Oklahoma vs Texas
Game played Oct 10, 2026 · Published October 8, 2026 at 11:29 PM · 12 pages
Projected score, total and win probability for Oklahoma vs Texas, priced against the betting line — with injuries, form and the key statistical mismatches.
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A F P L N A C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L M A T C H U P R E P O R T V S Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D O C T O B E R 8 , 2 0 2 6 1 0 : 1 2 P M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Matchup Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 SP Ratings 04 ELO Ratings 05 FPI Ratings 06 SRS Ratings 07 Advanced Team Stats 08 Returning Production 09 Team Talent 10 Team PPA 11 Player PPA 12 Team Season Stats 13 Adjusted Team Metrics 14 Oklahoma Sooners Injury Updates 15 Texas Longhorns Injury Updates 16 Key Player Matchups 17 Oklahoma Sooners Roster Updates 18 Texas Longhorns Roster Updates 19 Oklahoma Sooners Practice and Scrimmage Updates 20 Texas Longhorns Practice and Scrimmage Updates 21 Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns Media Matchup Analysis 22 Game Conditions and Betting Context 23 Final Prediction
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01 MATCHUP OVERVIEW No. 1 Texas brings a 4-0 record into the Cotton Bowl as a 7.5-point favorite, while Oklahoma enters at 2-2 and desperate to avoid a third straight Red River loss — something that has not happened to the Sooners since 1997-99 61. ABC has the call from Dallas 51. This is the first SEC-era Red River game with both teams in the same league, and the gap in program trajectory is stark: Texas has won four straight in the series since Oklahoma's 34- 30 upset in 2023, with the last two meetings going 34-3 and 23-6 51. The all-time series sits at Texas 62-51-5 51. Oklahoma's only path to relevance this season runs through a defense that ranks among the best in the country, because an offense ranked 120th nationally in total yards is not going to outscore anybody 61. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like-for-like from one game to the next. GAME CONDITIONS · The forecast and the ground it will be played on: temperature, wind and precipitation beside the stadium's surface, roof, capacity and elevation. POWER RATING DASHBOARD · SP+, FPI and Elo side by side. SP+ and FPI are points-above-average ratings; the SP+ defensive rating counts down, so a lower bar is the better defense. Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 2 of 12
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EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always the better number regardless of which way the raw stat runs. Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 3 of 12
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MISMATCH MATRIX · Each offense measured directly against the defense it will face. Bars show the percentile gap; the longer the bar, the wider that specific unit-vs-unit edge. SEASON FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added. This is where you see a team trending up or falling apart, which season averages hide. Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 4 of 12
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TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA. Cross-reference this against the injury and roster sections. ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT · How much production each team returned from last season, alongside the recruiting talent composite. Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 5 of 12
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PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM · What each rating system independently projects, plus the market line and the blended consensus used as the model's anchor. WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · The consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. The shaded area on each side is that team's win probability. 03 SP RATINGS SP+ is a points-above-average rating; a lower defensive rating means a better defense. The two defenses are identical by this metric; the game is decided elsewhere. TEAM OVERALL OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TEAMS Oklahoma 12.8 26.1 13.6 0.2 Texas 22.4 35.7 13.6 0.3 Texas holds a 9.6-point SP+ offensive edge over Oklahoma, while the defenses are mirror images at 13.6 1. That is the entire ballgame boiled down to one number. Oklahoma's special teams lag by a tenth of a point, which is noise. The Sooners' SP+ profile says they can hang if they turn this into a defensive struggle; the Longhorns' profile says they can separate if their offense finally plays to its talent. The SP+ gap alone implies Texas by abouta touchdown after home-field adjustment 1. Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 6 of 12
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04 ELO RATINGS Elo is a head-to-head power rating. Oklahoma sits at 1731, Texas at 1930 1. That 199-point gap translates to roughly eight points on a neutral field using the standard 25 Elo points per point of margin, and the statistical baseline applies a 2.4-point home-field bump for the nominal home team, leaving Texas abouta 5.6-point favorite by this system alone 1. Elo agrees with SP+ on direction but is the friendliest of the three rating inputs to Oklahoma — a reminder that the Sooners have not been as bad over a longer window as their current four-game form suggests. . Their problem isn't the past; it is that they are trending down while Texas is trending up. 05 FPI RATINGS FPI measures points-above-average against an average opponent. Oklahoma is at 13.517, Texas at 27.591 1. The gap of roughly 14.1 points is the largest of the three power ratings, and FPI's efficiency split shows why: Texas' offense efficiency rating of 67.333 dwarfs Oklahoma's 39.422, while the Sooners' defense efficiency (89.615) is only slightly behind Texas' (94.614) 1. FPI also respects Oklahoma's schedule — strength of schedule rank 3 — and Texas' resume is No. 1 in the country 1. This is the ratings system that believes Texas wins this game by double digits, and it is hard to argue with the offensive gap that produced it. 06 SRS RATINGS The simple rating system is pure points-based strength adjusted for schedule. Oklahoma is at 4.3, Texas at 25.7 1. The 21.4-point gap is the largest margin of any rating system in this report, and it reflects schedule-adjusted blowouts: Oklahoma lost by 7 at Michigan and by 28 at Georgia, while Texas has beaten Ohio State, Tennessee, UTSA and Texas State by a combined 80 points 1. All four ratings systems agree on the favorite;none of them flags this as a coin flip. But SRS is the only system that says the Sooners are merely average — the other three still see a top-25ish team beneath the 2-2 record 1. 07 ADVANCED TEAM STATS All metrics below are converted to national percentiles against all FBS teams, so the outer ring in the Efficiency Profile is always better regardless of direction. The table tells the story of two elite defenses and one helpless offense. | Metric | Oklahoma (pct) | Texas (pct) | |---|---|---|---| | Off. PPA/play | -0.045 (7.2) | 0.110 (39.1) | | Off. Success Rate | 0.392 (18.8) | 0.455 (63.8) | | Off. Explosiveness | 1.112 (12.3) | 1.143 (18.1) | | Off. Line Yards | 2.603 (8.7) | 2.818 (22.5) | | Off. Pts/Opportunity | 3.389 (27.5) | 4.250 (63.8) | | Def. PPA/play | -0.182 (100.0) | -0.056 (80.4) | | Def. Success Rate | 0.304 (97.8) | 0.350 (81.2) | | Def. Explosiveness | 1.235 (48.6) | 1.094 (84.1) | | Def. Line Yards | 2.364 (89.9) | 2.554 (81..9) | | Def. Havoc | 0.216 (91..3) | 0.206 (89..1) | Oklahoma's defense is in the 100th percentile in PPA/play allowed, the 97.8th percentile in success rate and the 91.rd in havoc 1.Texas' defense is elite too, but not on Oklahoma's level per play. The mismatch is on the other sideline: Oklahoma's offense ranks in the 7th percentile in PPA, the 8.7th percentile in line yards and the 12.3rd percentile in explosiveness 1. Texas' offense, by contrast, is merely above average — ripe for a letdown game. That is exactly what makes this total so low and why Oklahoma's path to an upset runs through its defense forcing the Longhorns into 17-13 territory 59. 08 RETURNING PRODUCTION Returning production measures the share of last season's PPA and usage each roster brought back, including transfer additions. TEAM TOTAL RET. PPA PCT USAGE PASS PCT REC PCT RUSH PCT Oklahoma 181.3 63.2% 74.6% 92.1% 41.6% 121.6% Texas 187.5 72.1% 58.0% 85.4% 55.0% 126.4% Texas returned more total production and a higher percentage of it than Oklahoma, though both backfields were rebuilt through the portal — hence rushing return percentages over 100% 1. Oklahoma returned 92.1% of its passing production, which is why John Mateer is carrying this offense on his back; but it also returned just 41.6% of its receiving production, and the receiving corps has been decimated by injury since 114. Texas returned 72.1% overall, has more weapons, and still has Arch Manning piloting everything — the roster continuity edge belongs to the Longhorns 1. 09 TEAM TALENT The 247 composite talent score measures the recruiting base underneath the roster. Oklahoma checks in at 851.14, Texas at 985.17 1. That 134-point gap is enormous at this level — it is the difference between a fringe top-25 roster and a national championship roster. Texas has recruited and transferred at an elite clip, bringing in five-stars like WR Cam Coleman and pass rushers like EDGE Colin Simmons, while Oklahoma has been patching holes through the portal rather than stacking blue-chips 1. Talent is not destiny in this rivalry — Oklahoma won the 2023 edition with a lesser roster — but it is the reason Texas is the No. 1 team and the favorite despite an offense that hasn't always played like it 61. 10 TEAM PPA Team PPA is predicted points added per play, week by week; negative defensive numbers are good because they mean the opponent's PPA was negative. | Week | Oklahoma Off. PPA | Oklahoma Def. PPA | Texas Off. PPA | Texas Def. PPA | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | 1 (UTEP/Texas State) | 0.39 | -0.49 | 0.46 | -0.01 | | 2 (Michigan/Ohio State) | -0.14 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.12 | | 3 (New Mexico/UTSA) | -0.08 | -0.23 | 0.04 | -0.17 | | 4 (Georgia/Tennessee) | -0.30 | -0.02 | -0.14 | -0.17 | Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 7 of 12
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Oklahoma's offense has gone backwards every single week since the UTEP laugher, from 0.39 PPA down to -0.30 against Georgia 1. Texas' offense has also trended down, from 0.46 to -0.14 in its last outing at Tennessee — but its defense has stabilized after the Ohio State slip. Oklahoma's defense, outside the Michigan game, has been a PPA-suppressing machine 1. The Season Form Trend visual shows two teams moving in opposite directions at different speeds: Texas is flatlining on offense but winning with defense; Oklahoma's offense is in freefall but its defense is still championship-grade. Something has to give, and it usually gives toward the team whose quarterback isn't turning the ball over. 61. 11 PLAYER PPA Player PPA ranks the individuals actually moving the needle. Here are the top contributors by total PPA this season 1. TEAM PLAYER POS TOTAL PPA AVG PPA/PLAY Oklahoma John Mateer QB 35.884 0.241 Oklahoma Rocky Beers TE 16.387 0.745 Oklahoma Isaiah Sategna WR 15.084 0.431 Oklahoma Trell Harris WR 8.672 0.788 Oklahoma Hayden Hansen TE 8.001 1.600 Oklahoma Jonathan Hatton Jr. RB -5.956 -0.397 Texas Arch Manning QB 28.855 0.195 Texas Ryan Wingo WR 20.082 0.744 Texas Cam Coleman WR 15.636 0.823 Texas Hollywood Smothers RB 15.036 0.301 Texas Sterling Berkhalter WR 5.753 1.918 Texas Raleek Brown RB 1.117 0.019 Mateer is the entire OU offense — 35.9 total PPA — but his running backs are all negative, led by Hatton Jr. at -6.0 1. Texas has positive contributors at quarterback, receiver and running back, and Smothers' return gives the backfield its most efficient weapon back for this game 33. OU's second-best pass catcher, Trell Harris, is out indefinitely 14. That leaves Sategna and the tight ends against a Texas secondary that has allowed just a 0.215? Actually Texas passing defense PPA -0.033 1 — good luck with that. 12 TEAM SEASON STATS Raw counting stats agree with the advanced numbers: Oklahoma has 1,285 total yards to Texas' 1,514, with the Sooners averaging 2.93 yards per carry to Texas' 3.64 1. Oklahoma has committed 10 turnovers and forced just 4; Texas is even at 5-and-5 1. The Sooners have been outscored 106-9 in their three losses to Texas under Venables,wand have scored 37 points combined in their last three games 61. Texas' raw scoring average of 33.25 points per game is inflated by the 59-7 opener; its PPA numbers say the offense is closer to above-average than dominant. Oklahoma's raw 22.0 ppg is inflated by the 51-0 UTEP game; since then, this is a 12.3-point-per-game offense 161. The turnover gap is the loudest number in this section: Oklahoma cannot afford to hand a defense like Texas' short fields, and it has done that 10 times in four games 1. 13 ADJUSTED TEAM METRICS Adjusted EPA strips out opponent quality. Oklahoma's offense sits at 0.035 EPA/play, Texas at 0.112; Oklahoma's defense has allowed -0.043 EPA/play, Texas' -0.007 1. That means, after schedule adjustment, Oklahoma's defense has actually been better than Texas' defense per play — and Texas' offense has been only moderately better than Oklahoma's offense. The adjusted rushing numbers are brutal for the Sooners: Oklahoma's offense is at -0.046 EPA/rush, while Texas is at +0.053; Oklahoma's defense allows just -0.0001 EPA/rush, effectively stonewalling the run game 1. This is the profile of a low-scoring game where Texas' offensive line and running backs — now with Smothers back — will try to grind out a 20-point win while hoping Mateer hands them the ball a few times. . The advanced metrics also show Texas' explosiveness allowed at 0.919 versus Oklahoma's 0.959, meaning neither defense gives up many chunk plays — another reason the total sits so low 1. 14 OKLAHOMA SOONERS INJURY UPDATES Live web research: No structured live-web findings were available for this section. Injury feed: - DT David Stone — Available, fully recovered from dislocated kneecap; played through it against Georgia 17. - LB Kip Lewis — Available, returned from leg injury and played limited snaps against Georgia 14. - WR Trell Harris — Out (indefinite), internal organ laceration 14. - LB Taylor Heim — Out 14. - OT Michael Fasusi — Doubtful, shoulder/arm injury re-aggravated in opener; scans show improvement but he is not locked in 81011. - RB Xavier Robinson — Out after getting banged up during practice last week 610. - CB Jacobe Johnson — Out after leaving the Georgia game on crutches 5. - S Michael Boganowski — Questionable after injury vs Michigan 613. - LB Cole Sullivan — Questionable after leg injury vs Michigan 614. - WR Jer'Michael Carter — Questionable on initial Texas report after being downgraded to out for Georgia 613. - OL Fred Hinton — Doubtful 6. - TE Trynae Washington — Doubtful 6. - OL Eddy Pierre-Louis — Questionable 6. - TE Jack Van Dorselaer — Questionable 6. - LB Owen Heinecke — Probable 6. Oklahoma's injury report is a depth chart apocalypse on offense: the starting left tackle, the starting running back,and the second-most productive receiver are all out or doubtful 68101114. The defense is healthier — Stone and Lewis are back — but the secondary and linebacker depth are being tested with Johnson out and Boganowski/Sullivan questionable561314. Venables hinted multiple players who missed Georgia could return for Texas, but specifics did not arrive until Wednesday's report 16. Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 8 of 12
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15 TEXAS LONGHORNS INJURY UPDATES Live web research: No structured live-web findings were available for this section. Injury feed: - RB Hollywood Smothers — Probable, returned to practice during the bye week after missing Tennessee with a lower-leg injury 192433. - TE Nick Townsend — Probable, returned to practice after knee injury and is expected to play 1234. - EDGE Colin Simmons — Expected to play, took maintenance days during bye week and was cleared before Tennessee 2536. - OT Trevor Goosby — Probable, took a maintenance day but returned fine 37. - DL Justus Terry — Out, turf toe with no return timeline 1234. - OL Jordan Coleman — Out, still in boot with no timetable 34. - S Xavier Filsaime — Out, has not played or practiced this season 35. Texas' injury news is almost all positive: Smothers, Townsend, Simmons and Goosby are all trending toward playing, giving the Longhorns their healthiest offensive skill rotation since September 33343637. The only significant losses are interior DL depth with Terry out and OL depth with Coleman out — real but not game-breaking against an OU offense that can barely block anyone 34. Texas' defense remains fully operational, and that is the side of the ball that matters most in this matchup. 16 KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS Texas EDGE Colin Simmons vs. Oklahoma's offensive tackles. Fasusi is doubtful, which means the Sooners will face Simmons — who had a school-record 5.5 sacks against Tennessee — with backup tackles or a compromised left tackle 86136. Oklahoma's offensive line ranks in the 8.7th percentile in line yards and has allowed eight sacks in four games 1. OU offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle called Texas' pass rush "special" and said it "can definitely be a game changer" 56. This is the mismatch that could turn the game into a rout. . Texas RB Hollywood Smothers vs. Oklahoma's front seven. Smothers leads Texas with 198 rushing yards and returns after a one-game absence 2033. He runs behind an offensive line whose run game ranks 88th nationally, against an OU defense ranked in the 89.9th percentile in line yards allowed 162. Sarkisian said the running game will decide this game, and Oklahoma's defensive tackles David Stone and Jayden Jackson are exactly the guys he called "elite" 62. Smothers is efficient — 0.301 PPA/play — but he is running into the best run defense he has seen all year 1. Texas WRs Ryan Wingo/Cam Coleman vs. Oklahoma's backup secondary. Wingo has 20.1 total PPA and Coleman 15.6; both are explosive downfield threats 1. Oklahoma will be without CB Jacobe Johnson, and Venables said he is confident in the backups 549. Texas' 10-personnel package — built to get WR Jermaine Bishop more snaps — could put four receivers on the field against an OU secondary that has generated DB havoc on just 7.0% of plays 150. If Manning gets time, the Sooners' secondary is the most likely place Texas finally breaks a big play. . . ** Oklahoma WR Isaiah Sategna vs. Texas' secondary. Sategna is OU's most consistent pass-catcher with 15.1 total PPA, and the offense has nobody else scary after Trell Harris' injury 5414. Texas' passing defense has allowed -0.033 PPA/play and has three interceptions 1. This is a mismatch in favor of Texas, and it is why OU's offensive ceiling is probably 17 points, not 24. 17 OKLAHOMA SOONERS ROSTER UPDATES Transfer portal — incoming (verified CFBD): WR Trell Harris (Virginia, 4,0.93); OT E'Marion Harris(Arkansas,4,0.93); WR Parker Livingstone(Texas,4,0.92); TE Jack Van Dorselaer(Tennessee,4,0.90); TE Hayden Hansen(Florida,3,0.88); LB Cole Sullivan(Michigan,3,0.87); CB Dakoda Fields(Oregon,3,0.87); DL Bishop Thomas(Georgia State,3,0.86); OT Peyton Joseph(Georgia Tech,3,0.86); EDGE Kenny Ozowalu(UTSA,3,0.86); IOL Caleb Nitta(WKU,3,0.86); RB Lloyd Avant(Colorado State,3,0.85); TE Rocky Beers(Colorado State,3,0.85); WR Mackenzie Alleyne(Washington State,3,0.85); CB Prince Ijioma(MVSU,3,0.83); OT Fred Hinton(Eastern Kentucky,3,0.83) 1. Transfer portal — outgoing (verified CFBD): LB Sammy Omosigho→UCLA(4,0.91); LB Kobie McKinzie→Northwestern(4,0.90); WR JaVonnie Gibson→Cincinnati(3,0.89); RB Taylor Tatum→Michigan(3,0.88); TE Carson Kent→Pitt(3,0.87); CB Gentry Williams→Georgia(3,0.87); DL Markus Strong→Clemson(3,0.87); WR Zion Kearney→Wisconsin(3,0.86); S Kendel Dolby→Mississippi State(3,0.86); S Jaydan Hardy→Colorado(3,0.86); WR Ivan Carreon→(3,0.86); QB Michael Hawkins Jr.→West Virginia(3,0.86); CB Devon Jordan→Baylor(3,0.86); RB Jovantae Barnes→Kentucky(3,0.86); OT Jake Taylor→Iowa State(3,0.86); TE Kaden Helms→Minnesota(3,0.86); OT Jacob Sexton→Oklahoma State(3,0.86); WR Jayden Gibson→South Carolina(3,0.86); OT Logan Howland→Virginia Tech(3,0.86); OT Luke Baklenko→Arizona State(3,0.86); OT Isaiah Dent→Mississippi State(3,0.86); IOL Troy Everett→Ole Miss(3,0.85); S Marcus Wimberly→Utah(3,0.85); CB Maliek Hawkins→West Virginia(3,0.85); WR Zion Ragins→Mississippi State(3,0.85); WR KJ Daniels→UAB(3,0.84); DL Ricky Lolohea→App State(3,0.83); EDGE Adepoju Adebawore→(5); WR Josiah Martin→North Texas(3) 1. Researched news: Venables backed John Mateer as Oklahoma's quarterback for Texas,acknowledging his performance "has not met expectations" 48. No other non-injury roster moves were reported. . 18 TEXAS LONGHORNS ROSTER UPDATES Transfer portal — incoming (verified CFBD): WR Cam Coleman(Auburn,5,0.98); RB Hollywood Smothers(NC State,4,0.94); LB Rasheem Biles(Pitt,4,0.93); OT Melvin Siani(Wake Forest,4,0.93); RB Raleek Brown(Arizona State,4,0.92); DL Ian Geffrard(Arkansas,4,0.92); CB Bo Mascoe(Rutgers,4,0.91); WR Sterling Berkhalter(Wake Forest,4,0.91); OT Jonte Newman(Texas A&M,3,0.87); IOL Laurence Seymore III(WKU,3,0.87); LB Justin Cryer(Florida State,3,0.87); IOL Dylan Sikorski(Oregon State,3,0.86); DL Zion Williams(LSU,3,0.86); IOL Paris Patterson(SMU,3,0.86); TE Michael Masunas(Michigan State,3,0.86); LB Markus Boswell(Akron,3,0.85); LB Darius Snow(Michigan State,3,0.85); QB MJ Morris(Coastal Carolina,3,0.85); CB Nick Hudson(Brown,3,0.83); LS Trey Dubuc(New Mexico,2); P Mac Chiumento(Florida State); K Gianni Spetic(Memphis,2) 1. Transfer portal — outgoing (verified CFBD): WR DeAndre Moore Jr.→Colorado(4,0.94); RB Quintrevion Wisner→Florida State(4,0.93); WR Parker Livingstone→Oklahoma(4,0.92); IOL Nick Brooks→Alabama(4,0.92); LB Liona Lefau→Colorado(4,0.90); LB Elijah Barnes→Kentucky(4,0.90); RB CJ Baxter→Kentucky(3,0.89); RB Jerrick Gibson→Purdue(3,0.88); TE Jordan Washington→North Carolina(3,0.88); DL Lavon Johnson→Maryland(3,0.88); RB Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 9 of 12
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Christian Clark→South Carolina(3,0.88); IOL Nate Kibble→Baylor(3,0.87); IOL Connor Stroh→Kansas(3,0.87); WR Jaime Ffrench Jr.→Michigan(3,0.87); QB Trey Owens→Arkansas State(3,0.86); IOL Daniel Cruz→NC State(3,0.86); WR Aaron Butler→(3,0.86); S Derek Williams Jr.→(3,0.86); RB Rickey Stewart Jr.→Stephen F. Austin(3,0.85); CB Caleb Chester→Arizona State(3,0.85); DL Melvin Hills III→UConn(3,0.85); CB Santana Wilson→Louisville(3,0.85); IOL Neto Umeozulu→North Texas(3,0.84); S Warren Roberson→(4; CB Kobe Black→(4; S Graham Gillespie→North Texas; RB Colin Page→North Texas; K Will Stone→UCF(2) 1. Researched news: Texas installed a 10-personnel package to get freshman WR Jermaine Bishop more snaps without taking the top three receivers off the field, and Sarkisian stressed flexible personnel groupings over a fixed starting lineup for Oklahoma 50. No suspensions, transfers, or eligibility rulings involving active Texas players have been reported in the last 14 days 47. 19 OKLAHOMA SOONERS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Oklahoma used its bye week to attack fundamentals. OC Ben Arbuckle said the Sooners spent the extra week on blocking, run-game basics, and quick passing, adding that Texas ranks fourth nationally in sacks per game and 11th in scoring defense — so OU's line had to take a step forward 53. Arbuckle also promised "wrinkles" for Texas, saying "something might pop up" — the extra week let OU install new looks for a defense that has been suffocating 54. The first SEC availability report listed 13 Sooners, with RB Xavier Robinson going out after getting banged up in practice last week and LT Michael Fasusi listed doubtful — those are practice-week developments that directly shape the game plan 63. OT Ryan Fodje spent the week talking about Colin Simmons specifically, calling him "extremely twitchy" and saying this could be one of the better front sevens OU has faced 56. Venables' Monday night comments hinted at possible returns for Texas, with specifics held until Wednesday 16. No scrimmage results were reported; this was a rest-and-install week, not a live-rep week 5557. 20 TEXAS LONGHORNS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Texas also came off a bye week, and the theme was health. RB Hollywood Smothers returned to practice and is expected to play; TE Nick Townsend also returned; EDGE Colin Simmons took maintenance days but is fully expected to play; OT Trevor Goosby took a maintenance day and was fine 33343637. Practice intel indicated Smothers was trending up and LB Justin Cryer was taking command on defense ahead of OU 58. Sarkisian said Thursday the team is healthier than it was a week ago, which is a direct threat to an Oklahoma team whose own injury list grew during its off week 34. No scrimmage action was reported — Texas used the bye mostly to get walking wounded back onto the practice field, and it worked. The Longhorns' first SEC availability report was shorter than Oklahoma's, and Smothers wasn't even on it 3. 21 OKLAHOMA SOONERS VS TEXAS LONGHORNS MEDIA MATCHUP ANALYSIS The national media has framed this almost entirely around Oklahoma's defense versus Texas' underachieving offense. NBC Sports notes the total of 39.5 is the lowest of the week and that OU's red-zone defense has allowed points on just 60% of opponent drives — best among Power Four programs 59. The AP reminds everyone OU has scored 37 points in its last three games and ranks 120th in total offense 61. Statesman columnists Thomas Jones and Cedric Golden picked Texas 26-9 and 31-17, respectively, with Golden calling Oklahoma's defense "no joke" and Texas' offense"underachieving" 3963. SportsInsider's best bet is Oklahoma +7.5 60. Sarkisian himself called OU's defensive front "elite," singled out David Stone and Jayden Jackson, and said the running game will decide the game 62. A 247Sports insider column framed this as a trap-door game for Texas against a"desperate" 2-2 OU team 45. The Tulsa World angle is whether OU can stop Arch Manning and Colin Simmons 4143. Everyone agrees on the formula: Texas by a touchdown or so, total in the 30s, with OU's only hope being that its defense turns this into a 17-13 slugfest. The media is split on whether the Sooners' defense can actually hold up that long against a healthier Texas backfield 204560. 22 GAME CONDITIONS AND BETTING CONTEXT The Cotton Bowl is an open-air, artificial-turf venue in Dallas with a capacity of 92,100 and an elevation of 133 meters — no dome, no altitude tricks, just 92,000 people screaming at the State Fair of Texas 1. Weather at kickoff: clear, 86.5°F, humidity 42%, no precipitation, wind 3.4 mph from 187° 1. That is a near-calm, hot, dry day. It does not suppress downfield passing; a 3.4-mph breeze is nothing. This total is low because both defenses are elite and both offenses have struggled, not because weather is going to move the number. Against the spread, Oklahoma is 1-3 with an average cover margin of -7.87; Texas is also 1-3 with an average cover margin of +3.25 1. The market has Texas -7.5 and the total at 39.25, with the market's pregame win probability for Oklahoma at 30.2% against the statistical baseline of 28.1% 1. The baseline consensus margin is Texas -7.82, nearly identical to the betting line 1. Two 1-3 ATS teams, one ugly total, anda rivalry game — the sharpest number on the board is the under, not the side 5960. 23 FINAL PREDICTION Texas wins the Red River Rivalry, but it will have to drag Oklahoma's corpse across the finish line. . FIRST, my number: The statistical baseline consensus sitting at Texas -7.82, projected 24-16 1. I am adjusting it one more possession toward Texas: Oklahoma 13, Texas 23. That is a 10-point Texas win. The adjustment comes from injuries and health: Oklahoma is missing its starting running back, starting left tackle is doubtful, its second receiver is out indefinitely, and its offensive line ranks in the 8.7th percentile in line yards 1681410. Texas, meanwhile, gets its leading rusher back, its starting tight end back, and its best pass rusher off maintenance days 333436. An offense that was already 120th nationally just got worse; the defense that was keeping OU in games cannot also score points, and this is a rivalry where Texas has outscored OU 106-9 in the three losses under Venables 61. My number: Oklahoma 13, Texas 23. SECOND, the market: The actual line is Texas -7.5 with a total of 39.25 1. Since I project Texas by 10, the play is Texas -7.5 — lay the points, don't get cute despite the rivalry spot. The total: Under 39.25. My 13-23 projection lands at 36 points, and both defenses are in the top 20 nationally in success rate allowed; neither offense has shown anything close to enough explosion to push this over 1. Where no total was available I would say so — it is available, and I'm taking the under with confidence. THIRD, the case: Three things decide this. First, Oklahoma cannot block Texas' edge rush: Fasusi doubtful against Colin Simmons, whose 5.5-sack Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 10 of 12
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game against Tennessee was a school record, and OU's line already ranks in the 8.7th percentile in line yards 8611. Second, Texas finally has its full backfield while OU's is gutted: Smothers returns with 198 rushing yards and the run game will decide this per Sarkisian, while Oklahoma's leading RB is out and its ground game ranks 131st nationally 20662. Third, the weather does nothing to help the Sooners: clear skies, 86 degrees, 3.4-mph wind — no rain, no wind, no chaos to shrink the game into a one-possession coin flip 1. The under is the play; the side is Texas. THE VERDICT · The projected final score, win probability, the model's spread set against the market and the pick that comparison implies — the report's bottom line in one card. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. Texas vs Oklahoma injury report: Hollywood Smothers to play (Austin American-Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/football/article/texas-football-oklahoma-injury-update- 22467707.php 4. OU football: Who's in, out on injury report for Texas game? https://tulsaworld.com/sports/college/ou/article_351ccecc-607d-4fc1-9ef8-e7b397443b60.html 5. Red River Rivalry injury report: Texas gets healthier, OU has more questions (On3 (Texas Longhorns)) https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/red-river-rivalry-injury-report-texas-gets-healthier- oklahoma-ou-more-questions/ 6. Oklahoma lists 13 players on initial availability report ahead of Texas (247Sports (Oklahoma Sooners)) https://247sports.com/college/oklahoma/article/oklahoma-texas-initial-availability-report-injuries-red- river-2026-290981178/ 7. Initial injury report released for No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/initial-injury-report-released-no-012227646.html 8. OU vs Texas availability report: What is Michael Fasusi's status for the Red River Rivalry? - On3 (On3 (Oklahoma Sooners)) https://www.on3.com/teams/oklahoma-sooners/news/ou-vs-texas-availability-report-what-is-michael- fasusis-status-for-the-red-river-rivalry/ 9. Where Does Oklahoma's OL Stand According to Initial SEC Availability Report Ahead of Red River Shootout? https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/football/where-does-oklahoma-s-ol-stand-according-to-initial-sec- availability-report-ahead-of-red-river-shootout-01m4cdgs44pz 10. U-Texas Availability: Fasusi Doubtful, Xavier Robinson Out https://ouinsider.com/ou-texas-availability-report-michael-fasusi-doubtful-xavier-robinson-out/ 11. Oklahoma OT Michael Fasusi listed as doubtful on SEC injury report ahead of Texas - On3 https://www.on3.com/news/oklahoma-ot-michael-fasusi-listed-as-doubtful-on-sec-injury-report-ahead-of- texas/ 12. Texas TE Nick Townsend listed as probable, DL Justus Terry doubtful on Wednesday's SEC injury report https://247sports.com/college/texas/article/texas-te-nick-townsend-listed-as-probable-dl-justus-terry- doubtful-on-wednesdays-sec-injury-report--290981106/ 13. WR Jer'Michael Carter Downgraded to Out (Sooners Wire) https://soonerswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/sooners/football/2026/09/24/oklahoma-football- georgia-bulldogs-sec-availability-report/91929539007/ 14. LB Kip Lewis Cleared to Play Against Georgia (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/football/friday-s-sec-availability-report-brings-good-news-for- oklahoma-01m3dasf8ke9 15. DL David Stone Questionable With Knee Dislocation (On3) https://www.on3.com/teams/oklahoma-sooners/news/ou-at-uga-availability-report-friday-latest-on- david-stone-for-sooners/ 34. Texas TE Nick Townsend returns to practice, likely to play vs Oklahoma (Burnt Orange Nation / Hookem Headlines) https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/105504/texas-longhorns- injuries-bye-week-oklahoma-sooners 35. Texas S Xavier Filsaime yet to play in 2026, out vs Oklahoma (Hookem Headlines / Burnt Orange Nation) https://hookemheadlines.com/texas-gives-injury-non-update-on-hollywood-smothers-nick- townsend-status-once-again 36. Texas EDGE Colin Simmons expected to play vs Oklahoma after bye (Fanrecap / Burnt Orange Nation) https://fanrecap.com/texas-longhorns/texas-gets-encouraging-colin-simmons-news-before- tennessee-showdown--bjtAa 37. Texas OT Trevor Goosby takes maintenance day, fine (Scoop podcast (Inside Texas)) https://exa.ai/library/podcast/hrw88mv5n8n/episode/q7hczcwscq9 38. Texas-OU Roundtable Part II: Talk about the pageantry, tradition (Austin American- Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/sports/texas-longhorns/article/red-river-oklahoma-texas-cotton- bowl-22468103.php 39. Texas football vs Oklahoma. What to know about Red River Rivalry (Austin American- Statesman (statesman.com)) https://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/football/article/texas-football-arch-manning- oklahoma-sooners-22462688.php 40. Five Longhorns Players Who Could Decide Texas vs. Oklahoma https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/five-longhorns-players-who-could-decide-texas-vs- oklahoma 41. OU football: Sooners defense looks to stop QB Arch Manning https://tulsaworld.com/sports/college/ou/article_0aa82286-a960-406b-a2b0- 5cb286c7a5b4.html 42. 3 Keys for the Oklahoma Sooners offense vs. No. 1 Texas Longhorns - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/3-keys-oklahoma-sooners-offense-113038291.html 43. OU football: Can Sooners stop Colin Simmons, Texas defense? https://tulsaworld.com/sports/college/ou/article_9763852c-b224-469d-a105- 43a25c75e74e.html 44. Oklahoma’s Offensive Line Problems Could Be Exactly What Texas Needs https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/oklahoma-offensive-line-problems-could-be-exactly- what-texas-needs 45. The Insider: The Coach shares where the blind spots - and opportunities - are for No. 1 Texas versus Oklahoma (247Sports) https://247sports.com/college/texas/longformarticle/the-insider-the-coach-shares-where-the- blind-spots-and-opportunities-are-for-no-1-texas-versus-oklahoma-290990744/ 46. Everything Texas Head Coach Steve Sarkisian Said In His Red River Thursday Press Conference - On3 https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/everything-texas-head-coach-steve- sarkisian-said-in-his-red-river-thursday-press-conference/ Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 11 of 12
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16. Venables Hints at Possible Returns for Texas, No Specifics Until Wednesday (A to Z Sports) https://atozsports.com/college-football/oklahoma-sooners-news/getting-good-news-injury-health-for- matchup-vs-texas-wednesday/ 17. Oklahoma DT David Stone Ready vs. Texas After Knee Injury (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/football/oklahoma-dt-david-stone-ready-to-go-vs-texas-after- injury-bye-week-01m47tf0jw5s 18. Texas RB Hollywood Smothers expected to return for Oklahoma game; LT Michael Fasusi doubtful for Sooners (247Sports, Longhorns Wire) https://247sports.com/college/texas/article/texas-te-nick-townsend-listed-as-probable-dl-justus-terry- doubtful-on-wednesdays-sec-injury-report--290981106/; https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/longhorns/football/2026/10/08/texas-football-injury- report-rb-hollywood-smothers-ready-for-oklahoma/92153858007/ 19. Longhorns Injury Report: RB Hollywood Smothers ready for Red River https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/football/2026/10/08/texas-football- injury-report-rb-hollywood-smothers-ready-for-oklahoma/92153858007/ 20. Texas vs Oklahoma football: Why Hollywood Smothers return is key in 2026 Red River Rivalry - Yahoo Sports (Yahoo Sports / Austin American-Statesman) https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texas-vs-oklahoma-football-why-184535301.html 21. Initial injury report released for No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma | Burnt Orange Nation https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/105562/texas-longhorns-oklahoma- sooners-injury-report 22. Texas A&M RB KJ Edwards expected to return vs. LSU after leaving Kentucky game (Aggies Wire (USA Today)) https://aggieswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/aggies/football/2026/09/24/texas-aggies-footballl- kj-edwards-expected-to-return-vs-lsu-on-saturday/91915323007/ 23. Amier Boyd ruled out for Sam Houston game, hopes to return next week (Roundtable.io) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/texas-tech/news/how-to-watch-texas-tech-vs-sam-houston-red-raiders- hope-to-perfect 24. Hollywood Smothers upgraded to probable for Texas vs. Tennessee (On3) https://www.on3.com/news/hollywood-smothers-listed-as-probable-for-texas-vs-tennessee-on-friday- availability-report/ 25. Colin Simmons removed from injury report, expected to play (On3) https://www.rockytopinsider.com/2026/09/25/tennessee-football-vs-texas-friday-availability-report/ 26. Texas A&M RB Jamarion Morrow downgraded to doubtful for LSU (KBTX) https://www.kbtx.com/2026/09/26/texas-ams-morrow-downgraded-doubtful-lsu/ 27. Six starters on Texas Tech injury report for Colorado game (Lubbock Avalanche-Journal) https://www.lubbockonline.com/story/sports/college/red-raiders/2026/09/30/texas-tech-football-injury- availability-report-colorado-terrance-carter/92028127007/ 28. Austin Romaine and Adam Trick probable for Colorado game (Colorado Buffaloes Wire) https://coloradobuffaloeswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/buffaloes/football/2026/10/01/colorado- texas-tech-football-initial-injury-report/92033902007/ 29. Terrance Carter Jr. to play vs Colorado (Red Raiders Wire) https://redraiderswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/red-raiders/football/2026/10/02/texas-tech- football-injury-report-colorado-terrance-carter/92057480007/ 30. Texas A&M Makes Final Injury Decision on Mario Craver vs. Arkansas (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/tamu/football/texas-am-makes-final-injury-decision-on-mario-craver-vs- arkansas 31. Texas A&M football injury update on LB Tamarion Watkins (Aggies Wire (USA Today)) https://aggieswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/aggies/football/2026/10/05/texas-aggies-football- tamarion-watkins-injury-update-missouri/92109878007/ 32. Texas A&M Depth Chart Analysis: Players Who Could Be Rising or Falling Entering Week 6 (247Sports) https://247sports.com/article/texas-am-aggies-football-depth-chart-sec-cfb-cfp-290918705/ 33. Texas RB Hollywood Smothers returns to practice before Oklahoma (Texas Football Info / Hookem Headlines / Burnt Orange Nation) https://texasfootballinfo.com/texas-healthier-roster-red-river-boost/ 47. Hollywood Smothers Could Give Texas a Different Look Against Oklahoma (Aggregate of reviewed sources (see notes)) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/hollywood-smothers-could-give-texas-different-look- against-oklahoma 48. Venables backs Mateer as Oklahoma's quarterback for Texas (The Pate State / The Wire) https://thepatestate.com/wire/venables-backs-mateer-as-oklahoma-prepares-for-texas 49. Oklahoma HC Brent Venables Confident in Backup DBs With Jacobe Johnson Out https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/football/oklahoma-hc-brent-venables-confident-in- backup-dbs-with-jacobe-johnson-out-01m4e2px1ja8 50. Jermaine Bishop’s 10-personnel package offers new look for Texas vs Oklahoma (Burnt Orange Nation) https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/105544/jermaine-bishop-10- personnel-steve-sarkisian 51. SERIES HISTORY GAME DAY INFORMATION https://texaslonghorns.com/documents/download/2026/10/6/06_-_Oklahoma.pdf 52. Oklahoma vs Texas: Key players listed on Wednesday Availability report https://soonerswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/sooners/football/2026/10/07/oklahoma- football-availability-report-injury-report-texas-sec/92146089007/ 53. Can Oklahoma Nullify the 'Special' Texas Pass Rush? (SI.com (Sooners on SI)) https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/football/can-oklahoma-nullify-the-special-texas-pass- rush-01m4a33467ws 54. Does Oklahoma's Offense Have Any Surprises in Store for Texas? (SI.com (Sooners on SI)) https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/football/does-oklahoma-s-offense-have-any-surprises- in-store-for-texas-01m4cg2g432y 55. Practice Report: What did OU football do to gain an advantage during their bye week? (BVM Sports) https://bvmsports.com/2026/10/08/practice-report-what-did-ou-football-do-to-gain-an- advantage-during-their-bye-week/ 56. Oklahoma braces for Texas pass rusher Colin Simmons in Cotton Bowl (NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth) https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/sports/ncaaf/oklahoma-bracing-for-texas-elite-pass-rusher- colin-simmons-in-cotton-bowl-clash/4088596/ 57. Key Takeaways From Brent Venables' Press Conference Ahead of Oklahoma's Matchup vs. Texas https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/oklahoma/news/key-takeaways-from-brent-venables-press- conference-ahead-of-oklahomas-matchup-vs-texas 58. Texas Practice Intel: Smothers Trending Up, Cryer Taking Command Ahead of OU https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/texas-practice-intel-smothers-trending-up- cryer-taking-command-ahead-of-ou/ 59. NBC Sports: Red River line has lowest total of the week at 39.5; OU red-zone defense is best in Power Four (NBC Sports) https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/college-football/news/texas-vs-oklahoma-prediction-odds- expert-picks-team-and-player-news-betting-trends-and-stats 60. SportsInsider lists injury report for both teams; best bet Oklahoma +7.5 (SportsInsider) https://www.sportsinsider.com/ncaaf/picks/ncaaf-showdown-texas-vs-oklahoma-red-river- rivalry-pick/ 61. AP: Oklahoma ranks 120th in total offense, has scored 37 points in last three games entering Texas matchup (WTOP News / Associated Press) https://wtop.com/college-sports/2026/10/no-1-texas-has-reversed-role-and-a-reminder-in-red- river-game-against-2-loss-unranked-oklahoma/ 62. Sarkisian calls OU defensive front 'elite'; notes running game will decide the Red River game (Yahoo Sports / Inside Texas) https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texas-beat-ou-third-row-214005641.html 63. Statesman columnists debate magnitude of a potential OU upset; Texas offense called 'underachieving' (Austin American-Statesman (statesman.com)) https://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/football/article/texas-football-oklahoma-2026- 22465594.php 64. Sports Rounders market preview: Texas -7.5 vs Oklahoma +7.5 at major books (Sports Rounders) https://www.sportsrounders.com/college-football/predictions/texas-longhorns-vs-oklahoma- sooners-prediction-2026-10-10 65. Is Texas favored vs Oklahoma? Betting lines, predictions, preview for Red River Rivalry - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texas-favored-vs-oklahoma-betting-110000679.html Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 12 of 12
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