game_context]. The two modern meetings are the ones that matter — a 34-27 SMU win at this exact stadium in 2024 and a 38-6 dismantling in Dallas last November [game_context]. Louisville has never beaten this program, and Jeff Brohm has acknowledged it plainly: "We have not beat them since we've played them" 31. Saturday's game is the ACC opener for both, and the stakes are outsized early — SMU arrives 2-0 with a road win at Florida State already banked, while Louisville is 1-1 after a four-point loss to Ole Miss and a 59-13 reset against Villanova [season_results]. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, with Roy Philpott, Brock Osweiler and Sherree Burruss on the call 10. The setup is unusually mirror-like. Rhett Lashlee's uptempo, quarterback-driven spread is the same offensive family Brohm runs, and both coaches have acknowledged the stylistic kinship 31. This is also a matchup of two rebuilt rosters — Louisville went heavy into the transfer portal after losing a chunk of its production, while SMU returned almost its entire passing attack. What makes the game compelling is the asymmetry underneath the similar records: SMU has the best unit on the field (its defense) and the most dangerous one (its passing game), while Louisville has the worst unit on the field (its defense) and a quarterback in Lincoln Kienholz playing at an elite level despite it. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like- for-like from one game to the next. GAME CONDITIONS · The forecast and the ground it will be played on: temperature, wind and precipitation beside the stadium's surface, roof, capacity and elevation. Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 2 of 17
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POWER RATING DASHBOARD · SP+, FPI and Elo side by side. SP+ and FPI are points-above-average ratings; the SP+ defensive rating counts down, so a lower bar is the better defense. Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 3 of 17
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EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always the better number regardless of which way the raw stat runs. Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 4 of 17
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MISMATCH MATRIX · Each offense measured directly against the defense it will face. Bars show the percentile gap; the longer the bar, the wider that specific unit-vs-unit edge. SEASON FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added. This is where you see a team trending up or falling apart, which season averages hide. Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 5 of 17
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TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA. Cross-reference this against the injury and roster sections. ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT · How much production each team returned from last season, alongside the recruiting talent composite. Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 6 of 17
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PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM · What each rating system independently projects, plus the market line and the blended consensus used as the model's anchor. WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · The consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. The shaded area on each side is that team's win probability. 03 SP RATINGS SP+ measures a team's expected scoring advantage over an average FBS opponent, with the defense component counting down — a lower defensive rating is the better defense. The overall rating is what matters most. TEAM SP+ OVERALL OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TEAMS Louisville 14.1 33.3 19.4 0.2 SMU 15.3 34.3 18.6 -0.4 FBS Average 0.8 26.4 25.6 0.0 The Power Rating Dashboard shows two teams separated by a blade of grass. SMU's overall edge is 1.2 points, almost entirely Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 7 of 17
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explained by offense (34.3 vs 33.3) and a marginally stingier defense (18.6 vs 19.4) 1. Both offenses are elite by SP+ standards — roughly eight points per game better than an average offense — and both defenses are comfortably above average as well. The special teams gap is the quiet detail: Louisville rates 0.2 vs SMU's -0.4, a small but real edge in a game this tight 1. The SP+ read aligns with the market's coin-flip framing. The ratings say this is essentially a one-point game on a neutral field, which means home field — worth 2.4 points in the baseline model [statistical_baseline] — should make Louisville the nominal favorite. The interesting part is that both defenses are rated better than the raw early-season numbers might suggest; the matchup's real test is whether SMU's defense, not its offense, is the unit that dictates the game. 04 ELO RATINGS Elo is a head-to-head power rating that updates based on results and margins; the gap between two teams' scores converts roughly to expected points, with 25 Elo points worth about one point on the scoreboard. Louisville sits at 1668 and SMU at 1734 1. That 66-point gap translates to roughly 2.6 points of SMU superiority on a neutral field — the largest single-system edge of the week for either team [statistical_baseline]. Apply Louisville's home-field advantage and the Elo margin nearly vanishes, leaving SMU ahead by about a quarter point before kickoff [statistical_baseline]. Elo is the only one of the four ratings that drags this game toward the visitor; SP+ and FPI both have Louisville marginally ahead once home field is added. That Elo lean is a function of what each team has actually done, not what they're projected to do. SMU beat Florida State on the road in Week 1 and has won its last four against Louisville specifically [game_context]. Elo has memory, and the Mustangs' recent history in this series — plus a road win in Tallahassee — is exactly the kind of result that moves the needle. The practical implication is that the ratings consensus is a wash, which makes everything else — injuries, matchups, conditions — the actual tiebreaker. 05 FPI RATINGS FPI is a points-above-average efficiency measure, expressing how many points each team would beat an average opponent by. The efficiency sub-scores are indexed so higher is better. TEAM FPI OVERALL EFF. OFFENSE EFF. DEFENSE EFF. ST EFF. Louisville 11.9 79.3 88.0 51.5 68.9 SMU 13.8 88.2 91.9 81.7 32.4 FPI sees SMU as the better team by 1.8 points, and the efficiency breakdown is more damning for Louisville than the topline suggests 1. The defensive efficiency gap is enormous — SMU checks in at 81.7 to Louisville's 51.5 — and that aligns with every advanced metric in this report. SMU's defense has been genuinely dominant in two games; Louisville's has been a liability. The offset is special teams, where Louisville holds a 68.9-to-32.4 edge, and FPI's resume ranks reflect the schedule divergence: SMU's strength of record is 4th nationally after the Florida State win, while Louisville's is 74th after a close loss to Ole Miss and a blowout of an FCS opponent 1. The FPI picture is the clearest statement of the game's central tension. Louisville's path to victory runs through its offense and special teams, because its defense grades as a below-average unit by FPI's efficiency metric. SMU's path is simpler — its defense travels, and its offense has been better than anyone Louisville has faced this year. The projected margin by system chart shows FPI joining Elo on the SMU side of the ledger, which is why this game is priced as a near pick'em despite the home team's brand name. 06 SRS RATINGS No SRS data was available for either team in this data set, so there is no fourth independent power number to compare against SP+, Elo and FPI for this matchup. 07 ADVANCED TEAM STATS These are the underlying efficiency numbers — success rate, explosiveness, PPA per play, line yards, havoc and points per scoring opportunity — each converted to a national percentile so a higher number is always better, regardless of whether the raw stat runs hot or cold. METRIC LOUISVILLE (PCT) SMU (PCT) Off. PPA/play 92.0 93.5 Off S R t 89 9 92 8 Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 8 of 17
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Off. Success Rate 89.9 92.8 Off. Explosiveness 74.6 85.5 Off. Line Yards 47.1 37.0 Off. Pts/Opportunity 87.7 42.8 Def. PPA/play 24.6 71.7 Def. Success Rate 55.1 77.5 Def. Explosiveness 44.2 32.6 Def. Line Yards 63.8 34.1 Def. Havoc 34.8 66.7 The Efficiency Profile makes the imbalance obvious. Both offenses are top-10 percentile units nationally — Louisville at 92nd percentile in PPA per play, SMU at 93.5 — and both stretch the field. SMU is the more explosive of the two (85.5 vs 74.6 percentile) and the more consistent, with a 92.8-percentile success rate. Louisville's scoring efficiency is spectacular — 5.36 points per scoring opportunity, 87.7 percentile — against an FCS opponent and an Ole Miss team that let the game get away from them late 1. SMU, by contrast, is converting opportunities at just the 42.8 percentile despite racking up yards, which is the one crack in their statistical armor. The defensive side is where the game is decided. SMU's defense is allowing a negative PPA per play (-0.085), good for the 71.7 percentile, with havoc at the 66.7 percentile and opponent success rate at the 77.5 percentile 1. Louisville's defense is allowing 0.123 PPA per play — the 24.6 percentile — and generating havoc at the 34.8 percentile. The Mismatch Matrix shows SMU's offense against Louisville's defense as the single largest unit-vs-unit gap in the game: an elite passing attack against a defense that has forced three turnovers but otherwise bled yards 1. Louisville's defense stops the run well (63.8 percentile line yards) and the passing downs are a disaster — opponents convert at will on third-and-long, and SMU is precisely the team that punishes that. 08 RETURNING PRODUCTION Returning production measures the share of last season's statistical output (weighted PPA) that each roster brought back, with usage weighting for how much of the offense ran through those players. Louisville returned just 34.8% of its total PPA and 26.8% of usage — one of the most aggressive roster overhauls in the ACC, driven by the transfer portal 1. The running game came back almost whole (84.6% of rushing PPA), but the passing game was rebuilt around a new quarterback and an almost entirely new receiver corps (18.2% of receiving PPA) 1. SMU is the opposite: 56.9% of total PPA returned and 57.8% of usage, anchored by a remarkable 96.6% of passing PPA coming back — Kevin Jennings and the entire passing operation survived the offseason intact 1. The Roster Continuity & Talent chart tells the story of two different program-building philosophies. Louisville ripped the bandage off and started over at quarterback, receiver and along the offensive line, and the early returns are genuinely encouraging — Kienholz has been excellent. But continuity matters in September, and SMU has it exactly where it matters: at quarterback, in the passing game, and across a defense that already knows the scheme cold. That 96.6% passing-PPA return is the statistical backbone of everything SMU does well, and it's the main reason the advanced metrics trust the Mustangs as much as they do. 09 TEAM TALENT The 247 Sports composite team talent score measures the recruiting base of the roster, weighting every scholarship player by his high school recruiting rating. SMU holds the talent edge at 764.5 to Louisville's 739.97 1. That is a modest gap in national terms — roughly 25 composite points, the kind of margin between adjacent tiers of the ACC — but the direction is notable: the team that has dominated this series on the field also has the better raw roster on paper 1[game_context]. Louisville's portal haul closed some of the gap, particularly at the skill positions where Tre Richardson (0.93 rating) and Lawayne McCoy (0.92) arrived as four-star transfers 1. Talent does not predict this game so much as it sets the floor. Two rosters this close in composite talent should produce a close game, which is exactly what the betting market and every power rating expect. Where the talent gap could manifest is in the trenches — SMU's defensive front has been the most disruptive unit on either side (14 tackles for loss and five sacks in two games), and Louisville's offensive line is still finding itself after a five-transfer rebuild 81. Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 9 of 17
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10 TEAM PPA Team PPA is predicted points added per play, shown here week by week — the trend line that reveals whether a team is improving or regressing beneath its season averages. WEEK LOUISVILLE OFF. LOUISVILLE DEF. SMU OFF. SMU DEF. 1 0.28 0.23 0.36 0.14 2 0.63 -0.01 0.58 -0.32 Both teams improved dramatically from Week 1 to Week 2, but the trajectories carry different meanings 1. Louisville's offense exploded against Villanova (0.63 PPA, 1.02 passing PPA) and its defense finally produced a negative game (¬-0.01) — though the opponent was an FCS team that shouldn't count as evidence of a fix 1. SMU's defense did the real work: after allowing 0.14 PPA per play at Florida State, they held UC Davis to -0.32, the kind of suffocating number that defensive stats rarely produce 1. The Season Form Trend chart shows the sharper SMU defensive improvement as the deciding slope. Louisville's defense went from gashed by Ole Miss to quiet against Villanova; SMU's defense went from solid on the road against an ACC program to dominant at home against an overmatched one. Neither Week 2 performance should be weighted heavily — Louisville played an FCS team, SMU played one too — but the direction of travel matters. SMU's defense has been elite for two consecutive weeks. Louisville's defense has been elite for one week against inferior competition. 11 PLAYER PPA Player PPA ranks the individuals driving each offense by total predicted points added — the chart on which the injury and roster news should be cross-referenced. PLAYER (TEAM) POS AVG PPA TOTAL PPA Kevin Jennings (SMU) QB 0.914 53.0 Lincoln Kienholz (LOU) QB 0.718 50.9 Tre Richardson (LOU) WR 1.066 16.0 Randy Pittman Jr. (SMU) TE 1.959 11.8 Lawayne McCoy (LOU) WR 1.351 10.8 Marquise Davis (LOU) RB 1.044 7.3 Isaac Brown (LOU) RB -0.235 -7.3 The Top Individual Impact chart has a hero and a villain for Louisville. Kienholz has been phenomenal — 50.9 total PPA, 0.718 per play, with his legs (13.2 rushing PPA) nearly as valuable as his arm (37.8 passing) 1. Richardson (1.066 PPA) and McCoy (1.351) are legitimate No. 1 and No. 2 receivers. But Isaac Brown, the preseason All-America back with 8.8 yards per carry last season, is in negative PPA territory: -7.3 total, with -8.3 of that on the ground 1. He is averaging 3.3 yards per carry with no touchdowns through two games, and teammate Jaleel Skinner has essentially said what everyone can see: Brown needs to "let the game come to him" 26. SMU's list is quarterback-tight-end dominant. Jennings (53.0 total PPA) is the engine, and Pittman Jr. — a 6'2", 240-pound Florida State transfer — is a 1.959 PPA-per-play monster who SMU moves all over the formation, including as a wildcat quarterback 111. The supporting cast is deep: Yamir Knight as the security blanket, Yannick Smith as the deep threat, Jalen Cooper as the explosive reserve. The contrast that matters: SMU's top skill players are thriving on schedule, while Louisville's highest-profile offensive player is currently a drag on his own offense. 12 TEAM SEASON STATS These are the raw counting stats through two games — volume numbers that confirm or contradict what the advanced metrics say. STAT LOUISVILLE SMU Total yards 1,104 1,132 Passing yards 682 884 Rushing yards 422 248 Points per game 48.5 41.5 Points allowed 27.0 17.0 Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 10 of 17
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Sacks (for/against) 1 / 3 5 / 1 TFL (for/against) 6 / 10 14 / 10 Turnover margin +3 +1 Penalty yards 172 102 The raw stats agree with the advanced numbers on the central themes: SMU is a passing team that lives and dies through the air (884 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns against 248 rushing yards and one touchdown), and its defense is generating far more negative plays (14 TFL, five sacks) than Louisville's 1. The one place the raw stats disagree with the advanced metrics is in the backfield. Louisville's running game looks respectable on paper — 422 yards and seven touchdowns on 77 carries — but the production is spread across a committee that includes Keyjuan Brown, Marquise Davis and Braxton Jennings, not the star back Saint Brown expected to carry the load 126. Louisville's discipline and turnover numbers are quietly alarming. The Cardinals have committed 16 penalties for 172 yards in two games, including nine for a 82-yard day against Ole Miss, and Brohm admitted the problem has become a fixation in practice 39. They have not committed a turnover, but they have also forced just three — a decent margin that has masked how badly the defense has been outgained when it isn't creating turnovers. SMU's defense, by contrast, is winning without fluky plays: 14 TFLs, 10 pass breakups and a secondary holding opponents to 296 net passing yards per game 1. 13 ADJUSTED TEAM METRICS No opponent-adjusted efficiency data was available for this section, so there is no additional adjustment layer to apply beyond the SP+, Elo, FPI and advanced stats already covered. 14 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS INJURY UPDATES This section covers the medical status of Louisville's roster for Saturday, presented as two separate inputs: the live web research from the last 48 hours, and the stored injury feed from the last 14 days. The headline is that the Cardinals' running back corps and starting tackles are all expected to be available. Live web research: Keyjuan Brown, RB — Expected available: Not listed on the first ACC availability report after exiting the Villanova win with a potential concussion; Brohm said he anticipated Brown playing 3. This restores Louisville's multi-back rotation alongside Isaac Brown 3. Anwar O'Neal, LT — Probable: Listed probable for his first appearance of the season; his return could move Lance Robinson to center and stabilize the offensive line 38. Isaac Brown, RB — Probable: Took a hard hit against Villanova but is expected to play 4. Cason Henry, RT — Probable: After missing Villanova, Henry is listed probable, which could give Louisville both starting tackles on the field for the first time this season 4. Demeco Kennedy, DL — Questionable, expected out: Hurt his arm against Ole Miss; Brohm said Kennedy "probably will not be able to go" 4. That removes a starter from a defensive line that was rebuilt entirely this offseason 4. Eight players out: OL Max Merz, Bryten Close, Sam Secrest and Cameron Gorin, TE Travis Egan, P Jacob Barker, WR Payton Payton Cook and DL Sam Dawson — mostly reserve depth 4. Montavin Quisenberry, WR — Out: Third-party listings have him out with a lower-body injury; treat as a no 4. Kalib Perry, LB — Eligible/expected debut: Cleared by a court ruling Monday and expected to make his debut after missing the first two games; he was fifth on the team in tackles last season 5. Injury feed: The stored feed's current availability list matches the live research on the key names: Keyjuan Brown available 6, Anwar O'Neal probable 6, Isaac Brown probable 4, Demeco Kennedy questionable/expected out 4, Cason Henry probable 4, P. Cook out 6, M. Quisenberry out 7, K. Hughes out for season 7, and Kalib Perry eligible 5. The feed also carries older items that predate this game's report: the Sept. 16 ACC availability report for the Pitt game listed six Cardinals out (including Stanquan Clark, Rodney Johnson and Travis Egan) and five questionable (including Isaac Brown and Duke Watson) 18, plus early-season items — Chris Bell probable 16, Marquise David questionable 14, Kahlil Hugh out for season 14, Montavian Quisenberry out 14, Awar O'Neal expected to miss 14 — and a note that no official availability report was published for the Villanova game 15. The practical effect is that Louisville's biggest offensive concerns — running back health and the tackle position — are resolved. The defense's biggest concern is not. Demeco Kennedy is the one starter lost to Saturday, and he is lost exactly where Louisville cannot afford to lose him: the defensive interior that was supposed to pressure the quarterback but has produced one sack through two games 41. The return of O'Neal and Henry matters, though. If the Cardinals' starting tackles both play for the first Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 11 of 17
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time, SMU's 14-TFL front seven of Malcolm Alcorn-Warner and the edge rushers lose their most favorable matchup of the season. 15 SMU MUSTANGS INJURY UPDATES This section covers the medical status of SMU's roster for Saturday, with the same two-source structure. The Mustangs will be missing their best safety and their top running back, but the passing game that defines this team is completely intact. Live web research: Ahmaad Moses, S — Out: Still not medically cleared after offseason spinal fusion surgery; he won the extra year in court but hasn't been cleared to play in it 8. His absence forces Jimmy Wyrick and Tyren Polley Jr. to handle safety against a Louisville passing attack that has been explosive 8. EJ Kelly, RB — Probable: Upgraded to probable on the ACC availability report, likely to play Saturday 19. Christian Rhodes, RB — Questionable: Listed questionable with an undisclosed injury 19. Link Rhodes, RB — Out for season: Torn ACL in August and won't play again this year 19. Abel Hoopii, OL — Out for season: Broke a foot in camp and is out for the year 20. Daylon Singleton, WR — Questionable (previous week): Singleton and safety Jaden Milliner-Jones carried the questionable designation for the Florida State game; their status for Louisville wasn't explicitly specified 21. Brandon Booker, LB / Jayvon Thomas, CB — Expected to play: Both are expected starters with no injury designation, meaning they're available 8. Injury feed: The stored feed's current availability list contains the same names: Ahmaad Moses out 8, M. Uter questionable at tight end 19, Link Rhodes out for season 19, EJ Kelly probable 19, Christian Rhodes questionable 19, Abel Hoopii out for season 20, and Brandon Booker/Jayvon Thomas expected to play 8. The feed also includes the RotoWire Week 2 report listing three players out (Hoopii, Link Rhodes, Christian Rhodes) and three questionable (EJ Kelly, M. Uter, Daylon Singleton) 25, and the final ACC availability report from the Florida State game, which listed nine players out — including Moses, Milliner-Jones, Caden Marshall, Deuce Gilbert, EJ Kelly, Christian Rhodes, Link Rhodes, Kenneth Goodwin III and Hoopii — with Singleton questionable 24. The lost pieces are real but survivable. Moses is the second-most important player on SMU's defense, and losing an All-ACC safety changes how the secondary can defend Louisville's deep shots — but Wyrick has two sacks and is playing the best football of his career, and the Mustangs have already navigated the Florida State game without most of these players 8. The running back room is gutted: Link Rhodes is done, Christian Rhodes is questionable, and the running game has been below replacement level all year (negative PPA, 37th percentile line yards) 1. That's a feature of this matchup, not a bug — SMU's 442 yards per game of passing is the entire identity and it is fully healthy. 16 KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS These are the individual battles that define the game, tied back to the PPA and advanced numbers where the data supports it. The most important one is actually structural: Kevin Jennings against Louisville's pass rush, or lack thereof. Louisville has one sack all season 1. Kevin Jennings has thrown for 767 yards on 77% completions with eight touchdowns and two interceptions, and he extends plays to throw downfield — which is exactly what Louisville's banged-up secondary cannot survive 8. Brohm said the key is to "create pressure, attack the quarterback, challenge routes, not give up big plays, defend the tempo" 26. Co- defensive coordinator Steve Ellis was blunter about the cost of a busted assignment against this offense: "Ten guys can do it perfectly, but one guy doesn't, then the defense is not going to be successful" 11. SMU TE Randy Pittman Jr. (1.959 PPA) vs Louisville LBs: Card Chronicle calls him the biggest single threat in SMU's passing game — he lines up everywhere, including wildcat, and can get lost in the structure of the defense 11. That is a brutal matchup for Louisville's linebacker corps, which was already missing Stanquan Clark and now has to account for a 240-pound tight end who plays the short and intermediate seams 118. Louisville LT Anwar O'Neal (probable) vs SMU's edge rush: O'Neal's probable return is the single biggest schematic change of the week — it shifts Lance Robinson to center and improves the interior run game 8. SMU's front has been disruptive with 14 TFLs and five sacks, so O'Neal's presence in his first game of the season is critical 8. SMU WR Yannick Smith (2.86 per-play ceiling) vs Louisville's rebuilt secondary: Smith has six catches for 151 yards and two touchdowns; Card Chronicle calls out his long speed and big-play ability against a Louisville defense that has struggled with blown coverages 118. Louisville RB Isaac Brown (-0.295 rushing PPA) vs SMU's front seven: Brown is averaging 3.3 yards per carry with no touchdowns; SMU's defense is built to stop the run with downhill safeties and wants to get its ends in the backfield 26. If Brown can't establish anything, SMU's safeties stay deep and Louisville's play-action game loses its teeth 26. Malcolm Alcorn-Warner, SMU DT, vs Louisville's interior OL: Card Chronicle notes Alcorn-Warner has 10 pressures Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 12 of 17
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through two games and is the centerpiece of the middle of SMU's defensive line 11. If the new interior — Johnnie Brown III, Eryx Daugherty and company — can't handle him, Kienholz's rhythm gets disrupted 11. The matchup data points in one direction: SMU has the two most important individual advantages in the game — its passing game against Louisville's defense, and its defensive front against Louisville's run game. Louisville's best individual advantage (Kienholz against SMU's rebuilt secondary) is the counterweight, but it rests on the shoulders of a quarterback who has been brilliant and a back who hasn't. 17 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster news for Louisville, led by the verified transfer-portal moves — which are the ground truth for who actually moved — followed by the researched news from this week. Transfer portal (verified, CFBD): The Cardinals' incoming class is massive: four-star WR Tre Richardson (Vanderbilt, 0.93 rating), four-star WR Lawayne McCoy (Florida State, 0.92), four-star TE Brody Foley (Tulsa, 0.92), three-star QB Lincoln Kienholz (Ohio State, 0.89), plus a wave of three-star depth at every position — Kaleb Beasley (Tennessee), DJ Waller Jr. (Kentucky), Demeco Kennedy (Purdue), Cason Henry (South Carolina), Anwar O'Neal (Delaware), Marquise Davis (Missouri) and roughly two dozen others 1. The outgoing list is equally enormous — 30 players total — with the notable entries being Jordan Church (Texas Tech), Duke Watson (UCF), Deuce Adams (Wisconsin) and a number of uncommitted names 1. One important flag in the portal data: Isaac Brown appears in the outgoing list dated Jan. 1, 2026, with no destination 1. He's on the roster, he's probable for Saturday, and he's the starting running back — the portal entry evidently never consummated, or was entered and withdrawn. Treat the other outgoing names as ground truth for the freshmen who left, and read the "destination: null" entries as players who entered the portal and found no permanent home 1. Researched news: Lincoln Kienholz confirmed as the starting quarterback: The official game notes list the Ohio State transfer as the starter; he has started both games, thrown for 300+ yards in each and accounted for seven touchdowns (four pass, three rush) 34. He ranks second nationally in total offense 8. Tre Richardson leads the receivers: The Vanderbilt transfer leads the team with 11 catches for 181 yards through two weeks 34. He has a 1.066 PPA per play 1. Paul Petrino returns as tight ends coach: His third stint at Louisville, taking over a rebuilt room that added Brody Foley and Justyn Reid 34. The offensive line was rebuilt with five portal transfers: Johnnie Brown III, Eryx Daugherty, Cason Henry, Anwar O'Neal and Evan Wibberley combined for 114 career games and 79 starts at their previous stops 34. The roster news reinforces the injury section: Louisville is essentially at full strength offensively for the first time all season. The five-transfer offensive line was supposed to be the backbone of the program, and in Week 3 they finally get their two starting tackles available simultaneously 4. Kienholz is confirmed as the starter 34, and the skill talent around him — Richardson, McCoy, Hurry, the tight ends — is credible enough to attack an SMU secondary missing its best safety 8. 18 SMU MUSTANGS ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster news for SMU, led by the verified transfer-portal moves, followed by researched items from this week. Transfer portal (verified, CFBD): The Mustangs' key incoming hauls are the ones that will actually play Saturday: four-star RB Kendrick Raphael (California), four- star WR Yannick Smith (East Carolina), four-star TE Theo Melin Ohrstrom (Texas A&M), three-star TE Randy Pittman Jr. (Florida State), plus a group of defensive transfers in CB Jayvon Thomas (Texas A&M), EDGE Marques White, LB Caden Marshall, EDGE Ira Singleton, CB Jarvis Lee, DL Christian Davis and others 1. Outgoing: the big ones are Chris Johnson Jr. (Clemson), Paris Patterson (Texas), Billy Walton III (Oklahoma State) and kicker Sam Keltner (Oklahoma State) 1. Researched news: Kendrick Raphael named the starting running back: The Cal transfer, who had 943 yards and 13 touchdowns at Cal last year, is manning the spot, with Dramecko Green and Derrick McFall rotating behind him 118. The receiver corps is built on transfers: Yamir Knight is the returning top target, flanked by the new speedsters Yannick Smith (ECU) and Jalen Cooper; Smith has six catches for 151 yards and two touchdowns 8. Wyrick and Polley are the safety rotation: The two lead SMU in tackles through two games, with Wyrick's two sacks from the safety spot the sort of pressure Louisville's protection has to account for 8. Nettles and Thomas are the starting corners: William Nettles returns as a starter, joined by Texas A&M transfer Jayvon Thomas, who has seven tackles and half a TFL 8. Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 13 of 17
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Aakil Washington is back from medical redshirt: Washington returned from last season's medical redshirt and was disruptive against Florida State with five tackles and 1.5 TFLs 8. The roster news says SMU is what we thought it was: a quarterback-driven outfit, rebuilt through the portal and returning the passing game almost in full 1. The running back spot that was supposed to be Chris Johnson Jr.'s is now Raphael's, but the identity hasn't changed — 884 passing yards is the most in the country through two weeks, and the ground game is a decoy. The additions of Pittman at tight end and Smith at receiver give the Mustangs four legitimate downfield targets, and Louisville's secondary has not exactly proven it can cover four receivers. 19 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Practice participation, scrimmage results and camp reporting from the week leading into SMU. The practice week's big development was the return of the starting offensive line. Louisville's first ACC availability report listed Anwar O'Neal as probable and did not list Keyjuan Brown in any capacity, which means the running back cleared concussion protocol; Brohm said earlier in the week he was hopeful and anticipated Brown playing 6. Brohm also said right tackle Cason Henry and defensive lineman Bailey Abercrombie were hopeful returns 39. Demeco Kennedy, the one defensive starter, was the notable subtraction: "probably will not be able to go" against SMU 39. The emphasis in practice, per the coaching quotes, was entirely on fixing a broken defense against the worst possible matchup. Louisville's co-defensive coordinator Steve Ellis said the Cardinals had to "completely overhaul" the way they communicated going into SMU's uptempo offense 40. Brohm's week was about manufacturing pressure — noting SMU leads the country in passing at 442 yards per game, and that Louisville has one sack and three TFLs against SMU's one sack allowed 26. He also talked about the heat: preparing for a potentially 95-degree kickoff with extra fans, a possible uniform change and hydration emphasis 39. The season's theme — 16 penalties for 172 yards — was walked through spent practice time: "We've tried a lot of things. We probably talked about it last week maybe too much. Maybe because we can't talk about it anymore" 39. 20 SMU MUSTANGS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Practice participation, scrimmage results and camp reporting from SMU's side of the week. The Mustangs' practice week was short on detail and long on messaging. The one concrete on-field development was the confirmation that All-ACC safety Ahmaad Moses, who has been waiting on medical clearance after offseason spinal fusion surgery, is out for Saturday — putting the pressure on Wyrick and Polley to lead the tackle chart 8. Lashlee's preparation comments framed the game as a big conference road test and a "challenge" — SMU won at Louisville two years ago and beat the Cardinals at home last year — while acknowledging Louisville is a team he believes is "as talented as anybody in the ACC" 3741. No scrimmage results or detailed practice participation logs were found within the week; the On3 fall-camp report of an injury bug forcing movement on the offensive line predates the seven-day window and was not included 42. The absence of detailed SMU practice reporting is telling in its own way. SMU is 2-0 with a road win at Florida State, its offense is the nation's No. 1 passing attack, and Kevin Jennings is the incumbent quarterback running the same system with 96.6% of the passing production returning 18. There was no quarterback controversy, no depth chart drama, no roster intrigue to report — the quietest possible preparation for the game expected to decide the ACC's September pecking order. 21 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS VS SMU MUSTANGS MEDIA MATCHUP ANALYSIS What the national and local media, analysts and coaches are saying about the game. The betting press is treating this as a coin flip with a home-team lean. NBC Sports framed Louisville -1.5 as one of the hardest games on the board — a live bet angle if either team gets above +6 at halftime, and a lean to the under in early season conference games despite the appeal of the over 13. CBS Sports picked Louisville -1.5, framing it as a must-win for Brohm after the Ole Miss loss, citing his "Big Game Brohm" record at home against Notre Dame, Clemson and Miami 44. Sharp Football Analysis also took the Cardinals -1.5, leaning on Kienholz's athleticism as the slight edge 45. The local media is more confident: Card Chronicle's game-day prediction is Louisville 37-27 11, while SI's Louisville site billed the game as an offensive clash with fireworks potential 33. The coaches' comments are the most useful media output of the week. Lashlee called Louisville as talented as anybody in the ACC and capable of winning the league and making a College Football Playoff run 41. Brohm, as quoted by Kentucky Today, zeroed in on the exact mismatch: SMU is No. 1 in passing offense at 442 yards per game, has allowed one sack — Louisville has one sack and three TFLs 26. The broadcast details are confirmed: ESPN2 with Roy Philpott, Brock Osweiler and Sherree Burruss 10. The underlying consensus across every outlet: two elite offenses, one vulnerable defense, and a series history that gives SMU the psychological edge until Louisville proves otherwise. Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 14 of 17
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22 GAME CONDITIONS AND BETTING CONTEXT The forecast, venue details, against-the-spread records and market context for Saturday's game at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. The forecast is hot and humid, with a light possibility of rain: 88.3°F, dew point 72.7, humidity 60%, and 0.043 inches of precipitation on a cloudy day, with a south wind at a negligible 5.8 mph [game_context]. The wind is a non-factor — under six miles per hour does not punish downfield passing. The heat is the real condition, and humid heat favors the team with the deeper conditioning and the quicker tempo; both teams want to go fast, so the forecast does not meaningfully suppress scoring [game_context]. The venue is the biggest open-air stadium in the state — 60,000 capacity on artificial turf at 139 meters of elevation, which is effectively sea level and a non-factor [game_context]. The venue is not a dome, so the forecast applies as written. Against the spread this season: Louisville is 2-0 ATS with an average cover margin of 5.5 points; SMU is 1-0-1 ATS with an average cover margin of 6.75 [game_context]. The market pregame projection has Louisville at 54.1% win probability on a spread of -1.5, which is essentially identical to the statistical baseline's 53.0% and a consensus margin of 1.0 point [game_context][statistical_baseline]. The projected total from the systems is 62.8, slightly above the market total of 58.5 [statistical_baseline]. The one structural edge the weather adds is that the defense — specifically Louisville's defense — has to hold up in the heat; if the game is tight into the fourth quarter, the team with the fresher legs and the more reliable offense has the edge. 23 FINAL PREDICTION SMU wins this game, and the final score will be SMU 34, Louisville 30. The baseline consensus — the blend of SP+, FPI, Elo and the market line — is a 1.0-point Louisville edge, projecting a 32-31 Cardinals win [statistical_baseline]. I am moving the game the other way, and by a meaningful margin: my adjustment lands at SMU by four. The case for the move rests on the single clearest mismatch of the season — SMU's offense against Louisville's defense is not a fair fight, and the ratings cannot a account for the fact that Louisville has one sack and three tackles for loss against a quarterback who has thrown for 767 yards and eight touchdowns against one sack 126. Demeco Kennedy is expected to be out for the Cardinals' front, which removes the one starter who was supposed to help fix that pass rush, while SMU's own defense has been the best unit on either roster (negative PPA allowed, 66.7-percentile havoc) 41. Louisville's anticipated returns — Keyjuan Brown, Anwar O'Neal, Cason Henry, Kalib Perry — matter, and the offensive line reconstruction may be real, but they do not close the gap created by Isaac Brown's negative PPA running game and a defense that grades at the 24th percentile against the nation's most explosive passing attack 1345. The market has Louisville -1.5 with a total of 58.5 [betting_market]. Take SMU +1.5 — my projected four-point SMU win means the Mustangs cover the number with room to spare, and the plus-money on the road underdog is the side of the value in a game the four ratings systems see as essentially level. Take the over 58.5 as well: the baseline projected total is 62.8, both offenses grade in the 92nd-plus percentile nationally, the forecast does not suppress the pass (wind negligible, rain light, heat actually favoring the uptempo teams), and the one defense that could keep this under — SMU's — does not have the depth to do it for four quarters against a 60,000-person road environment [statistical_baseline]1[game_context]. The decisive reasons, in order: (1) the defensive mismatch — SMU's defense is elite by every efficiency measure and Louisville's is a liability, the largest unit-vs-unit divide in this game; (2) the pass-rush chasm — Kevin Jennings should have clean pockets and time to throw against a Louisville front that cannot manufacture pressure, while SMU's defense makes life miserable for a struggling Isaac Brown and a rebuilt offensive line; and (3) the form trend — SMU's defense has improved steeply every week while Louisville's improvement came against an FCS opponent, and the team with the elite defense in a coin-flip game gets the check. Louisville has never beaten this program in four tries, and the rating systems, the injuries, the matchups and the conditions all point the same direction: the visitor covers and sends the home crowd home unhappy. Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 15 of 17
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THE VERDICT · The projected final score, win probability, the model's spread set against the market and the pick that comparison implies — the report's bottom line in one card. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. Keyjuan Brown not listed on Louisville's first injury report vs SMU (Card Chronicle) https://www.cardchronicle.com/football/104352/louisville-releases-first-injury-report- smu-game 4. Isaac Brown probable for Louisville vs SMU (Offshore Sportsbooks Blog via Blogarama) https://www.blogarama.com/gambling-and-games-blogs/1458778-offshore- sportsbooks-blog/80394295-smu-louisville-pick-prediction-mustangs-get-plus-money- top-acc-opener-priced-coin-flip 5. Kalib Perry cleared by court ruling; expected to make Louisville debut vs SMU (CBS Sports) https://www.cbssports.com/college- football/gametracker/playbyplay/NCAAF_20260919_SMU@LVILLE/ 6. Louisville releases first injury report for SMU game | Card Chronicle (Card Chronicle) https://www.cardchronicle.com/football/104352/louisville-releases-first-injury-report- for-smu-game 7. SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Game Overview, Stats, Injuries, Records - NCAAF Game on September 19, 2026 (Covers.com) https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/matchup/377942 8. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW (2026): Louisville v. SMU – Cardinal Sports Zone (Cardinal Sports Zone) https://cardinalsportszone.com/2026/09/17/everything-you-need-to-know-2026- louisville-v-smu/ 9. Louisville football fans just got the Keyjuan Brown injury update they wanted https://bigredlouie.com/louisville-football-fans-just-got-the-keyjuan-brown-injury- update-they-wanted- 10. No. 23 Cardinals Host No. 16 SMU in ACC Ranked Matchup - University of Louisville Athletic (University of Louisville Athletics) https://gocards.com/news/2026/9/18/football-no-23-cardinals-host-no-16-smu-in-acc- ranked-matchup 11. Game Day: Louisville vs. SMU | Card Chronicle (Card Chronicle) https://www.cardchronicle.com/football/104386/game-day-louisville-vs-smu 12. Football vs SMU on 9/19/2026 - Game Center - University of Louisville Athletic https://gocards.com/game-center/26200 13. SMU vs Louisville Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats - NBC Sports (NBC Sports) https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/college-football/news/smu-vs-louisville-prediction- odds-expert-picks-team-and-player-news-betting-trends-and-stats 24. Final ACC Availability Report – SMU at Florida State (ACCSports.com) https://accsports.com/news/final-injury-update-smu-florida-state/ 25. RotoWire Week 2 SMU Injury Report (RotoWire) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/article/college-football-injury-report-most- injured-teams-133624 26. Isaac Brown must bounce back against SMU's aggressive front seven (Kentucky Today) https://www.kentuckytoday.com/sports/scoreboard-could-get-a-workout-when- cards-mustangs-turn-loose-offenses/article_18400e3c-8136-4d9b-9c00- 9b773941184f.html 27. SMU vs. Louisville (Sep 19, 2026) | StatMuse https://www.statmuse.com/cfb/game/9-19-2026-smu-at-lou-125474 28. SMU offers challenge for troubled Louisville defense | College Sports | thenewsenterprise.com https://www.thenewsenterprise.com/sports/college_sports/smu-offers-challenge- for-troubled-louisville-defense/article_0a42d4c5-eba2-5629-9490- 1b0884c8b90e.html 29. Opponent Breakdown: SMU Mustangs Offense | Card Chronicle https://www.cardchronicle.com/football/104213/opponent-breakdown-smu- mustangs-offense 30. SMU at Louisville Matchup Preview | CFBTrack https://cfbtrack.com/games/matchup/2026/401858230 31. Jeff Brohm, UofL football look to conquer mirror in Rhett Lashlee, SMU (Courier- Journal) https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/columnists/c-l- brown/2026/09/15/jeff-brohm-louisville-football-mirror-rhett-lashlee- smu/91514360007/ 32. SMU vs. Louisville (Sep 19, 2026) Pregame - ESPN https://www.espn.com/college-football/preview/_/gameId/401858230 33. Bring Your Own Fireworks: Louisville and SMU Set for Offensive Clash (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/louisville/bring-your-own-fireworks-louisville-and-smu- set-for-offensive-clash-01m2raws9na6 34. Lincoln Kienholz confirmed as starting quarterback for SMU game (GoCards.com (University of Louisville Athletics)) https://gocards.com/documents/download/2026/9/15/Game_3_-_SMU.pdf 35. Friday afternoon Cardinal news and notes | Card Chronicle https://www.cardchronicle.com/cardinal-news-and-notes/104370/friday- afternoon-cardinal-news-and-notes-louisville-cardinals 36. SMU Football reloads for 2026 with transfer portal, freshmen signees – The Daily Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 16 of 17
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14. Isaac Brown expected to be full go vs Ole Miss, played 16 carries (ClutchPoints) https://clutchpoints.com/ncaa-football/louisville-football-news-is-isaac-brown-playing- season-opener-vs-ole-miss 15. No official Louisville availability report published for Villanova game (WDRB/Courier- Journal) https://www.wdrbwave.com/2026/09/09/kickoff-no-24-louisville-vs-villanova-how- watch-what-watch/ 16. Chris Bell limited in Bowling Green game but expected for Pitt (SI) https://www.si.com/college/louisville/football/brohm-cautiously-optimistic-regarding- injuries-to-top-offensive-players 17. Kalib Perry cleared to play after eligibility ruling (Courier-Journal) https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/college/louisville/2026/09/14/louisville- cardinals-football-linebacker-kalib-perry-eligible/91693948007/ 18. ACC availability report: six Cardinals ruled out for Pitt game (On3) https://www.on3.com/sites/cardinal-sports/news/player-availability-report-louisville- pittsburgh/ 19. SMU RB EJ Kelly upgraded to probable for Louisville game (Covers.com) https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/teams/main/smu-mustangs/injuries 20. SMU OT Abel Hoopii out for season with broken foot (Dallas Sports Journal) https://dallassportsjournal.com/kevin-jennings-smu-florida-state-run-game-three- running-backs-out/ 21. SMU WR Daylon Singleton and S Jaden Milliner-Jones carried questionable designation (Dallas Sports Journal) https://dallassportsjournal.com/ahmaad-moses-smu-florida-state-medical-clearance/ 22. Louisville vs SMU: Injury Report https://www.si.com/college/louisville/louisville-vs-smu-injury-report-01m2pdxx89yr 23. Football at Louisville on 9/19/2026 - Game Center - SMU Athletics https://smumustangs.com/game-center/14449 Campus https://smudailycampus.com/1068207/sports/smu-football-reloads-for-2026-with- transfer-portal-freshmen-signees/ 37. SMU's Rhett Lashlee Ready For Louisville 'Challenge' (Roundtable) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/smu/news/smus-rhett-lashlee-ready-for- louisville-challenge 38. 2026 SMU Mustangs Football Depth Chart | Ourlads.com https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/smu/91809 39. Brohm says Demeco Kennedy 'probably will not be able to go' vs SMU; Perry, Brown, Henry, Abercrombie updates (Fanrecap) https://fanrecap.com/louisville-cardinals/louisville-faces-one-problem-that-could- decide-the-smu-game--e7nF9 40. Louisville defense overhauled communication while preparing for SMU's uptempo offense (Courier-Journal) https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/columnists/c-l- brown/2026/09/16/louisville-football-vs-smu-kevin-jennings-trinidad-chambliss- clone/91514000007/ 41. Lashlee: Louisville is as talented as anyone in the ACC (Big Red Louie) https://bigredlouie.com/smu-head-coach-rhett-lashlee-delivers-perfect-message- ahead-of-massive-louisville-game- 42. SMU fall camp intel: Injury bug creeping into practice, forcing movement on OL - On3 https://www.on3.com/teams/smu-mustangs/news/smu-fall-camp-intel-injury-bug- creeping-into-practice-forcing-movement-on-ol/ 43. Kickoff | No. 23 Louisville vs. No. 16 SMU: How to watch, what to watch (WDRB) https://www.wdrbwave.com/2026/09/18/kickoff-no-23-louisville-vs-no-16-smu- how-watch-what-watch/ 44. SMU vs. Louisivlle prediction, picks, odds, spread, where to watch live (CBS Sports) https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/smu-louisivlle-prediction-picks- odds-spread-where-to-watch-live/ 45. SMU vs. Louisville Odds, Prediction & Pick: CFB Week 3 (Sharp Football Analysis) https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/smu-louisville-college-football- prediction-2026/ Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 17 of 17
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