Oregon vs UCLA
Game played Oct 10, 2026 · Published October 9, 2026 at 1:03 AM · 14 pages
Projected score, total and win probability for Oregon vs UCLA, priced against the betting line — with injuries, form and the key statistical mismatches.
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A F P L N A C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L M A T C H U P R E P O R T V S Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D O C T O B E R 9 , 2 0 2 6 1 2 : 4 3 A M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Matchup Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 SP Ratings 04 ELO Ratings 05 FPI Ratings 06 SRS Ratings 07 Advanced Team Stats 08 Returning Production 09 Team Talent 10 Oregon Ducks Injury Updates 11 UCLA Bruins Injury Updates 12 Key Player Matchups 13 Oregon Ducks Roster Updates 14 UCLA Bruins Roster Updates 15 Oregon Ducks Practice and Scrimmage Updates 16 UCLA Bruins Practice and Scrimmage Updates 17 Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins Media Matchup Analysis 18 Game Conditionsand Betting Context 19 Final Prediction
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01 MATCHUP OVERVIEW This is a ranked Big Ten collision between No. 13 Oregon and unbeaten No. 21 UCLA at Autzen Stadium, with major conference positioning and a quarterback subplot on the line. The series has deep history: UCLA carries the all-time lead, 40 wins to Oregon's 33 with no ties, but Oregon has owned the modern series, winning nine of the last ten meetings including a 38-35 thriller in 2020 and a 34-13 win at the Rose Bowl in 2024 1. Saturday's game airs on CBS 1. Oregon enters at 3-1, the lone blemish a 39-31 loss at Oklahoma State, while UCLA is 4-0 with wins over California, San Diego State, Purdue and Maryland 1. Everything about this week has been framed by the quarterback situation: Dante Moore, the former Bruin now Oregon starter, was ruled out while still in concussion protocol, meaning Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola will make his first Oregon start 322. That turns this into a fascinating stylistic fight: UCLA owns one of the most run-heavy, clock-eating offenses in the country, while Oregon still has the explosive passing game that was built around Moore. Autzen Stadium is the stage, and the stakes are simple: the loser leaves with a Big Ten blemish, the winner keeps its CFP ceiling intact 37. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like- for-like from one game to the next. GAME CONDITIONS · The forecast and the ground it will be played on: temperature, wind and precipitation beside the stadium's surface, roof, capacity and elevation. Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 2 of 14
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POWER RATING DASHBOARD · SP+, FPI and Elo side by side. SP+ and FPI are points-above-average ratings; the SP+ defensive rating counts down, so a lower bar is the better defense. Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 3 of 14
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EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always the better number regardless of which way the raw stat runs. Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 4 of 14
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MISMATCH MATRIX · Each offense measured directly against the defense it will face. Bars show the percentile gap; the longer the bar, the wider that specific unit-vs-unit edge. SEASON FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added. This is where you see a team trending up or falling apart, which season averages hide. Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 5 of 14
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TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA. Cross-reference this against the injury and roster sections. ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT · How much production each team returned from last season, alongside the recruiting talent composite. Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 6 of 14
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PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM · What each rating system independently projects, plus the market line and the blended consensus used as the model's anchor. WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · The consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. The shaded area on each side is that team's win probability. 03 SP RATINGS SP+ rates teams in points above or below average per game, with the defensive rating counting down — a lower defensive number is better. The ranking field is ignored; it reads "1" for both teams in this feed but carries no comparative value 1. TEAM SP+ OVERALL OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TEAMS Oregon 21.6 40.3 19.0 0.3 UCLA 13.8 #####35.7 #####22.0 #####0.1 FBS average 0.4 #####26.6 #####26.2 #####0.0 Oregon's 7.8-point overall SP+ edge is real, but the structure of that edge matters more than the number. The Ducks are rated Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 7 of 14
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4.6 points better on offense and 3.0 points better on defense, with special teams essentially a wash. As the Power Rating Dashboard shows, this is a top-tier offense against a good-not-great defense, and a solid Oregon defense against an offense that is much less dangerous through the air than on the ground 1. The defensive gap is where this matchup gets tricky. Oregon's defense rates well in SP+, but that rating was built against a schedule that includes Boise State, Oklahoma State, Portland State and USC. UCLA's run game is the most physical thing Oregon has seen, and the Ducks are simultaneously dealing with injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. SP+ still says Oregon is the better team, but it does not say the gap is comfortable. 04 ELO RATINGS Elo is a head-to-head power rating recalculated from game results, not a points-based projection. Oregon's 1844 Elo against UCLA's 1660 creates a 184-point gap, which converted at roughly 25 Elo points per point of margin equals about 7.4 points on a neutral field 1. TEAM ELO Oregon 1844 UCLA 1660 Add in the 2.4-point home-field advantage baked into the model, and that Elo gap expands to roughly 9.8 points — essentially a ten-point Oregon edge 1. That is the most conservative of the three power ratings in this feed, but it also may be the most honest given the quarterback change. Elo does not know Dante Moore is out, nor does it know UCLA has covered every spread this season. It just knows these two teams' résumés, and that résumé gap is smaller than the SP+ and FPI gap suggest 1. 05 FPI RATINGS FPI measures points above average against an average opponent, with efficiency components layered on top. Oregon's 21.585 FPI versus UCLA's 10.295 makes the Ducks roughly 11.3 points better on a neutral field; with home field, that is a 13.7-point projection 1. TEAM FPI OVERALL EFFICIENCY OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TEAMS Oregon 21.585 83.7 75.0 77.0 72.0 UCLA 10.295 77.9 72.9 73.5 55.1 Schedule strength rank Oregon 21st UCLA 113th The FPI schedule numbers explain a lot of the gap: Oregon has played a top-25 schedule while UCLA's slate ranks 113th, and FPI still slots UCLA's average win probability at 19th nationally 1. That is praise for the Bruins, but it also warns that UCLA's 4-0 record and gaudy scoring margins came against a much softer path. FPI agrees with SP+ and Elo that Oregon is the better team, but it also flags that UCLA is not a paper tiger — its defensive efficiency number is genuinely elite-grade 1. The gap matters most in the red zone and on early downs. FPI's efficiency components say Oregon's offense is slightly more efficient overall than UCLA's, but UCLA's defense is nearly as efficient as Oregon's defense. That is a warning sign for a game where Oregon's backup quarterback will be asked to move the chains against a defense that ranks in the top decile nationally in preventing points per opportunity 1. 06 SRS RATINGS The Simple Rating System is a pure points-based strength metric adjusted for schedule strength. Oregon sits at 16.2, UCLA at 16.9 — the fourth independent power number in this feed, and it is the one outlier 1. TEAM SRS Oregon 16.2 UCLA 16.9 This is worth stopping on: SP+, FPI and Elo all favor Oregon by somewhere between 7.8 and 13.7 points, but SRS says UCLA has actually been the slightly better team through four games. The reason is in the math: UCLA has outscored opponents by an average of 26 points while Oregon's margin sits at 24.25, and UCLA's schedule adjustment is much weaker, which normally would drag the Bruins down — yet it still comes out ahead 1. What do we do with the disagreement? SRS is the only system that does not use opponent-adjusted efficiency or preseason componentry; it is the most reactive and the least predictive. In this specific game, though, it aligns with a real scouting concern: Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 8 of 14
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UCLA has beaten the teams on its schedule the way a good team should, while Oregon has one loss and a defense that has been gouged on the ground by less physical offenses. The ratings genuinely disagree about UCLA, and that disagreement alone justifies some caution before laying double digits 1. 07 ADVANCED TEAM STATS This section converts the raw efficiency numbers to national percentiles against all FBS teams — the outer ring of the Efficiency Profile is always the better number, regardless of whether the raw stat runs high or low 1. OFFENSIVE METRIC OREGON UCLA PPA per play 0.328 (92nd pct) 0.287 (83rd pct) Success rate 47.8% (72nd pct) 49.4% (83rd pct) Explosiveness 1.414 (94th pct) 1.253 (54th pct) Line yards 3.36 (76th pct) 3.97 (99th pct) Points per scoring opportunity 5.03 (94th pct) 4.34 (70th pct) DEFENSIVE METRIC OREGON UCLA PPA per play allowed -0.003 (66th pct) -0.127 (96th pct) Success rate allowed 37.3% (67th pct) 32.7% (92nd pct) Explosiveness allowed 1.239 (44th pct) 1.347 (18th pct) Line yards allowed 2.68 (67th pct) 2.36 (89th pct) Havoc 0.157 (46th pct) 0.185 (78th pct) These two teams are built in mirror image. UCLA's offense is not explosive — 54th percentile — but it is ruthlessly efficient and unstoppable between the tackles, sitting in the 99th percentile in line yards. Oregon's defense is fine against the run but hardly dominant, ranking 67th percentile in line yards allowed. That is the collision at the center of this game 1. On the other side, Oregon's offense is the explosive unit — 94th percentile — while UCLA's defense is elite at preventing efficiency but ranks just 18th percentile nationally at preventing explosive plays. That is the crack Dylan Raiola can exploit. The Efficiency Profile says UCLA's defense is better than Oregon's defense overall, but it can be hit over the top, and Oregon has the receivers to do it 1. 08 RETURNING PRODUCTION Returning production measures how much of last season's total PPA, and its component parts, came back to each roster. It is a continuity proxy, not a quality ranking 1. TEAM TOTAL PPA RETURNED PASSING RUSHING RECEIVING USAGE RETURNED Oregon 75.3% 94.5% 68.3% 63.5% 67.0% UCLA 57.0% 54.7% 86.1% 33.8% 63.5% Oregon returned almost its entire passing game, 94.5% of last year's passing PPA, but that continuity now runs througha backup quarterback in Dylan Raiola 1. UCLA went the opposite direction: it returned just 57% of total production, only 54.7% of passing production, but a massive 86.1% of its rushing production. The Bruins are a returning-run-game team, which explains why they have leaned so heavily into the ground attack this season 1. This matters for the matchup's texture. UCLA's rushing continuity means its offensive line and backs have chemistry that survives opponent adjustments. Oregon's passing continuity is still valuable because Raiola has been in the system since January, but it is not the same as having the opening-day starter. The Roster Continuity & Talent visual shows Oregon with more overall production returning, but UCLA's returning production is concentrated in exactly the area that attacks Oregon's weakness 1. 09 TEAM TALENT The 247 Sports composite talent score measures the recruiting base underneath the roster. Oregon's 984.33 is an elite national number; UCLA's 774.45 is solid but a clear tier below 1. TEAM TALENT COMPOSITE Oregon 984.33 Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 9 of 14
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g UCLA 774.45 That is a 210-point gap, and it is the single biggest reason the market opened Oregon at roughly double digits rather than a field goal. The Roster Continuity & Talent visual puts this in harsh perspective: Oregon has both more returning production and dramatically more blue-chip talent 1. But talent gaps do not always cash spreads in run-heavy, clock-chewing games. UCLA's roster is not bereft — it added high- impact transfers including Wayne Knight, Sammy Omosigho, Aidan Mizell and others — and it has been developed well enough to rank 21st nationally 1. Oregon's talent edge matters most if the game turns into a track meet; UCLA's entire identity is designed to make sure it does not. . Oregon Ducks Injury Updates 10 OREGON DUCKS INJURY UPDATES Medical items only, drawn from two separate inputs and kept in clearly labeled groups. Live web research: No data was available for this input. Injury feed: The stored injury feed lists quarterback Dante Moore as unlikely to play with a concussion, offensive lineman Trent Ferguson as out for the season with a knee injury, and defensive back Aaron Flowers as injured with his status for UCLA unclear 2. The same feed flags that wide receiver Jeremiah McClellan is out with a broken foot, running back Simeon Price remains out, linebacker Brayden Platt is out, and wide receiver Jack Ressler is also listed out for Saturday 2. Multiple previously injured players — including defensive linemen A'Mauri Washington and Anthony Jones, running back Da'Jaun Riggs, wide receiver Dakorien Moore, offensive linemen Dave Iuli, Douglas Utu and Gernorris Wilson, wide receiver Evan Stewart, and defensive back Trey McNutt — are listed as available/full participants 2. The medical headline is the quarterback: Moore's concussion has already cost him one game, and the Ducks have ruled him out again with an "abundance of caution" approach 23. Offensive lineman Trent Ferguson's season-ending knee injury removes a veteran body from the front, though he was not part of the immediate rotation by this point 2. The defensive concern is Aaron Flowers, a starter at safety, who left the USC game and has not been officially cleared 27. Oregon can survive Moore's absence better than it can survive losing another defensive starter against a run-first offense that wants to shorten the game 2. 11 UCLA BRUINS INJURY UPDATES Medical items only, structured the same way with two separate inputs. Live web research: No data was available for this input. Injury feed: The stored injury feed lists wide receiver Sahir West as questionable after being described as "banged up" during Wednesday's practice viewing period 225. The official UCLA game previews published earlier in the week did not list any injuries or availability designations 24. A media availability session with Dean Kennedy produced no injury details 26. West is a depth receiver, not a central piece of UCLA's run-first attack, so his questionable status is unlikely to move the game plan 2. The more notable absence from the injury report is what is not on it: UCLA has not disclosed any significant injuries to its core rotation, meaning the Bruins should arrive at Autzen as healthy as they have been all season 224. 12 KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS The live-web bucket returned no dedicated matchup notes, so these battles are defined by the Player PPA and advanced numbers that are actually in the data 1. UCLA RB Wayne Knight vs. Oregon's front seven. Knight has been the most productive player in this game, with 41.4 total PPA and 37.4 rushing PPA at an average of 0.713 per play 1. UCLA runs on 59.2% of its snaps and sits in the 99th percentile nationally in line yards 1. Oregon's defense has allowed 0.077 EPA per rushing play in adjusted metrics, and its defensive line yards allowed sits in just the 67th percentile 1. With linebacker Brayden Platt out, the Ducks' run fits are thinner than usual 2. This is the game's foundational matchup: if Knight is hitting the second level, UCLA controls the clock and Oregon's explosive offense watches from the sideline. Oregon WR Evan Stewart vs. UCLA's secondary. Stewart has 18.0 total PPA with an average of 0.581 per play and a 1.035 PPA on third down 1. UCLA's defense is elite at preventing efficiency but sits in just the 18th percentile nationally in explosiveness allowed, and Oregon's offense ranks 94th percentile in explosiveness 1. Dylan Raiola's small sample isadvertised by a 2.365 PPA on third down — if he can connect with Stewart on drive-extending downfield shots, Oregon can hit the explosive plays UCLA's defense has not seen all season 1. Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 10 of 14
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UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava vs. Oregon's pass defense. Nico has 19.1 total PPA, but almost all of his positive work comes on passing downs (0.501 PPA) 1. Oregon's pass defense has allowed 0.097 EPA per play and has been vulnerable when opponents get into obvious passing situations 1. The catch is that UCLA does not want Nico to beat Oregon; it wants Wayne Knight to make third downs short enough that Nico only has to manage manageable throws. If Oregon's defense can force second-and-long and third-and-long, Nico's modest 0.146 average PPA becomes a liability 1. 13 OREGON DUCKS ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster news, starting with the verified transfer-portal ledger before any researched news item. Verified transfer portal — incoming: Oregon added quarterback Dylan Raiola (4-star, 0.94) from Nebraska, safety Koi Perich ((4-star, 0.95) from Minnesota, defensive lineman D'Antre Robinson (4-star, 0.93) from North Carolina, running back Simeon Price(3-star, 0.88) from Colorado, wide receiver Iverson Hooks(3-star, 0.88) from UAB, cornerback Aaron Scott Jr.(3-star, 0.88) from Ohio State, tight end Andrew Olesh(3-star, 0.87) from Penn State, safety Carl Williams IV(3-star, 0.87) from Baylor, defensive lineman Jerome Simmons(3-star, 0.86) from UL Monroe, offensive tackle Michael Bennett III(3-star, 0.86) from Yale, edge Markus Dixon(3-star, 0.85) from Clemson, edge Bleu Dantzler(3-star, 0.85) from Oregon State, and kicker Keaton Emmett from Nevada 1. Verified transfer portal — outgoing: Oregon lost a wave of production, including defensive linemen Tionne Gray(to Notre Dame, 4-star), and Terrance Green(to Alabama, 4-star),), edge Blake Purchase(to Ole Miss, 4-star),), quarterback Bryson Beaver(to Georgia, 4-star),), tight end Roger Saleapaga II(to BYU, 4-star),), safeties Kingston Lopa(to Cal, 4-star) and Jericho Johnson(to Cal, 4-star),), plus roughly two dozen more three-star departures spread across the offensive line, receiver, running back and defensive back rooms 1. Researched news: No additional non-injury roster updates were returned in the live-web bucketfor this section. . The transfer ledger, though, explains the roster construction: Oregon used the portal to replace departing depth with immediate Big Ten contributors, most notably Raiola at quarterback 1. The most game-relevant non-injury roster fact is the quarterback room itself: Raiola was already on campus before spring ball, so the offense does not have to simplify its installation for a midseason emergency 312. 14 UCLA BRUINS ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster news, structured the same way with the verified transfer-portal ledger first, then researched newso Verified transfer portal — incoming: UCLA was one of the most aggressive portal shoppers in the country, adding 30 scholarship players. The headliners are linebacker Sammy Omosigho(4-star, 0.91) from Oklahoma, wide receiver Aidan Mizell(4- star, 0.90)from Florida, plus a James Madison pipeline: edge Sahir West, edge Aiden Gobaira, interior offensive lineman Riley Robell, tight end Josh Phifer, running back Wayne Knight, wide receiver Landon Ellis, cornerback DJ Barksdale, interior offensive lineman Carter Sweazie, and linebacker Drew Spinogatti( all 3-star,] with ratings between0.85-0.88[). Other notable additions include safety Tao Johnson(3-star, 0.87)from Utah, edge Ryan McCulloch(3-star, 0.86)from Cal, defensive linemen Amier Washington, Maxwell Roy,Tyson Ford, cornerbacks Jhase McMillan,Dante Lovett, safeties Malik Hartford,Ta'Shawn James, wide receivers Brian Rowe Jr., Leland Smith, Marcus Harris, running backs Dylan Lee and more 1. Verified transfer portal — outgoing: UCLA also churned, with the most notable losses being edge Anthony Jones(to Nebraska),, defensive lineman Siale Taupaki(to Penn State),), cornerback Andre Jordan Jr.(to Auburn),, cornerback Kanye Clark(to Florida)),and a long tail of three-star receivers, defensive backs and offensive linemen 1. Several former Bruins left with no listed destination, including safety Scooter Jackson, cornerback Jamier Johnson, safety Bryon Threats, and others 1. Researched news: No additional non-injury roster updates were returned in the live-web bucketfor this section. The roster story here is obvious: UCLA remade its roster through the transfer portal, particularly on defense and at running back. Wayne Knight, the leading PPA producer in this matchup, arrived from James Madison, and the Bruins' defensive identity is built around portal additions like Omosigho at linebacker and a deep edge rotation 1. This is not a traditional UCLA roster — it is a veteran-laden, transfer-built team that has gelled quickly enough to enter Autzen at 4-0 20. 15 OREGON DUCKS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Practice participation, scrimmage results and camp reporting from the live-web research bucket, which had no scrimmage results published in the windowo Live web research: Dante Moore was officially ruled out for UCLA, with Dylan Raiola making his first Oregon start 3610. Dan Lanning said Moore practiced in a helmet and pads and throwing, but the team is taking an "abundance of caution" approach 41. The Big Ten availability report confirmed Moore out, along with Jeremiah McClellan, Simeon Price, Brayden Platt, Trent Ferguson Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 11 of 14
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and Jack Ressler 6. Freshman wide receiver Jalen Lott has been cleared for his collegiate debut after returning from hand surgery, and tight end Jamari Johnson used the bye week to get healthier after his breakout USC game 12. Safety Aaron Flowers was a new addition to the injury report and could miss Saturday, per a "what we're hearing" report 8. Pete Thamel reported there was "widespread expectation" Raiola would start, and that Oregon was easing Moore back gradually 16. Receiver Evan Stewart said it was "amazing" to see a healthy, smiling Moore back at practice 29. A'Mauri Washington said Oregon's ability to beat UCLA comes down to stopping the run: "If we don't stop the run, these dudes will continue running the ball on us" 28. UCLA coach Bob Chesney said Oregon's offense won't change with Raiola, noting the Ducks use motion to gather information before the snap 19. The practice week was defined by clarity at the most important position: Raiola took first-team preparation reps and the coaches repeated that he prepares every week like the starter 1241. Moore's return to practice in pads is an encouraging long-term sign, but it does not help Saturday. The offensive skill group is healthier than it was two weeks ago — Lott debuts, Johnson is healthier — but the defense is shakier, with Flowers' status unresolved against a run game that will test Oregon's second level 812. No scrimmage results were published in the window, and none were expected at this point in the season 1. 16 UCLA BRUINS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES No data was available for this sectiono 17 OREGON DUCKS VS UCLA BRUINS MEDIA MATCHUP ANALYSIS No data was available for this sectiono 18 GAME CONDITIONSAND BETTING CONTEXT This section coversthe forecast, the venue, each team's against-the-spread record and the market's pregame numbers, per the Game Conditions visualo Conditions: Fair weather, 58.1°F, humidity 49%, precipitation 0.0, snow 0.0, wind 5.2 mph from 25°, and the game is not indoors 1. Autzen Stadium is open-air artificial turf, capacity 54,000, elevation 127 meters 1. That is essentially neutral weather — no wind to suppress downfield passing, no rain to muddy the run game, no heat to drain the clock-chewing visitor. A light 5 mph breeze will not bother either offense, and Oregon's explosive passing game should have full operating conditions 1. Betting context: Oregon is 2-2 against the spread this season, averaging a -3.5 cover margin, while UCLA is 4-0 ATS with an average cover margin of +18.0 1. The market has Oregon as an 11.5-point favorite with a 59.25 total, and a pregame home win probability of 78.6% 145. That ATS split is the loudest betting story in this game. Oregon has not been covering double-digit spreads, and UCLA has crushed every number it has faced. The market's 11.5 line is nearly identical to the ratings consensus of 11.36, meaning the numbers and the market mostly agree — but the market is asking Oregon to win by a margin its own season has not produced against better competition 1. The fair, calm conditions remove weather as a compression variable, so the total will be decided by tempo: UCLA wants to shrink the game, Oregon wants to stretch it 1. 19 FINAL PREDICTION Oregon wins, 34-24. The statistical baseline — a 50-50 blend of the power-rating consensus (11.22{and the market line (11.5} — lands at a consensus margin of 11.36 points, with a baseline score of Oregon 37, UCLA 26 1. I am adjusting that down to exactly ten points. The reasons are concrete: Oregon's starting quarterback, Dante Moore, is out with a concussion, removing the offense's highest-PPA player from the game 13; UCLA's run game is the 99th-percentile line-yards unit in the country against an Oregon defense that has been middling against the run and loses linebacker Brayden Platt 12; and UCLA's defense is the best adjusted unit in this game, ranking 96th percentile in PPA per play allowed 1. Those three factors do not flip the game — Oregon's talent edge, home field and explosive passing advantage are too large — but they close the gap from double-digit-plus to a single-possession-plus margin. The market has Oregon -11.5 and the total at 59.25 145. Since my projection is Oregon by10, the play is UCLA +11.5 — the underdog covers a number that the favorite's own season has not consistently covered. On the total, my projected 58 points is just under the number, so the play is Under 59.25. Oregon's offense will hit its explosive plays — UCLA's defensive explosiveness percentile is terrible — but UCLA's run game will bleed clock and keep the possession count down, which suppresses the total even in fair weather 1. The decisive reasons are threefold. First, UCLA's Wayne Knight-led run game is the strongest unit-vs-unit mismatch in the game, and it directly attacks Oregon's thinnest defensive area 12. Second, Oregon's offensive ceiling drops without Moore; Raiola is a Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 12 of 14
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capable backup with a huge third-down PPA sample, but the sample is small and came largely in relief against USC 13. Third, UCLA has already proven it covers big numbers: 4-0 ATS with an average cover margin of +18, while Oregon is just 2-2 ATS with a negative average cover margin 1. The better team is still Oregon. The sharper side is still UCLA with the points. THE VERDICT · The projected final score, win probability, the model's spread set against the market and the pick that comparison implies — the report's bottom line in one card. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. Oregon QB Moore ruled out for UCLA game, Raiola to get start - ESPN (ESPN) https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50129251/oregon-qb-moore-ruled- ucla-game-raiola-start 4. Oregon Ducks injury report vs. UCLA: Big Ten availability update https://duckswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/ducks/football/2026/10/07/oregon- ducks-ucla-big-ten-availability-report-wednesday/92144355007/ 5. Will Oregon QB Dante Moore play against UCLA? See the injury report - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/oregon-qb-dante-moore-play-003836263.html 6. Oregon Ducks QB Dante Moore’s status for Saturday revealed (The Oregonian/OregonLive) https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2026/10/oregon-ducks-qb-dante-moores-status-for- saturday-revealed.html 7. Oregon Ducks Football Injury Report 2026 | The Quack Report (The Quack Report) https://thequackreport.com/injuries/ 8. What we're hearing on Oregon injuries ahead of UCLA - Yahoo Sports (Yahoo Sports) https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/were-hearing-oregon-injuries-ahead-142630663.html 9. UCLA football injury report: Tao Johnson questionable for Oregon game https://247sports.com/college/usc/article/ucla-football-injury-report-tao-johnson- questionable-for-oregon-game-290979707/ 10. Oregons' Dylan Raiola To Make First Start For Ducks Against No. 21 UCLA | FOX Sports https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-football/qb-raiola-to-start-with-moore-ruled- out-of-no-13-oregons-game-against-no-21-ucla 11. Dante Moore injury update: Oregon QB currently unlikely to play Saturday vs. UCLA - CBS Sports (CBS Sports) https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/dante-moore-injury-explaining-the- ncaas-concussion-protocol-and-if-oregon-qb-can-play-vs-ucla/ 12. Raiola set to start at QB for No. 13 Ducks against No. 21 UCLA | The Bulletin (The Bulletin) https://bendbulletin.com/2026/10/08/raiola-set-to-start-at-qb-for-no-13-ducks-against- no-21-ucla/ 27. Lanning warns of UCLA's elite rushing attack https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2026/10/dan-lanning-praises-uclas-potent- run-game-dynamic-linebackers-ahead-of-ranked-matchup.html 28. Oregon seeks to avoid upset against run-heavy UCLA Saturday (The Oregonian/OregonLive) https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2026/10/is-uclas-rushing-attack-good- enough-to-pull-off-an-upset-over-oregon-at-autzen.html 29. UCLA Has a Plan to Test Oregon Quarterbacks Dante Moore and Dylan Raiola (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/oregon/football/ucla-bob-chesney-oregon- quarterbacks-dante-moore-dylan-raiola-plan-test 30. What should the Oregon Ducks expect from the UCLA Bruins' defense? - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/oregon-ducks-expect-ucla-bruins- 182716628.html 31. Scouting Report: UCLA football vs. Oregon - Daily Bruin https://dailybruin.com/2026/10/08/scouting-report-ucla-football-vs-oregon-3 32. Previewing and predicting Oregon's ranked matchup with UCLA | Autzen Audibles https://247sports.com/college/oregon/article/-previewing-and-predicting- oregons-ranked-matchup-with-ucla-autzen-audibles-290997349/ 33. Can Dylan Raiola step up for Oregon against UCLA? https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2026/10/will-qb-dante-moores-absence-hurt- no-13-oregon-against-no-21-ucla.html 34. 5 X-Factors for Oregon's big test vs. UCLA as the Ducks navigate a shorthanded roster https://autzenzoo.com/5-x-factors-for-oregon-s-big-test-vs-ucla-as-the-ducks- navigate-a-shorthanded-roster 35. Tale of the Tape for No. 13 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 21 UCLA Bruins - WCCPress https://wccpress.com/tale-of-the-tape-for-no-13-oregon-ducks-vs-no-21-ucla- bruins 36. Dylan Raiola ready to lead Oregon against UCLA https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2026/10/a-body-transformation-and-sharp- mind-have-dylan-raiola-ready-for-his-first-oregon-start.html 37. Ducks Host Bruins In Top-25 Battle - University of Oregon Athletics Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 13 of 14
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13. Dan Lanning provides encouraging health update on Dante Moore ahead of Oregon- UCLA (OregonLive) https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2026/10/dan-lanning-provides-encouraging-health- update-on-dante-moore-ahead-of-oregon-ucla.html 14. Dante Moore injury update: Oregon QB takes major step before UCLA showdown (Sporting News) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/oregon/news/dante-moore-injury- update-oregon-qb-takes-major-step-ucla-showdown/c87f5dda42e453f33b2906f4 15. Oregon players thrilled to see Dante Moore back at practice (OregonLive) https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2026/10/oregon-ducks-players-excited-to-see-qb- dante-moore-practicing-believe-in-dylan-raiola.html 16. Pete Thamel Offers Insight Into Oregon’s Plan for Dante Moore’s Return (Sports Illustrated - Oregon) https://www.si.com/college/oregon/football/pete-thamel-offers-insight-oregon-ducks- plan-dante-moore-return 17. Dan Lanning Drops Dante Moore Injury Update Ahead of UCLA (Sports Illustrated - Oregon) https://www.si.com/college/oregon/football/dan-lanning-dante-moore-injury-update- ucla-bruins-oregon-ducks 18. What we know on Dante Moore's recovery as Oregon preps for UCLA (247Sports) https://247sports.com/college/oregon/article/what-we-know-on-dante-moores- recovery-as-oregon-preps-for-ucla-autzen-audibles-podcast-290949100/ 19. No. 21 Bruins Getting Ready for Oregon - UCLA Bruins (UCLA Bruins Athletics) https://uclabruins.com/news/2026/10/7/no-21-bruins-getting-ready-for-oregon 20. No. 21 UCLA Readies for Ranked Matchup at No. 13 Oregon Saturday - UCLA Bruins https://uclabruins.com/news/2026/10/6/no-21-ucla-readies-for-ranked-matchup-at-no- 13-oregon-saturday 21. Study hard! UCLA prepping for both Oregon quarterbacks – Press Enterprise https://www.pressenterprise.com/2026/10/06/study-hard-ucla-prepping-for-both- oregon-quarterbacks/ 22. Ex-Bruin quarterback Dante Moore ruled out for Week 6 against UCLA https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/sports/college/ucla/football/2026/10/08/ex- bruin-quarterback-dante-moore-ruled-out-for-week-6-against-ucla-big-ten-college- football/92146025007/ 23. Oregon availability report: Dante Moore's status updated vs. UCLA - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/oregon-availability-report-dante-moores- 000159909.html 24. No. 21 UCLA Readies for Ranked Matchup at No. 13 Oregon Saturday (UCLA Bruins Official Site) https://uclabruins.com/news/2026/10/06/no-21-ucla-readies-for-ranked-matchup-at-no- 13-oregon-saturday 25. UCLA football practice observations: Sahir West makes his presence felt (247Sports) https://247sports.com/college/ucla/article/ucla-football-practice-observations-sahir- west-makes-his-presence-felt-290970317/ 26. UCLA Football Media Availability - Dean Kennedy (Oct. 7, 2026) (UCLA Bruins Official Site) https://uclabruins.com/news/2026/10/7/ucla-football-media-availability-dean-kennedy- oct-7-2026 https://goducks.com/news/2026/10/6/football-ducks-host-bruins-in-top-25-battle 38. Oregon injuries could force Dan Lanning to address the Ducks’ biggest defensive issue https://autzenzoo.com/oregon-injuries-could-force-dan-lanning-to-address-the- ducks-biggest-defensive-issue 39. Oregon Football: Dylan Raiola to start over Dante Moore vs. UCLA https://collegesportswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/college- football/2026/10/08/oregon-football-dylan-raiola-dante-moore-ucla- bruins/92151567007/ 40. UCLA Week 6 Injury Report: Latest Updates, Status, Replacement Options https://www.si.com/college/ucla/bruins-week-6-injury-report-latest-updates- status-replacement-options 41. Lanning: Moore practiced in helmet and pads; Raiola keeps preparing as the guy (Yahoo Sports) https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/everything-dan-lanning-said-ahead- 025157422.html 42. UCLA coaching staff all too familiar with Oregon’s elite offense – Press Enterprise https://www.pressenterprise.com/2026/10/07/ucla-coaching-staff-all-too-familiar- with-oregons-elite-offense/ 43. UCLA's Bob Chesney previews road matchup against Oregon at Autzen Stadium https://247sports.com/college/oregon/longformarticle/uclas-bob-chesney- previews-road-matchup-against-oregon-at-autzen-stadium-290950692/ 44. Bob Chesney urges surging UCLA to ignore hype, focus on Oregon - Los Angeles Times https://www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/story/2026-10-06/bob-chesney-urges- surging-ucla-to-ignore-hype-focus-on-oregon 45. No. 13 Oregon vs. No. 21 UCLA early predictions: Ducks favored by 11.5 as Dante Moore remains in concussion protocol - oregonlive.com https://www.oregonlive.com/betting/2026/10/no-13-oregon-vs-no-21-ucla-early- predictions-ducks-favored-by-115-as-dante-moore-remains-in-concussion- protocol.html 46. Greg McElroy Picks UCLA vs. Oregon Winner With Dante Moore's Status Unclear https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/greg-mcelroy-predicts-ucla-vs- oregon-winner-with-dante-moore-status-unclear 47. What Oregon's Betting Odds vs. UCLA Mean for the Ducks https://www.si.com/college/oregon/football/oregon-ducks-betting-odds-ucla- bruins-mean 48. Oregon vs. UCLA prediction, pick, odds, spread - CBS Sports https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/oregon-ucla-prediction-picks- odds-spread-where-to-watch-live/ 49. UCLA vs Oregon Prediction: Are the Bruins Ready For This? https://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/article317549331.html 50. Facts and factors: No. 21 UCLA at No. 13 Oregon, Week 6 - On3 https://www.on3.com/sites/bruin-report-online/news/facts-and-factors-no-21- ucla-at-no-13-oregon-week-6/ 51. No. 21 UCLA vs. No. 13 Oregon Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/no-21-ucla-vs-no-210043119.html Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 14 of 14
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