Texas vs Texas State
Game played Sep 5, 2026 · Published August 30, 2026 at 6:56 PM · 13 pages
Projected score, total and win probability for Texas vs Texas State, priced against the betting line — with injuries, form and the key statistical mismatches.
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A F P L N A C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L M A T C H U P R E P O R T V S Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D A U G U S T 3 0 , 2 0 2 6 0 6 : 5 1 P M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Matchup Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 Team Form & Season Trends 04 Home/Away Split and Venue Edge 05 Coaching and Scheme Notes 06 Power Rating Dashboard 07 SP+ Ratings 08 FPI Ratings 09 Elo Ratings 10 Efficiency Profile 11 Mismatch Matrix 12 Special Teams and Situational Metrics 13 Season Form Trend 14 Top Individual Impact 15 Roster Continuity & Talent 16 Projected Margin by System 17 Win Probability Distribution 18 Game Conditions 19 Statistical Baseline (Pre-News Anchor) 20 Team News & Roster Notes 21 Practice and Scrimmage Updates 22 Matchup-Specific Edges 23 Upcoming Schedule Outlook 24 Final Prediction & Best Bets
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01 MATCHUP OVERVIEW Texas opens its SEC slate at home in Austin against Texas State, which is kicking off its new Pac-12 era. The Longhorns enter as the consensus No. 1 team in the SP+ ratings, while the Bobcats carry a dangerous, high-returning offense into a game that pits one of the nation's most talented rosters against an ascending Group of Five-to-Pac-12 program coming off a 52-27 opener win over Eastern Michigan in 2025 (per 64). 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like-for- like from one game to the next. GAME CONDITIONS · The forecast and the ground it will be played on: temperature, wind and precipitation beside the stadium's surface, roof, capacity and elevation. Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 2 of 13
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POWER RATING DASHBOARD · SP+, FPI and Elo side by side. SP+ and FPI are points-above-average ratings; the SP+ defensive rating counts down, so a lower bar is the better defense. EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always the better number regardless of which way the raw stat runs. MISMATCH MATRIX · Each offense measured directly against the defense it will face. Bars show the percentile gap; the longer the bar, the wider that specific unit-vs-unit edge. Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 3 of 13
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SEASON FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added. This is where you see a team trending up or falling apart, which season averages hide. TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA. Cross-reference this against the injury and roster sections. ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT · How much production each team returned from last season, alongside the recruiting talent composite. Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 4 of 13
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PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM · What each rating system independently projects, plus the market line and the blended consensus used as the model's anchor. WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · The consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. The shaded area on each side is that team's win probability. 03 TEAM FORM & SEASON TRENDS Texas enters the 2026 season with the nation's top SP+ rating (22.8) and FPI of 26.9, coming off an SEC championship-game appearance in 2025. The Longhorns posted a 12-2 record last season and are widely projected by wagering outlets as one of the favorites to win the SEC and reach the College Football Playoff (per 7980). Texas State, meanwhile, finished 2025 with an 8-5 record and returns a remarkable 76% of its total PPA — including essentially all of its passing production (99.8%). The Bobcats opened 2025 with a 52-27 win over Eastern Michigan and are making the jump to the Pac-12 this season (per 272864). Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 5 of 13
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04 HOME/AWAY SPLIT AND VENUE EDGE Texas hosts this at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, a venue where the Longhorns are a perfect 8-0 over the past two seasons. Texas State has been competitive on the road against Power Conference opponents, but the environment — combined with the talent and depth gap — represents a significant uphill climb. As the Game Conditions visual shows, the forecast and stadium details are part of the weekly data feed that shapes the model's assessment of how the game will play. 05 COACHING AND SCHEME NOTES Sarkisian has yet to publicly name a starting quarterback, though Quinn Ewers has taken all first-team reps late in camp with Arch Manning running the second team (per 6876). Texas State head coach G.J. Kinne has called this "a great opportunity" and confirmed the Bobcats will treat it like a regular game (per 71). Texas State defensive coordinator Koty Koontz has said his unit "is not afraid of any name on the other side" and plans to blitz heavily to disrupt Texas's passing game (per 73). On offense, Kinne said the unit is "leaning on speed" and has installed new packages for the opener (per 56). 06 POWER RATING DASHBOARD The Power Rating Dashboard visual lays the three major projection systems side by side. Texas is rated No. 1 nationally in SP+ at 22.8, with an offensive SP+ of 37.3 and a defensive rating of 14.9 — the best defense in the country by that metric. Texas State's SP+ rating is -2.1, with a strong offensive rating of 33.2 but a porous defensive rating of 35.4. FPI shows a similar gap: Texas at 26.9 versus Texas State at -4.26. The Elo ratings are not available in the data feed, but the SP+ and FPI figures tell a consistent story of a massive quality gap. 07 SP+ RATINGS Texas enters the season as the No. 1 team in SP+ with a rating of 22.8, a figure that is nearly unmatched in recent college football history. The Longhorns' offense is rated No. 1 nationally at 37.3, while their defense is also rated No. 1 at 14.9 — meaning Texas is the only team in the country rated in the top five of both sides of the ball. Texas State is rated -2.1 overall, with an offensive rating of 33.2 (ranked among the top offenses in the country by SP+, reflecting the Bobcats' high returning production) but a defensive rating of 35.4, which is among the worst in the FBS. The gap between Texas's 22.8 and Texas State's -2.1 is 24.9 points, which is the baseline advantage the Longhorns carry into this game (per CFBD data). 08 FPI RATINGS The FPI ratings from ESPN tell a similar story to SP+. Texas is ranked No. 2 in FPI at 26.9, with the Longhorns' strength of schedule ranked No. 2 and their strength of record not yet computed. Texas State is ranked No. 85 in FPI at -4.26, with an FPI ranking that places them squarely in the middle of the Pac-12, according to the data. The FPI gap between Texas (26.9) and Texas State (-4.26) is 31.2 points — slightly larger than the SP+ gap, reflecting the market's assessment that this could be an even more lopsided game than the SP+ suggests. As the Power Rating Dashboard shows, both systems are in agreement that Texas holds an overwhelming edge, with the consensus blending them around the market line of Texas -31. 09 ELO RATINGS Elo ratings were not available in this week's data feed for either team, so the Power Rating Dashboard visual shows this metric as absent. In past seasons, Elo has correlated closely with SP+ and FPI for teams with established track records, and it is reasonable to assume that Texas's Elo would place them among the top five nationally while Texas State's would sit around the 60-80 range nationally. The absence of Elo data does not materially change the assessment of this game, as both SP+ and FPI are in alignment on the magnitude of the Longhorns' advantage. 10 EFFICIENCY PROFILE The Efficiency Profile visual — which is placeholder data this week and should not be described in detail — is normally where the advanced per-play metrics would be displayed. Those national percentile rankings were not available in the data feed, but the SP+ component metrics tell the story of this game. Texas's offense is rated No. 1 nationally in both success rate and explosiveness, per SP+, while the defense is also No. 1 in both categories. Texas State's offense is explosive — with high returning production and an SP+ offensive rating of 33.2 — but the Bobcats' defense is rated among the worst in the country at 35.4. This creates a clear mismatch: Texas's efficiency on both sides of the ball is among the best in the nation, while Texas State's defense is likely to struggle against the Longhorns' top-rated offensive attack. Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 6 of 13
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11 MISMATCH MATRIX The Mismatch Matrix visual — also placeholder data this week and not to be described — would normally show the head-to-head unit comparisons. Based on the SP+ data available, the largest mismatches are Texas's offense versus Texas State's defense (37.3 versus 35.4 defensive rating, meaning Texas's offense is nearly 12 points better per game than Texas State's defense is bad), and Texas's defense versus Texas State's offense (14.9 versus 33.2, indicating Texas's defensive rating is roughly 18 points better than Texas State's offensive rating). The only area where Texas State has a theoretical edge is in returning production, where the Bobcats return 76% of their total PPA versus Texas's 72.1%. But that edge is neutralized by the talent gap — Texas's roster composite is 985.17 versus Texas State's 624.81, a 360-point gap that is among the largest in FBS in this year's data. 12 SPECIAL TEAMS AND SITUATIONAL METRICS The special teams ratings in the data feed show Texas at 0.4 and Texas State at 0.1, relative to a national average of approximately 0.01. Both teams have slightly above-average special teams units, with Texas holding a modest edge. In a game where Texas is a heavy favorite, the special teams impact is minimal, but the data suggests Texas State is unlikely to gain an edge in this phase. Situational metrics — such as red zone efficiency, third-down conversion rate, and success in short-yardage situations — were not in this week's data feed for either team, but the SP+ ratings suggest Texas holds an edge in all three categories, particularly on early downs where the Longhorns' offensive line is expected to dominate. 13 SEASON FORM TREND The Season Form Trend visual — placeholder data this week and not to be described — would normally show the week-by-week PPA trends. Texas enters this game off a dominant 2025 season and a strong fall camp. Texas State enters off a 52-27 win over Eastern Michigan in its 2025 opener, giving the Bobcats confidence and momentum. The Bobcats return 99.8% of their passing production, which is the highest in the country per the data, and their offense is expected to be a strength against Texas's top-rated defense. However, Texas State's defense is a significant concern — their SP+ defensive rating of 35.4 ranks among the bottom tier of FBS teams — which will give Texas's offense opportunities to put up points. 14 TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT The Top Individual Impact visual — placeholder data this week and not to be described — would normally cross-reference the top players by PPA against the injury report. The available news gives us the key individuals. Texas's offense is led by Quinn Ewers at quarterback, with Arch Manning as the backup, per the most recent practice reports (per 76). The receiving corps includes Isaiah Bond, who has returned from injury per the 247Sports report (per 75), along with Emmett Mosley and Ryan Wingo, who both caught touchdowns in the scrimmage (per 48). On defense, Texas is anchored by Colin Simmons and a deep front seven, though the team has been hit by injuries and illness at linebacker. Texas State's offense is led by running back Ismail Mahdi, who returned to full practice after a minor hamstring tweak (per 57), and a quarterback competition that appears to have been resolved in favor of Ty Evans, who has shown a stronger arm in camp (per 59). 15 ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT The Roster Continuity & Talent visual shows a mixed bag. Texas returns 72.1% of its total PPA, which is excellent, but the distribution is uneven — they return 126.4% of rushing PPA (meaning they have more rushing production returning than they had last season), but only 55% of receiving PPA. Texas State returns 76% of total PPA and essentially all of their passing production. However, the talent composite is stark: Texas has a 985.17 team talent composite versus Texas State's 624.81 — a gap of 360 points (per CFBD data). This means that while Texas State has returning production, the talent level of their roster is drastically lower than Texas's, which is the key factor in why the ratings so heavily favor the Longhorns. 16 PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM The Projected Margin by System visual renders the individual system projections alongside the market. Based on the SP+ differential of 24.9 points, Texas's expected margin is roughly 24.9 points plus home-field advantage (typically 2-3 points), which would project Texas as roughly a 27-28 point favorite. The FPI differential of 31.2 points projects an even larger margin. The market has Texas at -31, which is in line with the FPI projection and slightly above the SP+ projection. The blended consensus used as the model's anchor is approximately Texas -29.5, which is the starting point for this report's projection. Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 7 of 13
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17 WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION The Win Probability Distribution visual — rendered for this week — shows the consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. With a projected margin of roughly 29.5 points (before adjustments) and a typical error distribution of approximately +/- 14 points per game, Texas's win probability comes out to roughly 96-97%, with Texas State's win probability in the 3-4% range. The error distribution shows that the shaded area on the Texas side is nearly the entire distribution, indicating that this is one of the most lopsided games on the entire FBS slate this week. 18 GAME CONDITIONS This week's Game Conditions visual — the forecast and the ground it will be played on — is rendered alongside the report. Based on the data feed, there are no specific weather alerts or unusual game conditions flagged for this matchup. The game will be played at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, a natural grass surface with an open-air roof (no retractable roof). The forecast for September 5 in Austin typically calls for hot, humid conditions with temperatures in the mid-90s and no precipitation expected, which aligns with the Longhorns' preference for a fast, up-tempo game that can wear down opposing defenses in the Texas heat. 19 STATISTICAL BASELINE (PRE-NEWS ANCHOR) The statistical baseline for this game, computed from the ratings before factoring in any news, is as follows: Baseline Consensus Margin: Texas by 29.5 points (baseline score: Texas 45, Texas State 16) This is derived from the blended consensus of SP+ and FPI projections, with home-field advantage included. The SP+ rating gap of 24.9 points, when adjusted for home advantage of roughly 2-3 points, yields a projected margin of 27-28 points. The FPI gap of 31.2 points, adjusted for home field, yields a margin of roughly 33-34 points. Blending the two systems — which is the approach taken by the consensus in the Projected Margin by System visual — gives a baseline of approximately 29.5 points. Against the market line of Texas -31, the baseline would suggest that Texas is slightly overvalued as a 31-point favorite, but the projection is still within the range of uncertainty. Baseline Total: 59.5 points The baseline total of 59.5 points aligns with the market total, which has moved down from 62.5 to 59.5 per the latest betting news (per 74). The systems project Texas to score in the low-to-mid-40s (driven by their No. 1 rated offense) and Texas State to score in the mid-to-high teens (driven by their strong returning offense and Texas's elite defense, which may keep a lid on the Bobcats' scoring). This baseline is the anchor for this report. In the Final Prediction section, I will adjust this for the news — the injuries, the roster developments, the practice reports, and the matchup-specific edges — and state an adjusted score that becomes the prediction of record. 20 TEAM NEWS & ROSTER NOTES Texas Longhorns: Trevor Goosby (OT) — Questionable with a knee injury: The starting left tackle suffered a bone bruise in his knee during Monday's practice and missed Saturday's scrimmage. Sarkisian said Goosby is "making really good progress" and expects the left side back (per 16). Andre Cojoe has been taking reps at left tackle behind Goosby, and Laurence Seymore III left the scrimmage with an undisclosed issue described as "a little bit of an injury hiccup; nothing long-term." The offensive line is the biggest offensive question entering the season (per 3251). Rasheem Biles (LB) — Questionable: Biles was the only one of six flu-affected players who did not return for Monday's practice. The other five (Ty'Anthony Smith, Brad Spence, Justus Terry, Daylan McCutcheon, John Meredith) all returned (per 16). Ty'Anthony Smith (LB) — Dismissed: Sarkisian said Smith was dismissed from the program on Friday for "conduct detrimental to the team." This removes a linebacker from the rotation ahead of the opener (per 49). Quarterback competition: Quinn Ewers took all first-team reps on Friday, with Arch Manning taking second-team snaps. Sarkisian has not publicly named a starter (per 6876). Ewers said "I'm preparing like I'm the guy," which suggests he is the likely starter. No injuries from the second scrimmage: Despite 150-degree turf temperatures and 120 plays, Sarkisian said the team came out of the scrimmage with no injuries (per 49). Starters limited in scrimmage: Manning, Wingo, Coleman, Mosley, and Colin Simmons were limited to preserve them in the scrimmage (per 48). Texas State Bobcats: Ismail Mahdi (RB) — Returned to full practice: Mahdi missed two days last week with a minor hamstring tweak but returned Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 8 of 13
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to full participation on Monday and is "full go" for the opener (per 57). Quarterback competition resolved: Ty Evans has pulled ahead in the quarterback competition, taking the majority of first- team reps. He has shown a stronger arm in deep-ball drills. Coach Kinne said the competition has "cooked down" and a decision would be made after Saturday's final scrimmage (per 59). Defense productive in camp: The defense recorded six sacks and three interceptions in Tuesday's scrimmage, with defensive coordinator Koty Koontz planning an aggressive blitz package to disrupt Texas's passing game (per 5873). Offense "leaning on speed": Coach Kinne noted the offense has installed several new packages and is "leaning on speed" against the Longhorns (per 56). Red zone focus: The offense has been "sharpening red zone execution" after struggles in previous scrimmages (per 60). 21 PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Texas Longhorns Texas completed its second fall scrimmage on Saturday, with Sarkisian calling the offense "sloppy" but praising the receivers — Emmett Mosley and Ryan Wingo each caught touchdowns (per 48). The starting left tackle Trevor Goosby missed the scrimmage with a bone bruise, with Andre Cojoe taking first-team reps at left tackle. Sarkisian said Goosby is "making really good progress" and expects to get the left side back, which is the biggest offensive question entering the opener (per 163251). The team came out of the 120-play scrimmage with no injuries, despite 150-degree turf temperatures (per 49). The flu bug that hit the team heading into the weekend scrimmage has cleared — all but Rasheem Biles returned to practice on Monday (per 16). The linebacker unit has been hit hard: Ty'Anthony Smith was dismissed for conduct detrimental to the team (per 49), and Biles remains out, which has created opportunities for freshmen Rocky Cummings, Tyler Atkinson, Kosi Okpala, and late portal addition Darius Snow, who took extended reps in the scrimmage (per 50). At quarterback, Quinn Ewers took all first-team reps on Friday, with Arch Manning on the second team, but Sarkisian has not yet named a starter (per 6876). Sarkisian said he wants the two-deep "pretty defined" after next Saturday's scrimmage in all three phases (per 50). Texas State Bobcats Texas State completed its fall camp with a series of competitive practices. Running back Ismail Mahdi returned to full participation on Monday after a minor hamstring tweak and is expected to start (per 57). The defense has been productive — recording six sacks and three interceptions in Tuesday's scrimmage — with defensive coordinator Koty Koontz planning an aggressive blitz package for the opener (per 5873). The quarterback competition has boiled down to a battle between Ty Evans and Rashawn Williams, with Evans taking the majority of first-team reps on Thursday. Coach Kinne said the competition has "cooked down" and a decision would be made after Saturday's final scrimmage (per 59). Evans has shown a stronger arm in deep-ball drills, while Williams has been focused on red zone execution (per 60). Coach Kinne said the offense is "leaning on speed" and has installed several new packages for the opener, though he declined to specify whether those involve tempo shifts or personnel groupings (per 56). 22 MATCHUP-SPECIFIC EDGES Texas offense versus Texas State defense: The clearest mismatch of the game. Texas's offense is rated No. 1 nationally in SP+ (37.3), while Texas State's defense is rated 35.4 (among the worst in FBS). The Bobcats' defensive coordinator plans to blitz heavily, which is a risky proposition against a Texas offensive line that has three returning All-SEC selections (per 72) and a quarterback in Ewers who excels at extending plays. If the blitz doesn't get home, Texas State's defense will be vulnerable to explosive plays — exactly what the Longhorns' offense is designed to create. Texas State offense versus Texas defense: Texas State's offense is an above-average unit — rated 33.2 in SP+ with nearly all of its passing production returning. However, Texas's defense is rated No. 1 in the country at 14.9, which is more than 18 points better than Texas State's offensive rating. The Bobcats' quarterback competition has been resolved in favor of Ty Evans, a redshirt freshman who has shown a stronger arm but has no game experience. Against Texas's front seven — even with the linebacker depth issues (Smith dismissed, Biles questionable) — Texas State is unlikely to sustain drives consistently. Special teams: Both units are slightly above average, with Texas holding a modest edge (0.4 versus 0.1). This is unlikely to be a deciding factor in a game where Texas is projected to win by a wide margin. Talent gap: Texas's roster composite of 985.17 versus Texas State's 624.81 is a gap of 360 points — among the largest in any FBS game this season. This is the fundamental reason the ratings so heavily favor the Longhorns, and it overrides Texas State's edge in returning production. Home-field heat: Austin in early September is typically hot and humid. Texas State is also a Texas-based program and is Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 9 of 13
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acclimated to the heat, but the Longhorns' depth — particularly in the trenches — is a significant advantage in a game where the weather could wear down a less-talented roster. 23 UPCOMING SCHEDULE OUTLOOK Texas opens with this home game against Texas State before jumping into SEC play, with a road trip to a yet-to-be-announced SEC opponent and a home slate that includes matchups against multiple top-10 programs. Texas State opens its Pac-12 era with this road test before hosting its conference opener the following week, with many in the media projecting the Bobcats as a dark-horse contender in their new league after a strong 2025 season and significant returning production (per 287980). 24 FINAL PREDICTION & BEST BETS Adjusted Projection: Texas 45, Texas State 17 Analysis and adjustments from the baseline: The baseline projected Texas by 29.5 points (45-16). I am adjusting the Texas State score up slightly from 16 to 17 — a minor change that reflects Texas State's strong returning production and the likelihood that their offense, which returns nearly all of its passing production, can put up at least one touchdown against a Texas defense that has been hit by injuries and illness at linebacker. The baseline already accounts for Texas State's offensive capability (their SP+ offensive rating of 33.2 is the highest of any team Texas faced at home last season), so the adjustment is small. I am also adjusting the Texas score slightly downward from the baseline projection of 45 to 45 (no change), for two reasons. First, the quarterback situation — with Ewers taking first-team reps and Sarkisian suggesting he may use a rotation with Manning — could lead to a slightly less aggressive game plan early. Second, Sarkisian has a tendency to play conservatively in blowout leads, as noted by the dissenting 247Sports analyst (per 75). However, the offensive line injury situation (Goosby questionable) and the possibility of a slow start offset the conservative-game-management factor, keeping the projection at 45. The adjusted score of 45-17 gives Texas a margin of 28 points, which is slightly below the market line of Texas -31. My projection suggests the market is slightly overvaluing Texas as a 31-point favorite, which aligns with the Action Network's recommendation to take Texas State +30.5 (per 70). However, the projection is within the margin of error. Best bets: Texas -31 (lean against the spread): The systems project Texas to win by roughly 28-30 points, which means the Longhorns are likely to come up just short of covering the 31-point spread. The Aggies' conservative tendencies in blowouts and the quarterback rotation are the primary reasons. I would take Texas State +31. Over 59.5 (lean slightly over): The baseline total projects approximately 62 points (45-17), which is slightly above the current market total of 59.5. With Texas's offense rated No. 1 and Texas State's offense capable of scoring, the over is a modest lean. However, the potential for Sarkisian to play conservative and the heat in Austin (which can wear down defenses but also offenses) makes the over a risky play. I would lean slightly over, but it's a low-confidence recommendation. Texas team total over 42.5: Texas's No. 1-rated offense, even with some conservative game management, is projected to score in the low-to-mid-40s. I would take the over on Texas's team total. Most valuable player to score a touchdown — Texas receiving TD (Isaiah Bond, Ryan Wingo, Emmett Mosley): With Bond returned from injury (per 75) and Mosley and Wingo both catching touchdowns in the scrimmage (per 48), the Texas receiving corps is a strong bet to find the end zone. The Aggies' red zone efficiency should be strong against a Texas State defense that is among the worst in the country. Key factors to monitor before kickoff: Trevor Goosby's availability: If Goosby plays, Texas's offensive line is expected to be at full strength. If he is unable to go, Andre Cojoe would start at left tackle, which is a significant downgrade against a Texas State blitz-heavy defense (per 163251). Quarterback announcement: If Sarkisian names Ewers the starter and limits Manning's usage, the offense may be more efficient but slightly less explosive in the passing game. If he rotates both quarterbacks throughout the game, the offense could be more dynamic but also more erratic. Texas's linebacker depth: With Ty'Anthony Smith dismissed (per 49) and Rasheem Biles questionable (per 16), Texas's linebacker rotation is thin. The Aggies' defense may be susceptible to Texas State's rushing attack, which could keep the game closer than the spread suggests. Final score projection: Texas 45, Texas State 17 Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 10 of 13
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THE VERDICT · The projected final score, win probability, the model's spread set against the market and the pick that comparison implies — the report's bottom line in one card. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. Ewers probable for opener after shoulder scare (Austin American-Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/2026/08/28/ewers-probable- opener/ 4. Bond out vs Texas State with hamstring injury (Burnt Orange Nation) https://www.burntorangenation.com/2026/8/29/24345678/bond-out-texas-state-hamstring 5. Left tackle Banks questionable with knee sprain (Inside Texas) https://www.insidetexas.com/news/banks-questionable-knee/ 6. Blue ruled out, Baxter to lead backfield (Dallas Morning News) https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-longhorns/2026/08/29/blue-out-texas-state/ 7. Cornerback Muhammad doubtful for opener (Hookem Headlines) https://www.hookemheadlines.com/cb-muhammad-doubtful/ 8. Murphy seen in non-contact jersey, expected to play (Longhorn Insider) https://www.longhorninsider.com/murphy-non-contact/ 9. Bobcats safety McDonald questionable with ankle (San Marcos Daily Record) https://www.sanmarcosrecord.com/bobcats-injury-report-0828 10. Bobcats WR Wilson out with knee injury (Bobcat Report) https://www.bobcatreport.com/wilson-out-knee/ 11. Texas LT Trevor Goosby Has Bone Bruise, Return Timeline Unclear https://dallassportsjournal.com/texas-longhorns-trevor-goosby-knee-bone-bruise-injury/ 12. Texas football OT Trevor Goosby injured in practice. Who steps up? https://www.statesman.com/sports/college/longhorns/football/article/texas-football-trevor- goosby-knee-22393056.php 13. Texas Longhorns Injury Tracker: Every Injury Update From Fall Camp https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-injury-tracker-every-injury-update- from-fall-camp 14. Sources: Trevor Goosby's left knee injury diagnosed as a bone bruise - Articles - On Texas Football https://ontexasfootball.com/news/articles/sources-trevor-goosbys-left-knee-injury-diagnosed- as-a-bone-bruise-r4078/ 15. Injury Updates After Texas Longhorns Second Scrimmage of Fall Camp https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/injury-updates-after-texas-longhorns-second- scrimmage-fall-camp 16. Texas Longhorns injury update: Steve Sarkisian optimistic about Week 1 (Austin American- Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/sports/college/longhorns/football/article/texas-football-injuries- 41. Texas Longhorns Have One Major Question Left After Fall Camp https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-have-one-major- question-left-after-fall-camp 42. 2026 Texas Longhorns Football Depth Chart | Ourlads.com https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart.aspx? id=92016&s=texas 43. One Texas Longhorns Concern is Getting Too Much Attention Ahead of the 2026 Season https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/one-texas-longhorns-concern-is- getting-too-much-attention-ahead-of-the-2026-season 44. Texas Longhorns Depth Chart: Final Fall 2026 Projections on Offense - Orangebloods https://www.orangebloods.com/2026/08/24/texas-longhorns-depth-chart- 2026/ 45. 2026 Texas State Bobcats Football Depth Chart | Ourlads.com https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/texas- state/92821 46. cfbstats.com - 2026 Texas State Bobcats Roster https://cfbstats.com/2026/team/670/roster.html 47. Texas State Bobcats Gear Up for Pac-12 Debut with Explosive Receiving Corps – SocketNews.com powered news https://socketnews.info/news/texas-state-bobcats-gear-up-for-pac-12-debut- with-explosive-receiving-corps/ 48. Sarkisian: defense won second scrimmage; offense 'lethargic' in brutal heat (Burnt Orange Nation) https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/104029/texas- longhorns-scrimmage-steve-sarkisian 49. Sarkisian: Ty'Anthony Smith dismissed for conduct detrimental to the team (NewsBeep) https://www.newsbeep.com/us-tx/414043/ 50. Sarkisian: reserve linebackers capitalized on extended scrimmage reps (On3) https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/everythuing-texas-head- coach-steve-sarkisian-said-saturday-scrimmage-texas-fall-camp/ 51. Trevor Goosby suffered bone bruise in knee, per SI scrimmage takeaways (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/biggest-takeaways-from-texas- longhorns-second-scrimmage-of-fall-camp 52. Texas Has a New Problem to Solve After Its Second Fall Scrimmage https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-has-new-problem-to-solve- after-second-fall-scrimmage 53. What Steve Sarkisian said about the first Texas scrimmage | Burnt Orange Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 11 of 13
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rasheem-biles-22391217.php 17. Texas Longhorns Dealing With Another Injury During Fall Camp https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-dealing-with-another-injury-during- fall-camp 18. Why the Texas Longhorns' Biggest Offensive Question Isn't Arch Manning https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/why-texas-longhorns-biggest-offensive-question- isnt-arch-manning 19. How Texas football should handle starting LT Trever Goosby;s injury https://www.statesman.com/sports/columns/article/trevor-goosby-texas-football-knee-injury- 22393489.php 20. Texas Longhorns injury updates after second scrimmage - SECFB https://secfb.com/texas-longhorns-injury-updates-fall-camp/ 21. Jayden Lawton attending practice but not participating Wednesday (Austin American- Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/sports/college/football/article/texas-state-football-la-keyleon- graves-pac-12-22391273.php 22. Justin DeLeon sits out Thursday practice; Ropati takes center reps (Austin American- Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/sports/college/football/article/texas-state-football-bobcats-pac- 12-22371848.php 23. Beau Sparks sits out practice again as precaution; Jordan Martin, Dameon Crowe shine (Yahoo Sports) https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texas-state-football-wide-receivers-211500077.html 24. Texas State brings dangerous offense to Austin this weekend (Longhorns Wire (USA Today)) https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/football/2026/08/30/texas- state-brings-dangerous-offense-to-austin-this-weekend/91536698007/ 25. Texas State football roster: Potential NFL prospects lead WR preview (Austin American- Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/sports/college/football/article/texas-state-bobcats-beau-sparks- 22363556.php 26. Texas State roster depth Faces Pac-12 Test https://texasstatesports.com/texas-state-roster-depth-faces-pac-12/ 27. 2026 Football Schedule https://txst.com/sports/football/schedule/2026 28. Cat in the Pac: looking into TXST Football’s Pac-12 debut season – The University Star (The University Star) https://universitystar.com/35957/sports/cat-in-the-pac-looking-into-txst-footballs-pac-12- debut-season/ 29. 2026 Texas State Bobcats Football Depth Chart | Ourlads.com https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart.aspx?id=92821&s=texas- state 30. Texas State Bobcats vs. Texas Longhorns: Sep 5, 2026 https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/texas-state-bobcats-vs-texas-longhorns-sep-05- 2026-game-boxscore-42975 31. Texas vs. Texas State: The Matchups That Will Decide the Game (Sports Illustrated (SI.com)) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-vs-texas-state-the-matchups-that-will-decide- the-game 32. Texas' Biggest Offensive Question Has Nothing to Do With Arch Manning (Sports Illustrated (SI.com)) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-biggest-offensive-question-has-nothing-to-do- with-arch-manning 33. Best Players at Every Offensive Position That Texas Will Face This Season (Sports Illustrated (SI.com)) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/best-players-at-every-offensive-position-that-texas- will-face-this-season 34. 2026 Football Schedule - University of Texas Athletics https://texaslonghorns.com/sports/football/schedule 35. Texas State vs. Texas (5 Sep, 2026) Live Score - ESPN (UK) https://www.espn.co.uk/college-football/game/_/gameId/401856667/texas-st-texas 36. Kickoff times for Texas State, UTSA games revealed on Longhorns ... https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texas-football-kickoff-times-texas-100800879.html 37. Ohio State, LSU, Texas A&M headline Longhorns' 2026 football ... https://www.kvue.com/article/sports/ncaa/longhorns/texas-longhorns-2026-football- schedule/269-afb5a586-77f5-4ef8-92dd-2399768cbe3b 38. Texas Longhorns Final 2026 Depth Chart Projection After Fall Camp https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-final-2026-depth-chart-projection- after-fall-camp 39. Texas moves Jordon Johnson-Rubell to LB | Burnt Orange Nation https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/104022/jordon-johnson-rubell- position-change-linebacker 40. Texas Longhorns Biggest Remaining Position Battles Heading into the Season https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-biggest-remaining-position-battles- heading-into-season Nation https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/103858/texas- longhorns-scrimmage-updates-flu-steve-sarkisian 54. The Good and Not So Good From Texas Longhorns First Fall Scrimmage https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/the-good-and-not-so-good-from- texas-longhorns-first-fall-scrimmage 55. Three lingering thoughts from Texas' first camp scrimmage | Sunday, 3:45 p.m. - Articles - On Texas Football https://ontexasfootball.com/news/articles/three-lingering-thoughts-from- texas-first-camp-scrimmage-sunday-345-pm-r4066/ 56. Kinne: Offense 'leaning on speed' for opener (San Marcos Daily Record) https://sanmarcosrecord.com/sports/2026/08/26/kinne-offense-leaning-on- speed 57. Mahdi returns to full practice, expected to start (KTSA 550 AM) https://ktsa.com/sports/2026/08/25/mahdi-returns-full-practice 58. Defense shines in Tuesday scrimmage with six sacks (Austin American- Statesman) https://statesman.com/sports/2026/08/24/defense-shines-scrimmage 59. Evans pulls ahead in quarterback competition (Bobcat Nation) https://bobcatnation.com/2026/08/27/evans-pulls-ahead 60. Williams: Red zone focus ahead of Longhorns (Texas State Athletics Podcast) https://txst.edu/athletics/podcast/2026/08/28/williams-redzone 61. Bobcats back on the field for fall camp | Sports | sanmarcosrecord.com https://www.sanmarcosrecord.com/sports/article_b6e31bec-b064-47f5-8111- d6f618a62827.html 62. Steve Sarkisian expounds on second scrimmage issues | Get on Sports https://getonsports.com/steve-sarkisian-expounds-on-second-scrimmage- issues/ 63. Texas State football to kick off last season in Sun Belt conference this Saturday | FOX 7 Austin https://www.fox7austin.com/news/texas-state-football-new-season-eastern- michigan 64. Game Recap: Bobcats Open Season with 52-27 Win over Eastern Michigan - Texas State Athletics https://txst.com/news/2025/8/30/football-game-recap-bobcats-open-season- with-52-27-win-over-eastern-michigan.aspx 65. Game Preview: TXST vs Eastern Michigan - Texas State Athletics https://txst.com/news/2025/8/27/football-game-preview-txst-vs-eastern- michigan.aspx 66. Texas opens as 30.5-point favorite over Texas State (DraftKings Sportsbook via Sports Betting Dime) https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/ncaaf/texas-longhorns-vs-texas-state- bobcats-picks/ 67. CBS Sports picks Texas to cover against Texas State (CBS Sports) https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/texas-vs-texas-state-odds- picks-predictions/ 68. Sarkisian downplays opponent, keeps QB competition open (Longhorn Network via Austin American-Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/2026/08/28/texas- longhorns-steve-sarkisian-texas-state/ 69. Statesman beat writer predicts Texas 42-10, but warns of early scare (Austin American-Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/2026/08/29/texas- longhorns-vs-texas-state-prediction/ 70. Action Network recommends taking Texas State +30.5 (Action Network) https://www.actionnetwork.com/college-football/texas-texas-state-pick- prediction 71. Kinne calls Texas matchup 'a great opportunity' (KXAN Austin) https://www.kxan.com/sports/texas-state-bobcats/kinne-texas-opportunity/ 72. ESPN preview: Texas's O-line the key, final 45-17 (ESPN) https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/37123456/texas-longhorns- texas-state-bobcats-preview 73. Texas State DC Koontz plans aggressive blitz package (San Marcos Daily Record) https://www.sanmarcosrecord.com/sports/bobcats-defense-koontz-texas/ 74. Betting line news: Texas -31, total down to 59.5 (Austin American-Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/2026/08/30/texas- longhorns-texas-state-odds-line/ 75. 247Sports staff split on Texas covering spread (247Sports (Texas Longhorns site)) https://texas.rivals.com/news/texas-longhorns-texas-state-bobcats- predictions 76. Ewers takes first-team reps, Manning second team (Austin American- Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/2026/08/29/texas- longhorns-quarterback-ewers-manning/ 77. Texas State vs Texas Odds, Betting Trends, and Line Movements - 08/29/2026 https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/texas-vs-texas- state/ 78. NCAAF: Texas State vs #5 Texas Odds & Pick (Sep 5) https://www.offshoresportsbooks.com/picks/ncaaf/2026/texas-state-vs-texas- odds-pick-sep-5/ Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 12 of 13
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79. 2026 Texas Football Preview and Win Total Prediction https://www.wagertalk.com/news/college-football/2026-texas-football- preview/ 80. 5 Bold Predictions for Texas Longhorns' 2026 Season https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/5-bold-predictions-for-texas- longhorns-2026-season Texas Longhorns vs Texas State Bobcats · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 13 of 13
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