Texas vs Ohio State
Game played Sep 12, 2026 · Published September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM · 12 pages
Projected score, total and win probability for Texas vs Ohio State, priced against the betting line — with injuries, form and the key statistical mismatches.
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A F P L N A C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L M A T C H U P R E P O R T V S Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D S E P T E M B E R 1 2 , 2 0 2 6 0 9 : 5 2 A M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Matchup Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 SP Ratings 04 ELO Ratings 05 FPI Ratings 06 SRS Ratings 07 Advanced Team Stats 08 Returning Production 09 Team Talent 10 Team PPA 11 Player PPA 12 Team Season Stats 13 Adjusted Team Metrics 14 Texas Longhorns Injury Updates 15 Ohio State Buckeyes Injury Updates 16 Key Player Matchups 17 Texas Longhorns Roster Updates 18 Ohio State Buckeyes Roster Updates 19 Texas Longhorns Practice and Scrimmage Updates 20 Ohio State Buckeyes Practice and Scrimmage Updates 21 Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes Media Matchup Analysis 22 Game Conditions and Betting Context 23 Final Prediction
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01 MATCHUP OVERVIEW This is a Week 2 top-of-the-sport collision at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, with the No. 4 Texas Longhorns hosting the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes on ABC. Texas is 1-0 after a 59-7 dismantling of Texas State; Ohio State is 1-0 after a 56-3 erasure of Ball State. Both programs just spent a Saturday feasting on overmatched openers, and now they walk into the first game that will actually tell us something. The series record sits at Ohio State 3, Texas 2. The Longhorns won 25-22 at Ohio Stadium in 2005, the Buckeyes answered 24-7 in Austin in 2006, Texas took a 24-21 postseason decision in January 2009, Ohio State won 28-14 at AT&T Stadium in the 2024 playoff, and Ohio State won again 14-7 in Columbus on August 30, 2025. The Buckeyes have taken the last two meetings. This is the first time Ohio State has come back to Austin since that 2006 blowout. What is at stake is the early shape of a playoff résumé and, for Texas, a chance to snap a two-game losing streak against a program that has owned the recent history. A 100,119-seat night in Austin on network television is not a stealthy nonconference date. It is a measuring stick, and both sides treated Week 1 like a dress rehearsal they could not actually use. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like-for-like from one game to the next. GAME CONDITIONS · The forecast and the ground it will be played on: temperature, wind and precipitation beside the stadium's surface, roof, capacity and elevation. POWER RATING DASHBOARD · SP+, FPI and Elo side by side. SP+ and FPI are points-above-average ratings; the SP+ defensive rating counts down, so a lower bar is the better defense. Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 2 of 12
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EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always the better number regardless of which way the raw stat runs. Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 3 of 12
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MISMATCH MATRIX · Each offense measured directly against the defense it will face. Bars show the percentile gap; the longer the bar, the wider that specific unit-vs-unit edge. SEASON FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added. This is where you see a team trending up or falling apart, which season averages hide. Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 4 of 12
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TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA. Cross-reference this against the injury and roster sections. ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT · How much production each team returned from last season, alongside the recruiting talent composite. Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 5 of 12
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PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM · What each rating system independently projects, plus the market line and the blended consensus used as the model's anchor. WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · The consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. The shaded area on each side is that team's win probability. 03 SP RATINGS SP+ is a tempo-adjusted, opponent-adjusted points-above-average rating; the defensive number runs the other way — lower is better. TEAM OVERALL OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TEAMS Texas 25.4 39.2 14.2 0.4 Ohio State 30.0 40.0 10.1 0.1 Ohio State holds the overall edge, 30.0 to 25.4, which is a 4.6-point gap before home-field is applied. The offensive ratings are nearly identical — 40.0 for the Buckeyes, 39.2 for the Longhorns — so the separation lives on the other side of the ball. Ohio State's 10.1 defensive rating is meaningfully stingier than Texas' 14.2, and that is the number that should haunt Steve Sarkisian's Saturday night. Special teams barely register for either club, with Texas a hair ahead at 0.4 to 0.1. 1 That defensive gap is the first real warning for anyone leaning on the home favorite. Two offenses sitting in the high 30s against a national average of about 25.9 means both units can score on most of the country. They are not playing most of the country. They are playing each other, and the Buckeyes' defensive SP+ says they take points off the board more reliably than Texas does. The Power Rating Dashboard will show Ohio State as the stronger side on SP+ even after you hand Texas the building; that is not noise, it is the cleanest available statement of which roster is built to survive a street fight. 04 ELO RATINGS Elo is a head-to-head power rating that moves only when you beat or lose to someone, so the gap is a statement about recent results against quality, not a snapshot of scheme. Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 6 of 12
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Texas sits at 1913. Ohio State sits at 1986. That is a 73-point Elo hole for the home team, which converts — at 25 Elo points per point of margin — to Ohio State being roughly three points better on a neutral field. Fold in the 2.4-point home-field bump assigned in the baseline and Elo still has this game inside a field goal, with a slight lean to the visitors. 1 Elo is the stubborn one. It does not care that Texas just hung 59 on Texas State or that DKR will be loud. It cares that Ohio State has been collecting the results that move a power rating, including the 14-7 win over these same Longhorns a year ago in Columbus. A 73-point gap is not a mismatch, but it is also not a coin flip. It says the Buckeyes have been the better program in the games that count, and Texas has to prove otherwise in front of 100,000 of its own. 05 FPI RATINGS FPI is ESPN's points-above-average rating against an average opponent; the efficiency percentiles sitting underneath it tell you where that value actually comes from. TEAM FPI OVERALL EFF. OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TEAMS Texas 30.264 96.618 89.422 90.113 89.695 Ohio State 29.990 89.189 87.579 91.733 20.960 FPI is the one system that prefers Texas, 30.264 to 29.990 — a rounding error in a vacuum, a real disagreement with SP+ and Elo in this room. Texas also holds a massive special-teams efficiency edge (89.7 to 21.0) and a better overall efficiency percentile (96.6 to 89.2). Ohio State still wins the defensive efficiency comparison, 91.7 to 90.1. Texas' remaining strength of schedule ranks second nationally; Ohio State's ranks 12th. 1 This is the rating that gives the Longhorns their statistical case. FPI is looking at a slightly more complete Texas roster — especially on special teams, where Ohio State is a bottom-quartile operation — and at a Longhorns schedule that will be a meat grinder from here. If you believe the hidden yards and the kicking game will matter in a one-score night, FPI is your friend. If you believe the game will be decided by which defense can take a drive away, you are back in SP+ country with the Buckeyes. 06 SRS RATINGS No data was available for that section. 07 ADVANCED TEAM STATS These are play-by-play efficiency numbers from Week 1, placed in national percentile context so a raw rate actually means something. METRIC TEXAS (RAW / PCT) OHIO STATE (RAW / PCT) Off. PPA/play 0.459 / 78.3 0.667 / 96.4 Off. Success Rate 50.0% / 60.1 56.2% / 80.4 Off. Explosiveness 1.580 / 93.5 1.449 / 81.2 Off. Line Yards 2.53 / 18.8 3.32 / 60.9 Off. Pts/Opportunity 5.78 / 84.1 7.00 / 95.7 Def. PPA/play 0.139 / 34.1 -0.242 / 90.6 Def. Success Rate 41.1% / 35.5 21.0% / 94.2 Def. Explosiveness 1.127 / 65.2 1.305 / 37.0 Def. Line Yards 2.63 / 55.1 1.20 / 96.4 Def. Havoc 20.5% / 65.9 22.6% / 76.1 Ohio State was the more efficient team on both sides of the ball against a cupcake. The Buckeyes' 0.667 offensive PPA per play (96th percentile) and 56% success rate dwarf Texas' 0.459 and 50%, and the defensive gap is uglier: Ohio State allowed -0.242 PPA and a 21% success rate (90th and 94th percentile), while Texas allowed 0.139 PPA and 41% success (34th and 36th). Ohio State's defensive line yards of 1.20 sit in the 96th percentile. Texas' offensive line yards of 2.53 sit in the 18th percentile — against Texas State. 1 That last pairing is the one that should keep people honest. The Longhorns can explode — 93rd-percentile explosiveness, 0.913 PPA per passing play, 5.78 points per scoring opportunity — but they could not move the line of scrimmage against a Sun Belt front. Ohio State stuffed 32% of opponent runs and surrendered 1.20 line yards. The Mismatch Matrix will light up in orange on that axis, and it will not be for the home team. Texas' path is the chunk play: passing-downs PPA of 0.708 and passing explosiveness of 2.25. If Arch Manning is forced into a track meet between the tackles, this night gets long in a hurry. The other side of the Matrix is almost as lopsided. Ohio State's offense posted 7.00 points per opportunity, 3.32 line yards, and 0.459 rushing PPA. Texas' defense allowed 0.139 PPA, a 41% success rate, and 2.63 line yards — again, against Texas State. The Longhorns did finish drives (1.75 points allowed per scoring opportunity, only four opponent opportunities) and they generated a 20.5% havoc rate, so the chaos element is real. Chaos is not a plan against a 96th-percentile offensive PPA unit. Ohio State will try to live in standard downs, where its 0.696 PPA and 65% success rate were elite; Texas' defense was actually better on standard downs (0.000 PPA allowed) than on passing downs (0.681). The chess match is whether Will Muschamp can keep Julian Sayin in obvious passing situations without selling out against Jeremiah Smith. 08 RETURNING PRODUCTION Returning production measures how much of last season's predicted points added walked back through the door, by unit. Texas returned 72.1% of last year's PPA (187.5 total), including 85.4% of passing PPA and an inflated 126.4% of rushing PPA, on 58% usage. Ohio State returned 68.3% of PPA but a much larger pile of it — 355.9 total — including 94.0% of passing PPA, on 70.9% usage. The Buckeyes brought back nearly all of the quarterback production and about half the receiving production; Texas brought back the passer and had to rebuild the skill talent around him. 1 The Roster Continuity & Talent chart will show two different kinds of continuity. Ohio State returned the engine — the passing PPA, the usage, the volume. Texas returned a higher percentage of a smaller pie and then went shopping in the portal to replace the receivers and backs who left. That is why Cam Coleman and Hollywood Smothers matter as more than depth-chart trivia: the Longhorns' 55% returning receiving PPA is a hole they tried to fill with five-stars, not with redshirts. Ohio State's 50.3% returning receiving PPA looks similar on a percentage basis, but Jeremiah Smith is the 16.2-PPA exception that makes the percentage lie. 09 TEAM TALENT The 247Sports composite talent score is the recruiting base sitting under the roster — the raw material, not the production. Texas 985.17. Ohio State 964.27. The Longhorns have the more decorated roster on paper, which tracks with a program that has been stacking classes in the SEC era and then topping them off with portal additions. 1 Talent composites do not sack the quarterback, but they do explain why Texas can absorb a portal exodus and still look like a top-five team. A 21-point composite edge is not decisive in a one-game sample — Ohio State has been winning these fights for a decade with slightly less glitter — but it is the reason the Longhorns' FPI likes them more than their SP+ does. When the recruiting base is this close to the ceiling, the variance on a given Saturday lives in the trenches and the quarterback, not in whether the two-deep can play. Both of these two-deeps can play. Texas just paid more to get there. Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 7 of 12
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10 TEAM PPA Team PPA is predicted points added per play, split by offense and defense, and the Week 1 reading is the only data point on the Season Form Trend. Texas against Texas State: offensive PPA 0.46 (passing 0.91, rushing 0.14), defensive PPA 0.14 (passing 0.35, rushing -0.04). Third-down offense was a dagger at 1.52. Ohio State against Ball State: offensive PPA 0.67 (passing 0.87, rushing 0.46), defensive PPA -0.24 (passing -0.22, rushing -0.27). The Buckeyes were positive on every offensive down and negative on every defensive down except a mild 0.12 on third down. 1 One week against cupcakes is a postcard, not a novel, but the postcard is not ambiguous. Ohio State's offense added a third more PPA per play, its rushing PPA was more than triple Texas', and its defense was actually taking points off the board rather than merely limiting them. Texas' passing PPA of 0.91 is the home-team hope — Manning can still light a fuse — and the 1.52 third-down PPA says Sarkisian's dropback game was surgical when it had to be. The Season Form Trend has no slope yet. It has a single spike for each side, and Ohio State's spike is taller on both axes. 11 PLAYER PPA Player PPA isolates the individuals who actually moved the chains, ranked by total predicted points added. Texas is a Manning production company. Arch Manning accounts for 24.236 total PPA (0.808 per play, 0.991 passing, 1.198 on passing downs, 1.883 on third down). Ryan Wingo follows at 12.424 (1.553 average), Cam Coleman at 8.571 (2.143 average, 3.013 on passing downs), and Daylan Smothers at 7.956. James Simon punched in 3.488 rushing PPA on a tiny sample; Derrek Cooper was underwater at -0.963 before the ankle gave out. 1 Ohio State is Sayin-to-Smith. Julian Sayin leads all players in the game at 26.154 total PPA (0.934 average, 0.861 passing, a wild 2.916 rushing). Jeremiah Smith is the single most dangerous skill player on either roster at 16.241 total and 1.624 per play, including 3.235 on passing downs. Behind them it is a committee: Luke Fahey 5.974, Devin McCuin 5.053, Bo Jackson 4.938, Ja'Kobi Jackson 4.868, Legend Bey 4.706, Isaiah West 4.550. No Buckeye running back dominates; four of them are clustered between 4.5 and 4.9. 1 The Top Individual Impact chart will have Sayin, Manning, Smith, and Wingo in that conversation, and that is the game. Manning's third-down PPA of 1.883 is a weapon Ohio State's defense has to account for without selling out and handing Smith a one-on-one. Sayin's rushing PPA is the sleeper: if Texas' front seven treats him like a statue, he will make them pay. Coleman's 2.143 average on a four-catch-or-so debut is the portal addition that changes Texas' geometry. If Wingo and Coleman are both live, Ohio State's secondary has to pick its poison, and Smith's 16.2 PPA says Texas cannot afford to be wrong. 12 TEAM SEASON STATS These are the raw counting stats from one game, useful as a sanity check on the advanced numbers and dangerous if you treat them as a season. Texas: 516 total yards, 360 passing, 156 rushing, 26 first downs, 26-of-34 passing, 4 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs, 11-of-15 on third down, 1 turnover, 3 takeaways, 2 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 59-7. Ohio State: 671 total yards, 434 passing, 237 rushing, 32 first downs, 31-of-37 passing, 5 passing TDs, 3 rushing TDs, 5-of-11 on third down, 1 turnover, 1 takeaway, 1 sack, 7 tackles for loss, 56-3. Ohio State allowed 165 yards and 45 rushing yards. Texas allowed 349 yards and 161 rushing yards. 1 The counting stats agree with the advanced profile in the ways that matter and argue with it in the ways that don't. Ohio State was a wrecking ball — more yards, more first downs, more rushing, fewer yards allowed — which matches the PPA and success-rate gaps. Texas was more efficient on third down (11-of-15 versus 5-of-11) and won the turnover margin 3-1, which matches Manning's 1.883 third-down PPA and the havoc rate. What the box scores cannot tell you is that both opponents were tomato cans. Texas State's 161 rushing yards against Texas is the number that will not die: the Longhorns' 18th-percentile line-yards rating is sitting right there in the rushing-yards-allowed column, waiting for a Big Ten offensive line to cash it. 13 ADJUSTED TEAM METRICS No data was available for that section. 14 TEXAS LONGHORNS INJURY UPDATES Medical items only, split by source. Live web research: No qualifying injury reports were found within the 14-day window for current Texas Longhorns players that pertain specifically to this matchup. Injury feed: Derrek Cooper, freshman running back, is out for the foreseeable future with a right ankle injury suffered in the Texas State game; he is in a walking boot and finished that night with two carries for six yards. 235657 Trevor Goosby, left tackle, suffered a non-contact bone bruise in his left knee in August, returned to practice, was cleared, and is expected to play with a managed snap count. 27822 Laurence Seymore III, left guard, missed camp time with an injury, returned, and split 36 snaps with Dylan Sikorski against Texas State; he is available. 258 Older Week 1 designations in the same feed listed Isaiah Bond (hamstring, out versus Texas State), Jaydon Blue (lower-leg, out versus Texas State), Byron Murphy II (probable), and Malik Muhammad (doubtful, groin). 13141519 Cooper's absence is real and also not a scheme-killer — he was the third back behind Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown, and his Week 1 PPA was already negative. Goosby is the one that would have changed the math, and the feed says he is playing. A managed workload at left tackle against Ohio State's front is still a tax on Arch Manning's timing, especially if the heat pushes the staff to rotate earlier than they want. Seymore's snap-split with Sikorski is the interior tell: Texas is not settled at left guard, and that is exactly where a 96th-percentile run defense will come looking. 15 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES INJURY UPDATES Medical items only, split by source. Live web research: No qualifying injury reports were found within the 14-day window for current Ohio State players that pertain specifically to this matchup. Injury feed: Kyle Parker, wide receiver, is expected to miss a second straight game and will not play against Texas. 268 Qua Russaw, the Alabama-transfer edge, has been cleared after missing the Ball State opener and is expected to debut in a standup edge role. 267 Week 1 designations, now stale for this game, listed Caleb Downs as questionable with a hamstring, Tywone Malone as probable with a back strain, and Denzel Burke as cleared. 737475 Parker's absence is depth, not oxygen. Jeremiah Smith (16.2 PPA), Devin McCuin (5.1), and Brandon Inniss (3.0) are the passing game, and Parker was never going to be a featured piece. Russaw is the addition that actually moves a unit: Texas' left-tackle situation is already on a pitch count, and an extra edge who has had a full week of practice is the kind of available body Matt Patricia can throw at Manning on third down. Downs' Week 1 hamstring is worth a glance only because a half-speed All-American safety against Wingo and Coleman is a different game than a full-speed one; the feed does not list him as out for this week. 16 KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS The defining individual battles, tied to the Player PPA and the efficiency profile rather than to press-box folklore. Arch Manning versus Ohio State's front four is the game inside the game. Manning's 24.2 total PPA and 1.198 passing-downs PPA are how Texas stays in this, and Ohio State's defensive line yards (1.20, 96th percentile) plus a 22.6% havoc rate are how the Buckeyes take it away. Jim Knowles has already said the plan is a four-man rush, no extra blitzes, trusting the front to get home. 107 If Goosby is on a snap count and Seymore is rotating with Sikorski, Manning's 0.991 passing PPA starts leaking. The counter is Manning's 0.667 rushing PPA and 1.883 on third down — he is not a statue, and a four-man rush that loses contain will donate the explosive plays Texas' 93rd-percentile explosiveness is built on. Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 8 of 12
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Julian Sayin versus Texas' front seven is the mirror. Sayin leads all players in this game in total PPA (26.2) and his 2.916 rushing PPA is the number Texas cannot ignore. Texas generated an 20.5% havoc rate and 8 tackles for loss against Texas State, and the projected front of Colin Simmons, Lance Jackson, Hero Kanu, and Maraad Watson is the unit Ryan Day called the biggest unknown because Will Muschamp is calling it. 7088 Keep Sayin in the pocket and the 0.861 passing PPA with Smith (1.796 receiving PPA) still travels. Let him scramble and the standard-downs 1.023 PPA becomes a slow death. Jeremiah Smith versus Texas' corners (projected Kade Phillips and Bo Mascoe) is the mismatch Texas has to scheme around, not through. 70 Smith's 16.2 total PPA and 3.235 passing-downs PPA make him the single highest-leverage skill player on the field. Texas' defensive passing-downs PPA allowed was 0.681 — the soft underbelly of an otherwise decent standard-downs unit. If Muschamp rolls coverage at Smith, McCuin (5.1 PPA) and Inniss (3.0) become the cheap production. If he doesn't, Smith will post another 16-PPA night and the building will get quiet. Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo versus Ohio State's secondary is Texas' return fire. Wingo's 12.4 PPA and Coleman's 2.143 average are the reason the Longhorns can still win a game they cannot run. Ohio State's defensive success rate (21%, 94th percentile) says those chunk plays will be rare. Texas' passing explosiveness (2.25 on passing downs) says rare is enough. Hollywood Smothers (7.96 PPA, 0.221 rushing) against that same 96th-percentile line-yards defense is the at-best complementary piece; if Texas is handing it to Smothers on first down against this front, Sarkisian has already lost the script. 17 TEXAS LONGHORNS ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster news only. Verified transfer portal: Incoming: Cam Coleman, WR, Auburn, 5-star (0.98); Hollywood Smothers, RB, NC State, 4-star (0.94); Rasheem Biles, LB, Pittsburgh, 4-star (0.93); Melvin Siani, OT, Wake Forest, 4-star (0.93); Raleek Brown, RB, Arizona State, 4-star (0.92); Ian Geffrard, DL, Arkansas, 4-star (0.92); Bo Mascoe, CB, Rutgers, 4-star (0.91); Sterling Berkhalter, WR, Wake Forest, 4-star (0.91); Laurence Seymore III, IOL, Western Kentucky, 3-star (0.87); Jonte Newman, OT, Texas A&M, 3-star (0.87); Justin Cryer, LB, Florida State, 3-star (0.87); Paris Patterson, IOL, SMU, 3-star (0.86); Dylan Sikorski, IOL, Oregon State, 3-star (0.86); Zion Williams, DL, LSU, 3-star (0.86); Michael Masunas, TE, Michigan State, 3-star (0.86); plus a cluster of three-stars and specialists (Markus Boswell, Darius Snow, MJ Morris, Nick Hudson, Trey Dubuc, Mac Chiumento, Gianni Spetic). Outgoing: DeAndre Moore Jr. WR to Colorado (4-star); Quintrevion Wisner RB to Florida State (4-star); Parker Livingstone WR to Oklahoma (4-star); Nick Brooks IOL to Alabama (4- star); Liona Lefau LB to Colorado (4-star); Elijah Barnes LB to Kentucky (4-star); CJ Baxter RB to Kentucky; plus a long list of three-star skill and line departures. 1 Researched news: Cam Coleman started at receiver in the Texas State win, caught three balls for 70 yards and two touchdowns, and is projected to start alongside Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V. 8770 Hollywood Smothers won the starting running back job over Raleek Brown, went for 70 yards on 10 carries plus a receiving score, and ripped a 45- yarder on the first snap. 4 Dylan Sikorski started at left guard; Seymore rotated. 4 Spencer Shannon won the tight end job over Michael Masunas after Masunas' run-blocking disappointed. 4 Will Muschamp is back as defensive coordinator, and Ryan Day called him the biggest unknown on the field because there is almost no current film of him calling plays. 88 Jabbar Juluke is the new running backs coach over a rebuilt room. 4 Projected defensive starters include Colin Simmons and Lance Jackson at end, Hero Kanu and Maraad Watson inside, Rasheem Biles and Justin Cryer at linebacker, Jelani McDonald at strong safety, and Kade Phillips and Bo Mascoe at corner. 70 Gianni Spetic, the Memphis portal kicker, drilled a 48-yarder in Week 1. 80 The portal math is the actual story of this Texas team. They lost a four-star receiver, a four-star running back, and a four-star interior lineman, then replaced them with a five-star receiver, two four-star backs, and a pile of interior bodies. Coleman's debut PPA (8.6) already justifies the 0.98 rating. Smothers' 8.0 PPA justifies the starting nod. The unresolved piece is the interior line rotation — Sikorski and Seymore splitting a position Ohio State will attack — and Muschamp, whose scheme is a first-look problem for a Buckeye offense that just spent a week installing against Ball State looks. 18 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES ROSTER UPDATES Non-injury roster news only. Verified transfer portal: Incoming: Terry Moore, S, Duke, 4-star (0.94); James Smith, DL, Alabama, 4-star (0.94); Qua Russaw, EDGE, Alabama, 4-star (0.93); Earl Little Jr., S, Florida State, 4-star (0.93); Hunter Welcing, TE, Northwestern, 4-star (0.91); Dominick Kelly, CB, Georgia, 4-star (0.90); Ja'Kobi Jackson, RB, Florida, 3-star (0.88); Cam Calhoun, CB, Alabama, 3-star (0.88); Christian Alliegro, LB, Wisconsin, 3-star (0.88); Kyle Parker, WR, LSU, 3-star (0.87); John Walker, DL, UCF, 3-star (0.87); Justyn Martin, QB, Maryland, 3- star (0.86); Devin McCuin, WR, UTSA, 3-star (0.86); plus Vasean Washington, Mason Williams, Connor Hawkins, Dalton Riggs. Outgoing: Quincy Porter WR to Notre Dame (4-star); Tegra Tshabola IOL to Kentucky (4-star); Mylan Graham WR to Notre Dame (4-star); Faheem Delane S to LSU (4-star); plus a long three-star exodus on the edges and in the secondary. 1 Researched news: Qua Russaw is cleared and will debut Saturday in a standup edge role after a full week of practice; he dressed but did not play against Ball State. 67 Phillip Daniels is starting at right tackle on a short leash after being pulled against Ball State, with Austin Siereveld sliding from right guard to right tackle and Gabe VanSickle entering at guard. 93 Ryan Day said the offensive line mix is still being evaluated; Joshua Padilla is another interior option if Siereveld kicks outside. 94 Ohio State rebuilt the defense from the portal — two Alabama linemen, a Duke safety, an FSU safety, a Georgia corner — and is now asking that group to take its first real snap. Russaw's debut is the headline because it lands on Manning's blind side. The right-tackle short leash is the quieter problem: Texas' projected ends (Simmons, Jackson) do not need an invitation, and a mid-series shuffle on the right side is how a 20.5% havoc defense becomes a 30% havoc defense. McCuin (5.1 PPA) already replaced some of the outgoing receiver production; Parker, the LSU transfer, has not been healthy enough to help. 19 TEXAS LONGHORNS PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES No data was available for that section. 20 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES No data was available for that section. 21 TEXAS LONGHORNS VS OHIO STATE BUCKEYES MEDIA MATCHUP ANALYSIS What the national and local voices are actually saying about Saturday, not what the box scores already told you. The betting public has been fading the home favorite. VegasInsider had the number opening at Texas -4.5 and sliding to -2.5 by September 11, with the total coming down from 54.5 to 52.5, sharp money on the Buckeyes. 103 That is a different number than the current market of Texas -1.5 / 49.75, but the direction of travel is the same: the country is not buying Texas as a multi-score host. ESPN's College GameDay set produced outright Ohio State picks from Nick Saban and Kirk Herbstreit, with Herbstreit pointing at Ohio State's defensive line and a Longhorns offensive line he said had already given up sacks against lesser fronts. 104 Urban Meyer, calling Big Noon Kickoff from Austin, picked Ohio State because "Ohio State is built to win now." 114 The scoreboard guesses cluster in the same neighborhood. Stewart Mandel had Ohio State 31-27 and flagged Texas' offensive line as the risk. 105 Bill Rabinowitz of the Dispatch went 30-24 Buckeyes and said the Buckeye offensive line versus Texas' defensive line decides it. 108 Joel Klatt was the contrarian, taking Texas 38-34 on Manning's big-game résumé. 109 On the coaching circuit, Sarkisian called Ohio State's pass rush the best Texas will see all year; Knowles said the Buckeyes will rush four and not blitz, trusting the front to bother Manning. 106107 Ryan Day, for his part, named Will Muschamp the unknown and talked about walking into enemy territory with a villain streak. 88102 The through-line is not subtle. National media trusts Ohio State's front four more than it trusts Texas' rebuilt line, and the line movement agrees. The Klatt pick is the only loud Texas-outright take in the pile, and it is a personality call, not a trench call. If you are looking for someone in a headset who likes the Longhorns' protection, you will be looking for a while. Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 9 of 12
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22 GAME CONDITIONS AND BETTING CONTEXT The forecast, the building, the number, and what those things do to this specific style. The Game Conditions card has it as a clear 96.6°F night at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, open air, artificial turf, wind 8.1 mph from the southeast (138°), humidity 40%, precipitation a rounding error at 0.004, elevation 160 meters, capacity 100,119. That is a furnace, not a weather event. An 8-mph breeze does not kill the downfield passing game. Ninety-seven degrees with no roof does tax a visiting offensive line in the fourth quarter, and it does drain a pass rush that has to pin its ears back for 70-plus snaps. Heat of this kind is a silent home-field extra, on top of the 2.4 points already in the model, and it is the one physical condition that actually leans Texas. Turf in a dry heat also keeps the track fast — no rain to muddy Ohio State's zone-run looks or to drag Texas' explosive passing game into the muck. Texas is 1-0 against the spread this season with an average cover of 22.5 points. Ohio State is 1-0 ATS with an average cover of 2. Both covers came against cupcakes; neither tells you anything about a top-five road favorite getting 1.5 points. The market's pregame win probability is 54.1% Texas at -1.5. The statistical baseline, a 50/50 blend of the ratings consensus and that market line, sits at a 0.74-point Texas margin, a 52.2% home win probability, and a projected total of 56.1. The market total of 49.75 is well below that blended scoring projection, which is the book saying these two defenses will do what the cupcake box scores did not. 23 FINAL PREDICTION Ohio State wins this game, 27-24. The statistical baseline consensus margin is Texas by 0.74 — a blend of SP+ (Ohio State by 2.2), FPI (Texas by 2.67), Elo (Ohio State by 0.52), and a 50% weight on the market's Texas -1.5 — with a 28-28 rounded score and a 56.1 total. I am moving off that anchor by roughly three points toward the Buckeyes. The move is the Mismatch Matrix made flesh: Texas' 18th-percentile line yards against Ohio State's 96th-percentile defensive line yards, Ohio State's 96th-percentile offensive PPA against Texas' 34th-percentile defensive PPA, and a left-guard rotation plus a pitch-counted left tackle against a front that just added Qua Russaw. Heat and 100,119 seats buy Texas a point back. They do not buy the Longhorns a push. The market is Texas -1.5 at a 49.75 total (Bovada, DraftKings). I have Ohio State by 3, so the play is Ohio State +1.5. The projected 51 points sits a shade over 49.75; take the over. A 97-degree kickoff is the argument for the under, and it is a real one, but two offenses rated 39-plus in SP+ in a track-meet building will still find 50. The case is three things. First, Ohio State's defense is the best unit in the game — SP+ 10.1, Week 1 success rate allowed 21%, line yards 1.20 — and Texas already showed, against Texas State, that it cannot run into a loaded box. Second, Sayin (26.2 PPA) and Smith (16.2 PPA) are a higher-leverage pairing than Manning and Wingo once you take away Texas' explosive-play script, and Muschamp's first look at them comes without a week of useful film. Third, the market has already been sliding toward the Buckeyes for a week; the remaining Texas -1.5 is leftover home-field, not a read on the trenches. Lay the points with the road team. Live with the heat. THE VERDICT · The projected final score, win probability, the model's spread set against the market and the pick that comparison implies — the report's bottom line in one card. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. Steve Sarkisian Announces Derrek Cooper Injury Update for Texas Longhorns (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/steve-sarkisian-announces-derrek-cooper-injury-update-for-texas-longhorns 4. ‘Big, little’ Texas running game faces bigger challenge in Ohio State | Burnt Orange Nation (Burnt Orange Nation) https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/104443/texas-longhorns-running-game-ohio-state-buckeyes 5. No. 4 Texas vs. No. 1 Ohio State: How to Watch, Odds, Injuries, and More https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/no-4-texas-vs-no-1-ohio-state-how-to-watch-odds-injuries-and-more 6. Inside the Program: Texas Intel Ahead of the Ohio State Showdown - T-SPAN https://tspantx.com/inside-the-program-texas-intel-ahead-of-the-ohio-state-showdown/ 7. Sources: Trevor Goosby's left knee injury diagnosed as a bone bruise - Articles - On Texas Football (On Texas Football) https://ontexasfootball.com/news/articles/sources-trevor-goosbys-left-knee-injury-diagnosed-as-a-bone-bruise-r4078/ 8. Steve Sarkisian Confirms Trevor Goosby's Status Ahead of Season Opener (SI.com) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/steve-sarkisian-confirms-trevor-goosby-status-ahead-of-season-opener 9. Texas Longhorns: Update Status Of Projected Top 20 Pick - Gridiron Heroics (Gridiron Heroics) https://gridironheroics.com/texas-longhorns-update-status-of-projected-top-20-pick/ 61. Big 12 requiring player availability reports starting this season (247sports.com) https://247sports.com/college/texas-tech/article/texas-tech-red-raiders-college-football-injury- report-oregon-state-beavers-253903682/ 62. list of players ruled out for Oregon State game (247sports.com) https://247sports.com/college/texas-tech/article/texas-tech-red-raiders-college-football-game-day- injury-report-oregon-state-beavers-253903682/ 63. Texas A&M RB Jamarion Morrow 'nicked up' but fully expected to play vs Arizona State (Aggies Wire) https://aggieswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/aggies/football/2026/09/11/updated-texas- aggies-football-injury-report-before-hosting-arizona-state/91699004007/ 64. No other significant injuries reported for Texas Tech vs Oregon State (Covers.com) https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/matchup/377803 65. Texas Tech releases final injury report 90 minutes before kickoff (247sports.com) https://247sports.com/pages/Index-page/texas-tech-red-raiders-college-football-injury-report- oregon-state-beavers-253903682/ 66. Ohio State football hit with mixed bag of injury news just ahead of game against Texas https://atozsports.com/college-football/ohio-state-buckeyes-news/ohio-state-football-hit-with- mixed-bag-of-injury-news-just-ahead-of-game-against-texas/ 67. Qua Russaw Expected to Make Ohio State Debut Against Texas After Full Week of Practice | Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 10 of 12
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10. Football vs Ohio State on 9/12/2026 - Game Center - University of Texas Athletics https://texaslonghorns.com/game-center/22495 11. Football vs Ohio State on 9/12/2026 - Game Center https://texaslonghorns.com/ 12. Ohio State vs Texas Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats - NBC Sports https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/college-football/news/ohio-state-vs-texas-prediction-odds-expert-picks-team-and-player-news-betting- trends-and-stats 13. Bond out vs Texas State with hamstring injury (Burnt Orange Nation) https://www.burntorangenation.com/2026/8/29/24345678/bond-out-texas-state-hamstring 14. Blue ruled out, Baxter to lead backfield (Dallas Morning News) https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-longhorns/2026/08/29/blue-out-texas-state/ 15. Murphy seen in non-contact jersey, expected to play (Longhorn Insider) https://www.longhorninsider.com/murphy-non-contact/ 16. Bobcats WR Wilson out with knee injury (Bobcat Report) https://www.bobcatreport.com/wilson-out-knee/ 17. Beau Sparks sits out practice again as precaution; Jordan Martin, Dameon Crowe shine (Yahoo Sports) https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texas-state-football-wide-receivers-211500077.html 18. Left tackle Banks questionable with knee sprain (Inside Texas) https://www.insidetexas.com/news/banks-questionable-knee/ 19. Cornerback Muhammad doubtful for opener (Hookem Headlines) https://www.hookemheadlines.com/cb-muhammad-doubtful/ 20. Zach Johnson out for season with injury (Denton Record-Chronicle) https://dentonrc.com/sports/colleges/mean_green/unt-has-wrapped-up-the-camp-portion-of-its-offseason-heres-what-we- learned/article_5e7852db-19c6-4292-8ef7-581c61c62ac2.html 21. Daymion Sanford expected to be available for opener vs Arizona State (Roundtable.io) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/texas-am/news/texas-a-m-gets-encouraging-injury-update-before-opener 22. Trevor Goosby Returns to Practice, Trending Toward Ohio State Return (Sports Illustrated (Texas Longhorns on SI)) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/trevor-goosby-injury-update-before-texas-longhorns-season-opener 23. Sarkisian: Both Goosby and Seymore 'Looked Really Good' in Practice (Sports Illustrated (Texas Longhorns on SI)) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/injury-updates-after-texas-longhorns-second-scrimmage-fall-camp 24. Left Guard Competition Unresolved: Seymore vs. Sikorski for Opener (Longhorns Wire) https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/football/2026/08/31/texas-longhorns-still-have-late-minute-positions- battles-to-settle/91546000007/ 25. Trey White to miss season opener with knee injury (Wreck'em Red) https://wreckemred.com/texas-tech-football-will-be-without-starting-defender-against-abilene-christian 26. Will Hammond cleared to start after ACL recovery (Dallas Sports Journal) https://dallassportsjournal.com/will-hammond-joey-mcguire-texas-tech-ranking-quarterback-doubts/ 27. Texas A&M LB Daymion Sanford game-time decision for Missouri State (KBTX) https://www.kbtx.com/2026/08/31/texas-am-lb-daymion-sanford-game-time-decision-missouri-state/ 28. Trey White injury update: Texas Tech LB week-to-week with knee (Red Raiders Wire (USA Today)) https://redraiderswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/red-raiders/football/2026/08/31/texas-tech-football-trey-white-injury- update/91550303007/ 29. Projected Texas Tech starter dinged up heading into season opener (Lufkin Daily News (via Lubbock Avalanche-Journal)) https://lufkindailynews.com/news_reuters/state/projected-texas-tech-football-starter-dinged-up-heading-into-season- opener/article_9b907fb5-d7af-59b0-accd-d3948cf606c9.html 30. Texas Tech starter is 'week-to-week', could miss first game (Roundtable.io) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/texas-tech/players/texas-tech-starter-week-to-week-could-miss-first-game 31. Caden Jenkins out for season with ACL injury (Underdog Dynasty) https://www.underdogdynasty.com/american-conference/45308/2026-week-1-preview-north-texas-mean-green-indiana-hoosiers 32. Texas A&M football unveils its first depth chart of the season (KBTX) https://www.kbtx.com/2026/09/01/texas-am-football-unveils-its-first-depth-chart-season/ 33. Trevor Goosby injury update: Tackle back at Texas football practice (Austin American-Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/football/article/texas-football-trevor-goosby-update-texas-state-22410679.php 34. Texas Tech announces multiple season-ending injuries before opener (Roundtable.io) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/texas-tech/news/joey-mcguire-gives-texas-tech-injury-updates-as-coaches-poll-revealed 35. Thomas Castellanos available but not expected to play in opener (ClutchPoints) https://clutchpoints.com/ncaa-football/texas-tech-football-news-thomas-castellanos-status-red-raiders-season-opener-acu-revealed 36. Will Hammond (ACL) fully healthy, set to start opener (KCBD) https://www.kcbd.com/2026/09/01/will-hammond-excited-return-castellanos-adds-experience-qb-room/ 37. RB Quinten Joyner returns from ACL injury for opener (On3 / Red Raider Sports) https://www.on3.com/sites/red-raider-sports/news/the-best-right-guard-in-the-country-everything-joey-mcguire-texas-tech-players-said- at-red-raider-football-radio-show/ 38. Mean Green lose top cornerback for season (North Texas Daily) https://www.ntdaily.com/sports/football-fall-camp-report-mean-green-lose-top-cornerback-as-depth-chart-begins-to- take/article_7e55ba4b-2264-491f-b293-5f21926d4042.html 39. Senior cornerback Zach Johnson out for Week 1 (The Hoosier Network) https://www.thehoosiernetwork.com/article/2026/09/indiana-football-north-texas-scouting-report 40. North Texas cornerback room hit by injuries (Hoosier Huddle) https://hoosierhuddle.com/2026/09/01/know-your-opponent-north-texas-mean-green/ 41. Depth chart shows injured players as starters (Ourlads) https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/north-texas/92660/ 42. Texas A&M LB Daymion Sanford a game-time decision for Arizona State game (SI) https://www.si.com/college/tamu/football/mike-elkos-update-on-daymion-sanford-and-what-it-means-for-texas-am 43. White cleared for Week 1 after knee injury (North Texas Daily) https://www.ntdaily.com/sports/an-opportunity-that-doesn-t-come-often-north-texas-football-gears-up-for-nationally- televised/article_9acf41b6-3308-4cc7-8d96-6e7b1626a8e4.html 44. Longhorns' Trevor Goosby Looks 'Really Good'; Injured LT Could Start Week 1 (Roundtable Sports) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/texas-longhorns/players/longhorns-trevor-goosby-looks-really-good-injured-lt-could-start-week-1 45. UNT returns few starters but no additional injuries reported (Denton Record-Chronicle) https://dentonrc.com/sports/colleges/mean_green/north-texas-gameday-unt-confident-heading-into-monumental-challenge-at- indiana/article_bf91815a-c236-4abe-9019-2c9ebe6b7121.html 46. Texas LT Trevor Goosby Cleared but Workload Will Be Managed (Dallas Sports Journal) https://dallassportsjournal.com/evor-goosby-texas-longhorns-knee-injury-cleared-texas-state/ 47. Trevor Goosby update good news for Texas QB Arch Manning (Yardbarker) https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/trevor_goosby_update_good_news_for_texas_qb_arch_manning/s1_13132_44255183 48. Daymion Sanford game-time decision for season opener, expected to play (Aggies Wire (USA Today)) https://aggieswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/aggies/football/2026/09/04/updated-texas-aggies-football-injury-report-before- hosting-missouri-state/91594405007/ 49. Texas Tech without pair of defensive starters v. ACU (On3) https://www.on3.com/sites/red-raider-sports/news/texas-tech-without-pair-of-defensive-starters-v-acu/ 50. Texas Tech Red Raiders Injuries 2026-2027 - Updated NCAAF Injury Report (Covers.com) https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/teams/main/texas-tech-red-raiders/injuries 51. Texas Tech Defense 'Eats' Despite Missing 2 Starters in Opener (Roundtable.io) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/texas-tech/players/texas-tech-defense-eats-despite-missing-2-starters-in-opener 52. Texas A&M WR Madden Williams out for 2026 season with lower-body injury requiring surgery (Dallas Sports Journal) https://dallassportsjournal.com/mike-elko-madden-williams-texas-am-season-ending-injury-surgery/ 53. Texas A&M DL Chace Sims out for 2026 season (SECFB) https://secfb.com/texas-am-season-ending-injuries/ 54. Texas A&M true freshman WR Madden Williams out for season, Elko confirms (On3 / Aggie Yell) https://www.on3.com/sites/aggie-yell/news/texas-am-football-injury-update-mike-elko-madden-williams-daymion-sanford-tawfiq-byard/ 55. Texas OL Cole Hutson Ruled Ineligible; Team Appealing (Gridiron Heroics) https://gridironheroics.com/texas-ol-cole-hutson-ruled-ineligible-days-before-ohio-state-comes-to-austin/ 56. Texas RB Derrek Cooper out for 'foreseeable future' with ankle injury (Burnt Orange Nation) https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/104343/derrek-cooper-injury-texas-longhorns 57. Texas Freshman RB Derrek Cooper Out Indefinitely with Ankle Injury (Dallas Sports Journal) https://dallassportsjournal.com/steve-sarkisian-derrek-cooper-injury-update-ohio-state/ Eleven Warriors (Eleven Warriors) https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2026/09/163794/qua-russaw-expected-to- make-ohio-state-debut-against-texas-after-full-week-of-practice 68. Kyle Parker Injury: Expected to miss his second straight game | RotoWire (RotoWire) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/headlines/kyle-parker-injury-expected-to-miss-his-second- straight-game-229424 69. Do your homework and get prepared for tomorrow’s Ohio State-Texas game | Land-Grant Holy Land https://www.landgrantholyland.com/ohio-state-news/121640/ohio-state-texas-football-previews- new-roundup 70. Ohio State vs. Texas Preview: Elite Quarterbacks, Battles In The Trenches and Flashy Wide Receivers Highlight Top-4 Matchup | Eleven Warriors (Eleven Warriors) https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2026/09/163749/ohio-state-vs-texas-preview- elite-quarterbacks-battles-in-the-trenches-flashy-wide-receivers-highlight-top-four-matchup 71. Julian Sayin Explains Jeremiah Smith’s Struggles Against Texas https://dallassportsjournal.com/julian-sayin-jeremiah-smith-texas-ohio-state-targets/ 72. Ohio State vs. Texas (Sep 12, 2026) Pregame - ESPN https://www.espn.com/college-football/preview/_/gameId/401856682 73. Caleb Downs questionable for opener with hamstring injury (The Columbus Dispatch) https://www.dispatch.com/story/sports/college/football/2026/08/29/ohio-state-caleb-downs-injury- questionable-ball-state/ 74. Tywone Malone probable with back strain (Land-Grant Holy Land) https://www.landgrantholyland.com/2026/8/29/242900/ohio-state-football-tywone-malone-injury- probable-ball-state 75. Denzel Burke cleared to play vs Ball State (The Athletic) https://theathletic.com/live-blogs/ohio-state-news-buckeyes-injury-update-ball-state/ 76. BREAKING: Ohio State Buckeyes Star Player Injury Scare (SportFiles2) https://www.sportfiles2.com/breaking-ohio-state-buckeyes-star-player-injury-scare-sends- shockwaves-through-program/ 77. Final Ohio State depth chart and season predictions ahead of Week 1 vs. Ball State (Our Insane Blogs) https://ourinsaneblogs.com/2026/09/01/final-ohio-state-depth-chart-and-season-predictions- ahead-of-week-1-vs-ball-state/ 78. Big Changes Coming To The Big Ten's Availability Report (Buckeyes Tomorrow Morning (Podcast)) https://podscan.fm/podcasts/buckeyes-tomorrow-morning/episodes/big-changes-coming-to-the- big-tens-availability-report 79. Ohio State injury report: 10 players out for Week 3 against Ohio (NBC4 WCMH-TV) https://www.nbc4i.com/sports/buckeyes/ohio-state-injury-report-who-is-out-for-week-3-against- ohio/ 80. Texas-Ohio St Position Duels: Sayin with small edge, OL a true toss-up (Longhorns Wire) https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/football/2026/09/11/texas- ohio-st-position-duels-sayin-with-small-edge-ol-a-true-toss-up/91709317007/ 81. 3 Best Positional Matchups To Watch in Ohio State Against Texas https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/news/3-best-positional-matchups-to-watch-in-ohio-state- against-texas-01m26grx9b7a 82. Matchups to watch: Play calling duels key to Texas vs. Ohio State https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/football/2026/09/09/matchups- to-watch-play-calling-duels-key-to-texas-vs-ohio-state/91674164007/ 83. Ohio State vs. Texas: Which team has the edge at each position huge Week 2 matchup? - CBS Sports https://sportsfly.cbsistatic.com/college-football/news/ohio-state-texas-position-breakdown-week-2/ 84. Texas Longhorns' Best Path to Beating Ohio State Starts With Julian Sayin https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-best-path-to-beating-ohio-state-starts- with-julian-sayin 85. Ohio State D Line Sets Sights On Manning - Press Pros Magazine https://pressprosmagazine.com/2026/09/12/ohio-state-d-line-sets-sights-on-manning/ 86. Ohio State Week 2 Preview: The First Real Test For The Buckeyes' Retooled Defense https://lastwordonsports.com/collegefootball/2026/09/11/ohio-state-week-2-defense/ 87. Cam Coleman, Auburn transfer, starts at WR and scores two TDs in Texas debut (Eleven Warriors) https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2026/09/163749/ohic-state-vs-texas-preview- elite-quarterbacks-battles-in-the-trenches-flashy-wide-receivers-highlight-top-four-matchup 88. Will Muschamp returns as Texas defensive coordinator, giving Ohio State an unknown play caller (Dallas Sports Journal) https://dallassportsjournal.com/ryan-day-will-muschamp-unknown-ohio-state-texas/ 89. Texas Longhorns WR Cam Coleman Gives Ohio State New Problem to Solve https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-wr-cam-coleman-gives-ohio-state-new- problem-to-solve 90. Steve Sarkisian Addresses Pressure Before Texas-Ohio State https://dallassportsjournal.com/steve-sarkisian-texas-ohio-state-pressure-big-stage/ 91. Steve Sarkisian Reveals How Texas is Preparing for Ohio State’s Game Plan https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/steve-sarkisian-reveals-how-texas-is-preparing-for-ohio- state-game-plan 92. Five Things That Will Decide Texas Football vs. Ohio State https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/five-things-that-will-decide-texas-football-vs-ohio-state 93. Phillip Daniels reportedly on short leash at right tackle vs Texas (Scarlet and Game) https://scarletandgame.com/ohio-state-football-starter-reportedly-on-a-short-leash-against-texas 94. Ohio State still evaluating offensive line; Siereveld option at right tackle (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/news/one-position-ryan-day-still-needs-to-figure-out-for- ohio-state-football-01m24kncnr0j 95. Jeremiah Smith needs to featured in a new way against Texas https://scarletandgame.com/jeremiah-smith-needs-to-featured-in-a-new-way-against-texas 96. Ohio State Football: Legend Bey Earned Back Trust, Expected to be Buckeyes’ Kickoff Returner https://tsilverbulletin.com/2026/09/ohio-state-football-legend-bey-earned-back-trust-expected-to- be-buckeyes-kickoff-returner/ 97. Ryan Day Reveals Unexpected Advantage Set to Help OSU Against Steve Sarkisian’s Texas - EssentiallySports https://www.essentiallysports.com/ncaa-college-football-news-ryan-day-reveals-unexpected- advantage-set-to-help-osu-against-steve-sarkisians-texas/ 98. To beat Ohio State, Texas must be the best version of itself – The Daily Texan https://thedailytexan.com/2026/09/11/to-beat-ohio-state-texas-must-be-the-best-version-of-itself/ 99. Steve Sarkisian acknowledges Week 1 helped Texas none in Ohio State prep https://scarletandgame.com/steve-sarkisian-acknowledges-week-1-helped-texas-none-in-ohio- state-prep 100. Texas Film Room: Why Ohio State's Offense is Dangerously Unpredictable https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-film-room-why-ohio-state-offense-is- dangerously-unpredictable 101. Jeremiah Smith eyes a breakthrough vs. Texas as top-ranked Ohio State meets the No. 4 Longhorns | The Blade https://www.toledoblade.com/sports/ohio-state/2026/09/09/jeremiah-smith-breakthrough-texas- ohio-state/stories/20260909125 102. Ryan Day Shares Final Message as Ohio State Embraces ‘Villain’ Mentality Upon Entering Enemy Territory - EssentiallySports https://www.essentiallysports.com/ncaa-college-football-news-ryan-day-shares-final-message-as- ohio-state-embraces-villain-mentality-upon-entering-enemy-territory/ 103. Line movement: Texas -4.5 to -2.5 in early big-game betting (VegasInsider) https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/texas-buckeyes-line-movement 104. GameDay analysts pick Ohio State outright against Texas (ESPN College GameDay) https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/texas-buckeyes-gameday-previews 105. Mandel: Ohio State wins in a close one, but Texas's new O-line is the risk (The Athletic) https://theathletic.com/texas-ohio-state-preview-mandel-2026 Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 11 of 12
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58. Texas LG Laurence Seymore Returns from Camp Injury, Splits Reps (Burnt Orange Nation) https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/104349/left-guard-rotation-dyan-sikorski-laurence-seymore 59. Texas A&M wide receiver room deep enough to absorb Madden Williams loss (AtoZ Sports) https://atozsports.com/college-football/texas-am-aggies-news/texas-am-suffered-significant-loss-madden-williams-out-for-season-tawfiq- byard-expected-to-return/ 60. Starting safety Brenden Jordan out due to violation of team rules (Roundtable.io) https://roundtable.io/sports/ncaa/texas-tech/game-day/texas-tech-football-injury-update-ahead-of-week-2-road-trip 106. Sarkisian: Banks moves to right tackle due to calf injury; 'best pass rush we'll see' (Inside Texas (Longhorns beat site)) https://www.insidetexas.com/sarkisian-banks-injury-presser-2026 107. Knowles: Buckeyes will rely on front four to pressure Manning, no extra blitzes planned (The Lantern (Ohio State student paper)) https://www.thelantern.com/knowles-texas-preview-2026 108. Dispatch: Buckeyes O-line vs. Texas D-line will decide game; picks OSU 30-24 (The Columbus Dispatch) https://www.dispatch.com/story/sports/2026/09/teaxs-ohio-state-preview-rabinowitz 109. Klatt picks Texas upset in prime-time thriller (Sports Illustrated (Longhorns Fan Nation)) https://www.si.com/college/texas/news/klatt-pick-texas-ohio-state-2026 110. Day: QB Will Howard cleared to play after shoulder stinger; 'full go' for Texas (Ohio State Athletics (Official site)) https://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/football/news/day-howard-cleared-texas-2026 111. Texas DC Kwiatkowski installs new blitz package for Ohio State (Austin American-Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/texas-longhorns/2026/09/texas-new-blitz-package-vs- ohio-state 112. PFF: Caden Curry's draft stock on the line in marquee matchup (Pro Football Focus) https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2027-caden-curry-texas-ohio-state 113. Banks limited again; backup Goosby taking first-team reps (Dallas Morning News) https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-longhorns/2026/09/09/texas-ot-banks-limited 114. Urban Meyer picks Ohio State; Big Noon Kickoff coming from Austin (Fox Sports) https://www.foxsports.com/story/college-football/big-noon-kickoff-texas-ohio-state-2026 115. Ohio State vs. Texas prediction, picks, odds, spread, where to watch live - CBS Sports https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ohio-state-texas-prediction-picks-odds-spread- where-to-watch-live/ 116. Ohio State vs. Texas Football Prediction and Game Preview https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/ohio-state-vs-texas-football-prediction-game- preview 117. Texas vs. Ohio State Final Score Prediction: Who Wins and Why? https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-vs-ohio-state-final-score-prediction-who-wins-and- why 118. Experts update Texas vs. OSU prediction as Manning, Sayin headline Underdog Pick’em props - syracuse.com https://www.syracuse.com/betting/2026/09/experts-update-texas-vs-osu-prediction-as-manning- sayin-headline-underdog-pickem-props.html 119. Scarlet Spreadsheet: What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Texas | Land-Grant Holy Land https://www.landgrantholyland.com/ohio-state-football/121417/ohio-state-buckeyes-texas- longhorns-analytics-preview-2026 Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 12 of 12
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