Notre Dame vs Wisconsin
Game played Sep 6, 2026 · Published August 30, 2026 at 6:11 PM · 12 pages
Projected score, total and win probability for Notre Dame vs Wisconsin, priced against the betting line — with injuries, form and the key statistical mismatches.
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A F P L N A C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L M A T C H U P R E P O R T V S Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D A U G U S T 3 0 , 2 0 2 6 0 5 : 5 3 P M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Matchup Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 SP Ratings 04 ELO Ratings 05 FPI Ratings 06 SRS Ratings 07 Advanced Team Stats 08 Returning Production 09 Team Talent 10 Team PPA 11 Player PPA 12 Team Season Stats 13 Adjusted Team Metrics 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Injury Updates 15 Wisconsin Badgers Injury Updates 16 Key Player Matchups 17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Roster Updates 18 Wisconsin Badgers Roster Updates 19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Practice and Scrimmage Updates 20 Wisconsin Badgers Practice and Scrimmage Updates 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers Media Matchup Analysis 22 Game Conditions and Betting Context 23 Final Prediction
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01 MATCHUP OVERVIEW This is a Week 1 Shamrock Series meeting at Lambeau Field, with Notre Dame the designated home side against a Wisconsin team opening its Big Ten season on the grass in Green Bay. Notre Dame, an FBS Independent, and Wisconsin, of the Big Ten, kick off the 2026 season on September 6 at Lambeau Field in a Shamrock Series game carried on NBC. The Irish are the designated home team on a neutral field; both programs enter 0-0, and the entire night is an identity test rather than a conference-title eliminator. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 9-6-2. The Irish won the last meeting 41-13 at Soldier Field in 2021, and the older ledger is a pile of blowouts: 19-0 in 1934, 27-0 in 1935, 27-0 in 1936, a 7-7 tie in 1942, 50-0 in 1943, 28-13 in 1944, then a brief Wisconsin interruption (17-8 in 1962, 14-9 in 1963) before Notre Dame answered 31-7 in 1964. 1 What is at stake is less a trophy than a first impression. Notre Dame is being asked to look like a Playoff roster on a foreign field, with a rebuilt backfield and a receiver room that just lost its headline transfer. Wisconsin is being asked to prove that a portal- heavy rebuild under Luke Fickell can survive an opener against a defensive front that, on paper, belongs in a different weight class. Lambeau in early September is not the Frozen Tundra of folklore — it is an 80,735-seat open-air bowl in the Badgers' backyard, which is the only real environmental concession the Irish have to make. The history says Notre Dame owns this series. The 2026 versions of these rosters will decide whether that still means anything. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like- for-like from one game to the next. GAME CONDITIONS · The forecast and the ground it will be played on: temperature, wind and precipitation beside the stadium's surface, roof, capacity and elevation. Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 2 of 12
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POWER RATING DASHBOARD · SP+, FPI and Elo side by side. SP+ and FPI are points-above-average ratings; the SP+ defensive rating counts down, so a lower bar is the better defense. EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always the better number regardless of which way the raw stat runs. MISMATCH MATRIX · Each offense measured directly against the defense it will face. Bars show the percentile gap; the longer the bar, the wider that specific unit-vs-unit edge. Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 3 of 12
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SEASON FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added. This is where you see a team trending up or falling apart, which season averages hide. TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA. Cross-reference this against the injury and roster sections. ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT · How much production each team returned from last season, alongside the recruiting talent composite. Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 4 of 12
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PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM · What each rating system independently projects, plus the market line and the blended consensus used as the model's anchor. WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · The consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. The shaded area on each side is that team's win probability. 03 SP RATINGS SP+ is a points-above-average power rating; the defensive number runs in the opposite direction, so a lower defensive rating is the better defense. TEAM OVERALL OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TEAMS Notre Dame 26.5 40.6 14.3 0.3 Wisconsin 3.8 21.6 17.5 -0.3 FBS average -0.5 25.7 26.2 0.0 Notre Dame's 26.5 overall rating sits more than 27 points above the national mean and 22.7 points above Wisconsin. The offense Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 5 of 12
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is the separator: 40.6 versus an FBS average of 25.7 and Wisconsin's 21.6, which is actually below the league mean. That is not a modest edge. It is the difference between an attack that should generate explosive possessions against most of the country and one that is starting the year in a hole. Wisconsin's defense, to its credit, is a legitimate unit — 17.5 is well clear of the 26.2 national defensive average — but it is still three points worse than Notre Dame's 14.3, and it has to survive an offense that SP+ treats as elite. 1 The Power Rating Dashboard will make the same point in fewer words: the Irish are a top-shelf operation on both sides of the ball, the Badgers are a plus defense attached to a minus offense, and special teams (0.3 versus -0.3) will not save anyone. If these ratings are even close to right, Wisconsin cannot win a shootout and cannot afford to fall behind, because its own offense is not built to climb out. The only path that rates as plausible is a low-event, highly physical game in which the Badgers' 17.5 defense keeps it in range and the Irish offense has a sloppy first night. That is a plan. It is not a comfortable one. 04 ELO RATINGS No data was available for that section. 05 FPI RATINGS FPI measures expected point differential against an average opponent; it is a second, independent points-above-average system. TEAM FPI FPI RANK REMAINING SOS RANK Notre Dame 25.856 3 55 Wisconsin 4.818 42 42 Notre Dame's 25.856 FPI is a near-copy of its 26.5 SP+ and ranks third nationally. Wisconsin's 4.818 ranks 42nd. The raw gap is 21.04 points before any home-field or venue adjustment, which is the same story SP+ told, just with the serial numbers filed off. FPI is not smelling a trap. It is smelling a mismatch. 1 Where FPI adds texture is the resume framing: Notre Dame's remaining strength of schedule ranks 55th, Wisconsin's 42nd, so the Irish are not being padded by a soft September. They are simply rated as one of the three or four best teams in the country on a neutral-ish field against a Wisconsin club FPI sees as a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten roster. If you came here looking for a hidden market inefficiency in the power numbers, FPI does not have one. It agrees with SP+ that this is a three-touchdown-plus problem for the Badgers, and it agrees that the problem lives on offense. 06 SRS RATINGS No data was available for that section. 07 ADVANCED TEAM STATS No data was available for that section. 08 RETURNING PRODUCTION Returning production is last season's predicted points added that is still on the roster, split by passing, receiving and rushing, plus the share of last year's snaps those players used. TEAM TOTAL PPA BACK SHARE OF PPA PASSING PPA RECEIVING PPA RUSHING PPA USAGE BACK Notre Dame 175.6 51.2% 105.8 (90.7%) 62.4 (37.6%) 7.4 (12.3%) 46.1% Wisconsin 29.8 31.0% -2.0 24.6 (33.7%) 7.1 (31.8%) 46.8% Notre Dame brought back 175.6 PPA, more than five times Wisconsin's 29.8, and kept 51.2% of last year's production against Wisconsin's 31%. The Irish continuity is lopsided in a specific way: 90.7% of the passing PPA is back, which is the CJ Carr piece, while only 12.3% of the rushing PPA and 37.6% of the receiving PPA returned. That is a quarterback-driven roster that has to replace a backfield and a large chunk of the catch-point production. Wisconsin's number is uglier. A 31% PPA return with negative passing PPA still on the books is a rebuild, not a reload, and the 46.8% usage figure says the snaps came back without the production attached to them. 1 The Roster Continuity & Talent chart will show the same asymmetry. Notre Dame can survive a Week 1 receiver absence because the passing PPA is concentrated in the quarterback. Wisconsin cannot survive an offensive-line absence the same way, because Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 6 of 12
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there is so little production to begin with. When a team returns 29.8 PPA and then has to ask a first-year starting quarterback to function behind a patched right side, the returning-production number stops being a trivia item and becomes the reason the opener is so fragile. 09 TEAM TALENT The 247 composite talent score is a roster-wide recruiting ranking — the raw material under the depth chart, not the production that material has already posted. Notre Dame's composite is 953.03. Wisconsin's is 767.68. That 185-point gap is the recruiting equivalent of the SP+ and FPI gaps, and it is visible in the portal haul: the Irish added four-star linemen and corners from Alabama, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Michigan and Colorado, while Wisconsin's incoming class is a volume play of three-star transfers. Talent does not tackle. It does, however, explain why Notre Dame's defensive front can absorb camp injuries and Wisconsin's offensive line cannot. 1 On a neutral field, talent is supposed to matter less than scheme and experience. That theory dies when one side is replacing two projected starting linemen and the other is rolling out a defensive line that was restocked with four-stars in January. The Roster Continuity & Talent chart puts the two numbers next to the returning-PPA bars, and the combined picture is not subtle. Notre Dame has the better players and kept more of last year's production. Wisconsin is asking a less talented roster that kept less production to win a street fight in its own state. That is how 20-point favorites are born. 10 TEAM PPA No data was available for that section. 11 PLAYER PPA No data was available for that section. 12 TEAM SEASON STATS No data was available for that section. 13 ADJUSTED TEAM METRICS No data was available for that section. 14 NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH INJURY UPDATES Medical availability only, split by source. Notre Dame's Week 1 board is a receiver and an offensive line problem, not a wholesale collapse. Live web research: Quincy Porter, the four-star Ohio State transfer, is out for the Wisconsin game after January left-patellar- tendon surgery and a subsequent minor procedure in late August; Marcus Freeman has said he is still a couple of weeks away, and Micah Gilbert is expected to take the starting boundary job. 345611 Matty Augustine is out after a fifth-metatarsal fracture in his right foot that required surgery, a blow that pushes Sullivan Absher toward the Week 1 right-guard job; freshman corner Chaz Smith is also out after a scaphoid fracture in his right wrist. 7 A projected Week 1 board lists Charles Jagusah, Peter Jones, Matty Augustine, Chris Burgess, Tiki Hola, Ko'o Kia and Chaz Smith out; Quincy Porter, Brayden Robinson and Nick Reddish doubtful; and Ashton Craig, Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and Dallas Golden (shoulder brace after a lower-back strain) probable. 9 Camp designations had Burgess (left tibia stress fracture), Hola (right-knee ACL), Jagusah (left-humerus fracture), Parker/Peter Jones (right-shoulder pectoral strain) and Ko'o Kia (left-shoulder labrum) out of camp entirely, with Elijah Burress (right hamstring), Craig (left-knee ACL), Porter, Reddish, Robinson and Viliamu-Asa on modified activity and expected, at the time, to be in the Wisconsin mix. 81012 Injury feed: The stored feed's current availability flag is Quincy Porter, WR, Out, as of August 29. 2 The feed's last-14-day items are the same Porter trail — still not in individual drills as of August 16, a minor procedure on August 26, officially ruled out for Week 1 on August 27, a Freeman update on August 28, and the August 29 confirmation that the procedure will keep him out another couple of weeks — plus the August 30 depth-chart board that tags Jagusah, Jones, Augustine, Burgess, Hola, Kia and Smith out. 23456911 Porter is the only absence that changes the Irish call sheet in a way a casual viewer will see. A 40.6 SP+ offense does not become Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 7 of 12
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ordinary because one boundary receiver is in a boot, but it does become less vertical, and it does put more on Jordan Faison, Jaden Greathouse and Gilbert against a Wisconsin secondary that is supposed to be improved. The line injuries are the quieter threat. Augustine's foot and Jagusah's arm shrink the interior rotation on a night when Wisconsin's best plan is to make CJ Carr uncomfortable; Craig returning from an ACL and Absher/Otting/Prescod filling the right side is a workable Week 1 lineup, not a finished one. Viliamu-Asa's probable tag is the defensive good news — the Irish can still put a healthy-enough linebacker corps on the field — and Golden in a brace is a corner-room inconvenience rather than a crisis. Net: Notre Dame is not crippled. It is just not the cleanest version of itself, which is the only opening Wisconsin has. 15 WISCONSIN BADGERS INJURY UPDATES Medical availability only, split by source. Wisconsin's Week 1 problem is the right side of the offensive line, and it is not a small one. Live web research: Kevin Heywood (right tackle, lower-body injury on August 7) and Emerson Mandell (right guard, spring foot surgery) both missed on-field fall-camp drills, and their availability for September 6 at Lambeau is uncertain. 13 Luke Fickell said on August 23 that the staff had roughly five days to decide whether either could play; both had been limited to individual work and sprints, Heywood was out of the walking boot, and the replacements if they cannot go are Lucas Simmons-Johansson and Stylz Blackmon. 14 Injury feed: The stored feed's current availability flag is Kevin Heywood and Emerson Mandell, RT/RG, Questionable, as of August 28. 2 The feed items are the August 23 Fickell timeline and the August 28 report that both linemen had still not participated in on-field camp drills, leaving the right side of the line a game-time construction project against Notre Dame. 21314 This is the injury that actually moves a spread. Notre Dame's defensive front was restocked with four-star transfers and already rated 14.3 in SP+. Asking a first-start quarterback to function with two backups on the right side against Keon Keeley, Francis Brewu and Tionne Gray is how three-and-outs become a first-half theme. Even if one of Heywood or Mandell is active, the Badgers will not have a camp's worth of starting-five continuity, and Fickell's own public timeline treated Game 1 status as a decision rather than a plan. Simmons-Johansson and Blackmon are names, not a proven solution. If Wisconsin's upset path runs through the run game, this is the injury report trying to set that path on fire. 16 KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS The individual battles that will decide whether the power ratings hold or whether Wisconsin can turn Lambeau into a problem. The game lives in the box. Wisconsin's backfield committee — Darrion Dupree, Bryan Jackson II, Nate Palmer, with Abu Sama III in the portal mix — runs into a Notre Dame front seven that is supposed to be the Irish identity: Drayk Bowen and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa at linebacker, Jaiden Ausberry in the mix, and a restocked tackle pair of Francis Brewu and Tionne Gray. 2426 If that group wins on early downs, Colton Joseph is a dual-threat quarterback playing his first game as a Badger against a pass rush of Keeley, Bryce Young and Boubacar Traore, possibly with Lucas Simmons-Johansson and Stylz Blackmon on his right. 2225 That is not a skill-matchup so much as a physics problem. Joseph ran for more than 1,000 yards at Old Dominion last year; Notre Dame will dare him to do it between the tackles, then hunt him when he holds the ball. 22 The other side of the ball is cleaner for the Irish even without Quincy Porter. CJ Carr will see Sebastian Cheeks, Nick Clayton and Mason Posa coming off the edge, with Cooper Catalano next to Posa and nickel Bryce West plus Jal'mier Scott on the back end. 2327 Wisconsin's entire upset script is "make Carr uncomfortable." The Irish counter is a camp full of under-center looks and a receiver group that still has Jordan Faison and a healthy Jaden Greathouse, with Micah Gilbert inheriting Porter's boundary snaps. 323 Aneyas Williams, asked to lead a rebuilt backfield, draws Posa and Catalano — the one Wisconsin unit that grades out as a genuine strength. 2728 If Williams can force those linebackers to play the run, Carr's play-action file opens; if he cannot, Wisconsin gets the down-and-distance leverage it needs to let Cheeks and Posa tee off. No published preview has named a specific WR-CB shadow, so the Irish will likely move Faison and Greathouse around rather than donate a one-on-one. The telling matchup is still the one nobody can scheme around: Notre Dame's edge rush against whatever right side of the Wisconsin line shows up. 17 NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster movement only. The portal is the ground truth; the camp news is the last coat of paint. Transfer portal: Incoming, all four-stars: Francis Brewu, DL, Pittsburgh (0.94); Quincy Porter, WR, Ohio State (0.94); Tionne Gray, DL, Oregon (0.94); Keon Keeley, DL, Alabama (0.93); Jayden Sanders, CB, Michigan (0.92); DJ McKinney, CB, Colorado (0.91); Mylan Graham, WR, Ohio State (0.91). 1 Outgoing: Kenny Minchey, QB, to Kentucky (4-star); Joshua Burnham, EDGE, to Indiana; Scrap Richardson, WR, to Auburn; JaDon Blair, S, to Missouri; Cree Thomas, CB, to Colorado; Karson Hobbs, CB, to Florida State; KK Smith, WR, to Michigan State; Anthony Sacca, LB, to UCLA; Preston Zinter, EDGE, to Rice; Taebron Bennie-Powell, S, to Boise State; Gi'Bran Payne, RB, to Cincinnati; Bodie Kahoun, LB, to Boston College; Armel Mukam, DL, no destination listed; Chance Tucker, CB, no destination listed; Junior Tuihalamaka, EDGE, to LSU (dated August 20); Ben Minich, S, to Miami (OH). 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 8 of 12
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Live web research: Notre Dame named Drayk Bowen, CJ Carr, Jordan Faison and Shuler as its four captains for 2026. 33 On the interior, Styles Prescod has been given a real look at right guard as the staff sorts a competition that also includes Sullivan Absher and Joe Otting. 324 The incoming list is a defensive-line shopping spree dressed up as a roster. Brewu, Gray and Keeley are the reason the Wisconsin offensive-line injuries matter as much as they do; Sanders and McKinney are why a Golden brace and a Smith wrist do not collapse the secondary. The outgoing list is longer and noisier — Minchey to Kentucky, a cluster of three-star skill and defensive backs — but the one that still has camp dust on it is Tuihalamaka's August 20 move to LSU, a four-star edge leaving after the summer. That is a real subtraction from the pass-rush rotation, just not enough of one to make Keeley, Young and Traore look thin. Prescod's promotion into the right-guard conversation is the roster echo of Augustine's foot; captains Bowen, Carr, Faison and Shuler are the leadership structure Freeman is sending into a hostile-adjacent building. Net of the portal, this is still a heavier, more talented roster than Wisconsin's. It is also a roster that replaced a lot of running backs and just lost an edge in August, which is why Week 1 will look more like a stress test than a coronation. 18 WISCONSIN BADGERS ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster movement only. Wisconsin rebuilt by volume; the Week 1 question is whether any of it has settled. Transfer portal: Incoming (all three-stars): Shamar Rigby, WR, Oklahoma State; Abu Sama III, RB, Iowa State; Jacob Harris, TE, Bowling Green; Austin Kawecki, IOL, Oklahoma State; Justus Boone, EDGE, Arkansas; Colton Joseph, QB, Old Dominion; Marvin Burks Jr., S, Missouri; Junior Poyser, DL, Buffalo; Liam Danitz, EDGE, Hope; Zion Kearney, WR, Oklahoma; Jayden Loftin, EDGE, Tennessee; Stylz Blackmon, IOL, Augustana; Bryce West, CB, Ohio State; Eric Fletcher, CB, Oklahoma State; Jon Jon Kamara, LB, Kansas; Jaylon Domingeaux, WR, Southeastern Louisiana; Malachi Coleman, WR, Minnesota; Bryan Jackson, RB, USC; Hammond Russell IV, DL, West Virginia; Javan Robinson, CB, Arizona State; Cai Bates, CB, Florida State; PJ Wilkins, IOL, Ole Miss; Blake Cherry, OT, Arkansas; Jake Anderson, DL, Illinois State; DeNigel Cooper, DL, App State; Deuce Adams, QB, Louisville; Carson Van Dinter, S, Iowa State; Ryan Schwendeman, TE, Southern Illinois; Lucas Simmons, OT, Florida State; Nate Palmer, RB, TCU. 1 Outgoing highlights: Joe Brunner, IOL, to Indiana (4-star, 0.93); Tucker Ashcraft, TE, to USC; Christian Alliegro, LB, to Ohio State; Trech Kekahuna, WR, to North Carolina; Billy Edwards Jr., QB, to North Carolina; Jake Renfro, IOL, to Illinois; Dilin Jones, RB, to LSU; plus a long list of three-star defensive backs, edges and specialists. 1 Live web research: Colton Joseph, the Old Dominion transfer, has reportedly beaten out Ryan Hopkins and Deuce Adams for the Week 1 start, though Wisconsin has not made it official; Joseph threw for 4,251 yards and 32 touchdowns in two ODU seasons and ran for more than 1,000 yards last year. 22 Shamar Rigby, the Oklahoma State transfer, has been flagged as a fall-camp receiver breakout. 41 Thirty incoming three-stars is not a program adding pieces. It is a program replacing a team. Brunner to Indiana is the loss that stings on a night when Mandell and Heywood are already in doubt; Edwards to North Carolina is why Joseph is even in this conversation. The Joseph decision, even unofficial, at least ends the camp quarterback fog — a dual-threat with real production is a better Week 1 answer than a three-way split. It does not end the structural problem. A first start, a patched right side, and a 21.6 SP+ offense against a 14.3 defense is still a brutal assignment, no matter how many portal wideouts (Rigby, Kearney, Coleman, Domingeaux) are on the call sheet. Wisconsin has more new names than Notre Dame. Notre Dame has better ones. 19 NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Camp reporting: who practiced, who flashed, and what the Irish are actually installing for Lambeau. Freeman said Porter's August minor procedure will keep him out even longer, and he described a "deep wideout room" that has not yet made those plays in a real game; Jaden Greathouse, limited to four catches for 73 yards in 2025 by a hamstring, has been "unbelievable" in camp per Carr, and Micah Gilbert has "stepped up tremendously." 45 Quarterbacks coach Gino Guidugli's case for the opener is that practicing against Chris Ash's defense is the prep: Carr will see every look, and the offense has added under-center snaps specifically to hide run/pass tells. 4546 Aneyas Williams, coming off elbow surgery, is the lead back in a room of sophomores and freshmen (Nolan James Jr., Kedren Young, Jonaz Walton, Javian Osborne) that camp reports call inexperienced. 45 Jayden Sanders and DJ McKinney are competing at field corner, with Sanders also taking nickel reps while Dallas Golden was banged up; Luke Talich is the third safety, and freshman Joey O'Brien has turned heads. 34 Behind Carr, sophomore Blake Hebert and true freshmen Noah Grubbs and Teddy Jarrard — none of whom have taken a college snap — are still competing, and Freeman has said a Week 1 No. 2 will be named without it being a season-long verdict. 47 The practice tape, such as it is, says the Irish are trying to make Week 1 look like another day against themselves. That is a luxury Wisconsin does not have, and it is also a tell: Guidugli would not be selling "you've already seen every look" if he were not worried about a first-night offense on a foreign field. Greathouse at full health is the single most important camp development on this side of the ball, because Porter is not walking through that door. Williams as a trusted, ball-chasing lead back is the other one — the rushing-PPA return rate of 12.3% means this ground game is a camp creation, and Wisconsin's linebackers will be the first live exam. The backup-quarterback derby is only relevant if Carr gets hit. Given the offensive-line attrition and Wisconsin's stated plan to hunt him, that is not a hypothetical the Irish should treat as cute. Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 9 of 12
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20 WISCONSIN BADGERS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES No data was available for that section. 21 NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH VS WISCONSIN BADGERS MEDIA MATCHUP ANALYSIS What the national and local media, analysts and coaches are actually saying about this opener, not what a betting graphic implies. The one firmly dated, high-confidence media development of the last two weeks is the Joseph report: Fighting Irish Wire, citing Sean Wright, says the Old Dominion transfer has won the job over Hopkins and Adams heading into Lambeau, which at least gives preview writers a name to hang the upset on. 22 Around that, the Wisconsin-side previews have been blunt. Sports Illustrated's Badgers desk framed the game as a pressure-Carr problem for Cheeks, Clayton and Posa, and separately floated the "trap game" label for Notre Dame — the classic Week 1 warning that a heavy favorite on a foreign field is how you wake up 0-1. 2359 Notre Dame-side copy has been just as unromantic in the other direction: the Irish open as a heavy favorite, the defense is expected to control the night, and any Wisconsin upset is supposed to run through the backfield against Bowen, Viliamu-Asa and the Brewu-Gray interior. 242658 The honest read of that coverage is that nobody with a byline is picking Wisconsin straight up, and the people paid to find Badger hope keep landing on the same two sentences: rush Carr, and run it. That is not a diverse set of theories. It is one theory, repeated, because the alternative — Joseph dropping back to beat Keeley, Young and Traore with a right side that may not include Heywood or Mandell — does not survive contact with a sentence. The trap-game chatter is the closest thing Wisconsin has to a media ally, and even that argument concedes the talent gap; it just asks you to believe Notre Dame will be bored and sloppy in Green Bay. Bored 26.5 SP+ teams still have 14.3 defenses. Media can sell atmosphere. It cannot sell Wisconsin a second starting offensive line. 22 GAME CONDITIONS AND BETTING CONTEXT The forecast, the building, the surface, and the market — and what those things do to this specific matchup. Lambeau Field is an open-air grass bowl in Green Bay, capacity 80,735, elevation 192 meters, opened in 1957. The forecast is 76.5°F, humidity 54%, dew point 58.6, wind 7.6 mph from the east (81°), zero precipitation, zero snow. It is not indoors. The Game Conditions chart will show a pleasant September evening, not a weather event. 1 A 7.6-mph east wind does not punish downfield passing. Rain is not here to crown the better ground game or drag a total down. Elevation is a rounding error. The only venue fact that matters is the one the forecast cannot touch: 80,735 in Green Bay, on grass, with Notre Dame as the Shamrock Series "home" team and Wisconsin as the program that actually lives here. That is a crowd edge for the Badgers and a surface that should keep the Irish' and Badgers' ground games honest. It is not a 10-point swing. Against the spread there is nothing to report — neither team has a 2026 ATS record, because neither has played. The market has Notre Dame -20 / -20.25 with a 47.5 total (Bovada, DraftKings) and a 91.6% pregame win probability on the Irish. The statistical baseline, a 50/50 blend of the ratings consensus (24.27 points) and that market line, sits at a 22.26-point Notre Dame margin, a 51.2 projected total, and a 95.0% Irish win probability, translating to a 37-14 rounded baseline score. As the Projected Margin by System and Win Probability Distribution charts will show, every number on the sheet is pointing at the same quadrant: Notre Dame by multiple scores, Wisconsin needing a clean, low-variance night it is not currently built to produce. The weather will not bail the under out. The building might shave a point or two off the Irish' theoretical home-field, and that is the entire environmental case. 23 FINAL PREDICTION Notre Dame wins this game, and it will not be particularly close. The baseline consensus margin is 22.26 points, a 50/50 blend of the ratings (SP+ 25.1, FPI 23.44, average 24.27, including 2.4 points of home-field) and the market's 20.25. Strip the home-field the model handed a designated-home team at Lambeau — this is a neutral-site Shamrock Series game in Green Bay, not South Bend — and you are already closer to 20 than 24. Porter's absence is a real but bounded cut to a 40.6 SP+ offense that still has Carr, Faison and a healthy Greathouse; Wisconsin's likely right-side reconstruction against Keeley, Brewu and Gray is the bigger live variable, and it cuts the other way. Net of those, the number that is honest is Notre Dame 35, Wisconsin 14, a 21-point margin. That is a one-point trim from the baseline, not a rewrite. The market is Notre Dame -20.25 with a 47.5 total. A 21-point projection is a lay: take Notre Dame -20.25. The projected 49 points is a play on the over 47.5 — 76 degrees, 8-mph wind and a dry grass field will not sit on this total, and an Irish offense that still rates in the 40s should clear 30 even without Porter. There is no 2026 ATS record to lean on, and no reason to invent one. Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 10 of 12
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The case is three facts that all point the same direction. First, the power ratings agree — SP+ 26.5 to 3.8, FPI 25.9 to 4.8, talent 953 to 768 — and the four-system disagreement you are supposed to hunt for does not exist, because Elo and SRS never showed up. Second, the mismatch is on the line of scrimmage, where a Notre Dame front restocked with four-star transfers meets a Wisconsin right side that may be Simmons-Johansson and Blackmon, in front of a quarterback making his first start as a Badger. Third, the weather is a non-event, which means the Irish' efficiency edge is allowed to show up rather than get buried in a Lambeau wind. Wisconsin can rush Carr and run Dupree until the down marker stops moving. That is a plan for a respectable loss. It is not a plan for a cover. THE VERDICT · The projected final score, win probability, the model's spread set against the market and the pick that comparison implies — the report's bottom line in one card. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. Notre Dame will be without Quincy Porter against Wisconsin in Week 1 (Badger of Honor) https://badgerofhonor.com/notre-dame-will-be-without-a-top-playmaker-against- wisconsin-in-week-1 4. Freeman updates Quincy Porter injury, quarterback battle, and offensive line competition (ABC57) https://www.abc57.com/news/marcus-freeman-updates-quincy-porter-injury- quarterback-battle-and-offensive-line-competition 5. Quincy Porter undergoes 'minor procedure'; other Notre Dame personnel updates (247Sports) https://247sports.com/college/notre-dame/longformarticle/notebook-quincy-porter- undergoes-minor-procedure-other-notre-dame-personnel-updates-from-fighting-irish- college-football-head-coach-marcus-freeman-289099022/ 6. Notre Dame football patiently awaits full version of WR Quincy Porter (South Bend Tribune) https://www.southbendtribune.com/story/sports/college/football/2026/08/16/notre- dame-football-wr-quincy-porter-injury-update-fall-camp-august-16/91213347007/ 7. Matty Augustine injury creates another right guard decision for Notre Dame (UHND.com) https://www.uhnd.com/football/2026/08/12/matty-augustine-injury-creates-another- right-guard-decision-for-notre-dame/ 8. Marcus Freeman gives Notre Dame injury updates ahead of fall camp (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/marcus-freeman-notre-dame-injury- updates-fall-camp 9. 2026 Notre Dame depth chart breakdown: injury designations vs. Wisconsin (18 32. Notre Dame football gives Styles Prescod his shot at right guard https://www.southbendtribune.com/story/sports/college/football/2026/08/25/notre- dame-football-gives-styles-prescod-his-shot-at-right-guard/91402374007/ 33. Notre Dame football has announced its four captains for the ‘26 season https://fightingirishwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/fighting- irish/football/2026/08/29/notre-dame-football-news-update-2026-captain-bowen- carr-faison-shuler-marcus-freeman/91522972007/ 34. Notre Dame’s Deep Defense Giving Chris Ash Plenty of Options | Irish Sports Daily (Irish Sports Daily) https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/28076/notre-dames-deep-defense-giving-chris-ash- plenty-of-options 35. Projecting Notre Dame’s full offensive depth chart after Fall camp https://atozsports.com/college-football/notre-dame-fighting-irish-news/notre- dame-football-projecting-offensive-depth-chart-marcus-freeman-cj-carr/ 36. Final Notre Dame position battle should have the fanbase worried https://atozsports.com/college-football/notre-dame-fighting-irish-news/notre- dame-football-position-battle-fanbase-worried-marcus-freeman-styles-prescod/ 37. Notre Dame football has a rich man's problem to figure out https://atozsports.com/college-football/notre-dame-fighting-irish-news/notre- dame-football-rich-mans-problem-position-battle-jayden-sanders-dj-mckinney- marcus-freeman/ 38. Wisconsin Badgers football depth chart projections for 2026 season https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/uw/2026/08/24/wisconsin-badgers- football-depth-chart-projections-for-2026-season/91439196007/ 39. Updated Wisconsin Football Projected Two-Deep Post-Fall Camp https://www.si.com/college/wisconsin/football/updated-wisconsin-football- projected-two-deep-post-fall-camp 40. Report: Wisconsin has picked it starting QB to face Notre Dame https://bluewaterhealthyliving.com/news/national-news/indiana/report-wisconsin- has-picked-it-starting-qb-to-face-notre-dame/ Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 11 of 12
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Stripes) https://18stripes.com/the-2026-notre-dame-depth-chart-breakdown/ 10. Notre Dame football fall camp injury report: five players ruled out (On3) https://www.on3.com/teams/notre-dame-fighting-irish/news/notre-dame-fighting-irish- football-fall-camp-injury-report-2026/ 11. Marcus Freeman reveals latest on Quincy Porter and Junior Tuihalamaka (Irish Sports Daily) https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/28035/marcus-freeman-reveals-latest-on-quincy-porter- junior-tuihalamaka 12. Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman provides injury updates before fall camp (247Sports) https://247sports.com/college/notre-dame/article/marcus-freeman-provides-injury- updates-before-notre-dame-fighting-irish-college-football-2026-season-fall-camp- 288703921/ 13. UW Badgers may be down 2 offensive linemen vs. Notre Dame (Duke FM) https://duke.fm/2026/08/28/uw-badgers-may-be-down-2-offensive-linemen-vs-notre- dame/ 14. Decisions coming on Game 1 status of Wisconsin's Mandell, Heywood (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/uw/2026/08/23/decision-coming-on- game-1-status-of-wisconsin-football-linemen-emerson-mandell-kevin- heywood/91435251007/ 15. Wisconsin Football: 2 Badgers starters have status up in air for Week 1 | Bucky's 5th Quarter https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/wisconsin-badgers-football/90607/wisconsin- badgers-football-news-injury-updates-2-starters-status-in-air-week-1-notre-dame- fighting-irish-kevin-heywood-emerson-mandell 16. Luke Fickell Updates the Health of Kevin Heywood, Emerson Mandell as Fall Camp Ends https://www.si.com/college/wisconsin/football/luke-fickell-updates-the-health-of- kevin-heywood-emerson-mandell-as-fall-camp-ends 17. Potentially Down 2 Starters, Badgers may Need Eric Mateos to Work his Magic Immediately https://www.si.com/college/wisconsin/football/potentially-down-2-starters-badgers- may-need-eric-mateos-work-his-magic-immediately 18. Badgers' Starting Safety Dealing With Injury Late in Fall Camp https://www.si.com/college/wisconsin/football/badgers-starting-safety-dealing-with- injury-late-in-fall-camp 19. Luke Fickell shares injury updates on Emerson Mandell, Kevin Heywood https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/uw/2026/08/14/wisconsin-football- coach-luke-fickell-shares-injury-updates-on-emerson-mandell-kevin- heywood/91301886007/ 20. Wisconsin Football: Badgers starting guard remains out after surgery | Bucky's 5th Quarter https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/wisconsin-badgers-football/90501/wisconsin- badgers-football-news-starting-guard-emerson-mandell-out-fall-camp-after-offseason- surgery 21. Wisconsin Football: Badgers missing star OL with injury in fall camp | Bucky's 5th Quarter https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/wisconsin-badgers-football/90496/wisconsin- badgers-football-news-trying-to-be-smart-kevin-heywood-injury-update-luke-fickell 22. Wisconsin may have made its QB pick to start against Notre Dame (Fighting Irish Wire (USA Today)) https://fightingirishwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/fighting- irish/football/2026/08/29/notre-dame-football-news-update-wisconsin-badgers- opener-2026-shamrock-series-starting-qb-joseph/91526391007/ 23. Three Early Thoughts on Wisconsin's Huge Week 1 Showdown With Notre Dame (Sports Illustrated (Wisconsin)) https://www.si.com/college/wisconsin/football/three-early-thoughts-on-wisconsin-s- huge-week-1-showdown-with-notre-dame 24. Expectations for Notre Dame Football in Week 1 vs Wisconsin (Sports Illustrated (Notre Dame)) https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-week-1-expectations-vs- wisconsin 25. Wisconsin Badgers Set To Face Challenging Veteran-heavy Roster To Open 2026 Season (Wisconsin Sports Heroics) https://wisportsheroics.com/wisconsin-badgers-questions-notre-dame-opener/ 26. Wisconsin's upset bid over Notre Dame will come down to 1 area (A to Z Sports) https://atozsports.com/college-football/notre-dame-fighting-irish-news/notre-dame- football-wisconsin-potential-upset-bid-marcus-freeman-colton-joseph-abu-sama-iii/ 27. Early intel on what Notre Dame should expect from Wisconsin (A to Z Sports) https://atozsports.com/college-football/notre-dame-fighting-irish-news/notre-dame- football-early-intel-wisconsin-badgers-marcus-freeman-colton-joseph/ 28. Preseason Preview: Wisconsin Badgers Meet Strong Notre Dame Squad In Green Bay (Wisconsin Sports Heroics) https://wisportsheroics.com/preseason-preview-wisconsin-badgers-notre-dame/ 29. Notre Dame's Coordinators Gearing Up For Their Season Opener Against Wisconsin https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/notre-dame/news/notre-dames-coordinators- gearing-up-for-their-season-opener-against-wisconsin 30. Wisconsin Faces An Early Reality Check Against Notre Dame | Fanrecap.com https://fanrecap.com/wisconsin-badgers/wisconsin-faces-an-early-reality-check- against-notre-dame--PmJCH 31. No confirmed Notre Dame roster news for August 2026 (Search summary) https://www.google.com/search?q=Notre+Dame+roster+news+August+2026 41. Wisconsin Football: Surprise Badgers WR breaking out in Fall camp | Bucky's 5th Quarter https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/wisconsin-badgers-football/90603/wisconsin- badgers-football-news-luke-fickell-reveals-surprise-receiver-really-important-2026- shamar-rigby-transfer 42. Predicting Three Wisconsin Football Depth Chart Week 1 Surprises https://www.si.com/college/wisconsin/football/predicting-three-wisconsin-football- depth-chart-week-1-surprises 43. Wisconsin Badgers football depth chart projections for 2026 from QB to kicker https://bluewaterhealthyliving.com/news/national-news/wisconsin/wisconsin- badgers-football-depth-chart-projections-for-2026-from-qb-to-kicker/ 44. UW Badgers may be down 2 offensive linemen vs. Notre Dame | WTAQ News Talk | 97.5 FM · 1360 AM | Green Bay, WI https://wtaq.com/2026/08/28/uw-badgers-may-be-down-2-offensive-linemen-vs- notre-dame/ 45. Notre Dame WR Quincy Porter out longer after August minor procedure (Chicago Tribune (via syndication)) https://bancodeprofissionais.com/2026/08/30/notre-dame-football-storylines/ 46. CJ Carr takes on larger leadership role, more under-center looks in camp (Irish Sports Daily / South Bend Tribune (via syndication)) https://www.koranmanado.co.id/en/cj-carr-prepares-under-center-shift 47. Notre Dame's backup quarterback derby remains unsettled as opener nears (Irish Sports Daily) https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/27923/notre-dame-marcus-freeman-eye-two-key- position-battles-entering-fall-camp 48. Football vs Notre Dame on 9/6/2026 | Game Center https://uwbadgers.com/game-center/17124 49. Football 2026-27 - Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Official ... https://fightingirish.com/sports/football/schedule 50. Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (Sep 6, 2026) Live Score https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401858438/wisconsin- notre-dame 51. Wisconsin Badgers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Live Score https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/wisconsin-badgers-vs-notre-dame- fighting-irish-sep-06-2026-game-boxscore-44516 52. 2026 Shamrock Series | Cheer - Notre Dame Hospitality https://hospitality.nd.edu/cheer/shamrock/ 53. Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, see latest ... https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/notre-dame-vs-wisconsin-lambeau- 115718442.html 54. Darrion Dupree carries the load in Wisconsin football scrimmage https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/uw/2026/08/23/darrion-dupree- carries-the-load-other-takeaways-from-wisconsins-football- scrimmage/91409454007/ 55. What Jeff Grimes has learned about Wisconsin football’s offense during fall camp https://www.badgernotes.com/p/jeff-grimes-wisconsin-football-offense-late-fall- camp-2026 56. Biggest Takeaways from Wisconsin's Scrimmage to Wrap up Fall Camp https://www.si.com/college/wisconsin/football/biggest-takeaways-from-wisconsin- s-scrimmage-to-wrap-up-fall-camp 57. Badger Breakdown: Luke Fickell on scheduling, special teams | Badgers | wkow.com https://www.wkow.com/sports/badgers/badger-breakdown-luke-fickell-on- scheduling-special-teams/article_749a1786-76d8-47f2-b828-79cc34967a89.html 58. Notre Dame Opens As Heavy Favorite Over Wisconsin in 2026 Season Opener https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-opens-as-heavy- favorite-over-wisconsin-2026-season-opener 59. Why the Badgers' Opener vs. Notre Dame is a 'Trap Game' for Fighting Irish https://www.si.com/college/wisconsin/football/why-the-badgers-opener-notre- dame-is-trap-game-fighting-irish 60. Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Preview: Season Openers Clash – Beatline Sports https://www.beatlinesports.com/2026/08/23/beatline-cfb-wis-at-nd-2026-09-06/ 61. Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wisconsin Badgers Pick, Odds https://www.capperspicks.com/free-picks/ai/notre-dame-fighting-irish-at- wisconsin-badgers-pick-ncaa-football-prediction-preview-odds-9-6-2026/ 62. Wisconsin vs Notre Dame NCAAF Betting Prediction September 6, 2026 – Capper Reviews https://capperreviews.com/wisconsin-vs-notre-dame-ncaaf-betting-prediction- september-6-2026/ Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Wisconsin Badgers · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 12 of 12
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