Vanderbilt vs NC State
Game played Sep 19, 2026 · Published September 19, 2026 at 11:34 AM · 16 pages
Projected score, total and win probability for Vanderbilt vs NC State, priced against the betting line — with injuries, form and the key statistical mismatches.
Read this report as text The same 16 pages, for screen readers and searching
Page 1
A F P L N A C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L M A T C H U P R E P O R T V S Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D S E P T E M B E R 1 9 , 2 0 2 6 1 1 : 1 0 A M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Matchup Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 SP Ratings 04 ELO Ratings 05 FPI Ratings 06 SRS Ratings 07 Advanced Team Stats 08 Returning Production 09 Team Talent 10 Team PPA 11 Player PPA 12 Team Season Stats 13 Adjusted Team Metrics 14 Vanderbilt Commodores Injury Updates 15 NC State Wolfpack Injury Updates 16 Key Player Matchups 17 Vanderbilt Commodores Roster Updates 18 NC State Wolfpack Roster Updates 19 Vanderbilt Commodores Practice and Scrimmage Updates 20 NC State Wolfpack Practice and Scrimmage Updates 21 Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack Media Matchup Analysis 22 Game Conditions and Betting Context 23 Final Prediction
Page 2
01 MATCHUP OVERVIEW Vanderbilt hosts NC State in a Week 3 nonconference clash at FirstBank Stadium, with kickoff at 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network 50. Both teams arrive at a genuine inflection point. The Commodores are 2-0 after wins over Austin Peay (28-9) and Delaware (35- 26), but they just benched a veteran quarterback for a five-star true freshman, and their defense lost a starter to a season-ending injury 4. NC State is 1-1 in the strangest way possible — a lifeless 34-8 loss at Virginia followed by a 73-0 demolition of Richmond where the Wolfpack set stadium records with 734 total yards and 428 rushing yards 45. The series record is tight: Vanderbilt leads 2-1, with the Commodores winning a 7-0 shutout in 1946 and a 38-24 Music City Bowl win in 2012, while NC State took the 2016 Independence Bowl 41-17 [data]. This is the first meeting since that 2016 bowl, and it carries real weight — Vanderbilt faces Auburn, Georgia and Ole Miss in the next three weeks, while NC State needs a Power Four road win to prove the Richmond explosion wasn't a mirage 34. The home sideline calls this an identity test before SEC play begins 3. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like- for-like from one game to the next. GAME CONDITIONS · The forecast and the ground it will be played on: temperature, wind and precipitation beside the stadium's surface, roof, capacity and elevation. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 2 of 16
Page 3
POWER RATING DASHBOARD · SP+, FPI and Elo side by side. SP+ and FPI are points-above-average ratings; the SP+ defensive rating counts down, so a lower bar is the better defense. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 3 of 16
Page 4
EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always the better number regardless of which way the raw stat runs. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 4 of 16
Page 5
MISMATCH MATRIX · Each offense measured directly against the defense it will face. Bars show the percentile gap; the longer the bar, the wider that specific unit-vs-unit edge. SEASON FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added. This is where you see a team trending up or falling apart, which season averages hide. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 5 of 16
Page 6
TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle, ranked by total PPA. Cross-reference this against the injury and roster sections. ROSTER CONTINUITY & TALENT · How much production each team returned from last season, alongside the recruiting talent composite. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 6 of 16
Page 7
PROJECTED MARGIN BY SYSTEM · What each rating system independently projects, plus the market line and the blended consensus used as the model's anchor. WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · The consensus margin spread across the historical error distribution for college football projections. The shaded area on each side is that team's win probability. 03 SP RATINGS This is a power rating expressing points per game relative to an average FBS team, where the overall rating is the net of offense and defense. Vanderbilt's overall SP+ rating is 10.1, against an NC State mark of 8.0 — a 2.1-point edge to the home side 1. The offensive split is nearly even: Vanderbilt at 33.3, NC State at 32.0 1. The defensive values are identical at 23.7 for both teams, a meaningful number because a lower defensive rating is better — meaning these two defenses are rated as exact statistical equals by SP+ 1. Special teams slightly favor Vanderbilt at 0.6 versus NC State's -0.4 1. The headline here is the defensive symmetry. SP+ sees two above-average but not elite defenses that grade out identically, which means the game gets decided on the margins — turnovers, field position, third-down execution. The offensive gap is just 1.3 points, essentially a coin flip in SP+'s eyes. That makes the special teams edge (1.0 point) nearly as large as the offensive gap, and it should not be dismissed: Vanderbilt has two punt-return touchdowns through two games 1. In a projected close game, Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 7 of 16
Page 8
that return game is a genuine separator. The fact that NC State's defensive rating matches Vanderbilt's is a warning against assuming the Wolfpack's 73-0 shutout was purely a Richmond artifact — the underlying rating says NC State's defense is real. 04 ELO RATINGS Elo is a head-to-head power rating that accumulates from game results, with a larger number being better. Vanderbilt enters at 1746, NC State at 1509 — a gap of 237 points 1. At the standard conversion of roughly 25 Elo points per point of margin, that translates to a nearly 9.5-point edge for the Commodores before home field is added [data]. This is the largest discrepancy of the four rating systems and the one most harsh on NC State. The Elo gap is heavily influenced by scheduling and recency. NC State's season-opening loss at Virginia dinged the Wolfpack, while Vanderbilt's two wins — even against Austin Peay and Delaware — inflated the Commodores' rating. Elo has no concept of opponent quality beyond win/loss, which is exactly why it diverges so sharply from the market here. The market has Vanderbilt favored by only 3-3.5 points 276, so Elo's 9.5-point edge is the outlier. Treat Elo as the ceiling of Vanderbilt's realistic margin, not the expectation. The takeaway is that Elo and the betting market disagree by roughly six points on the size of Vanderbilt's edge, and the truth almost certainly sits between them. 05 FPI RATINGS FPI measures points above average against an average opponent, with efficiency sub-scores. Vanderbilt's FPI is 6.821, NC State's is 2.441 — a 4.38-point edge to the Commodores 1. The efficiency breakdown is revealing: Vanderbilt's overall efficiency (61.261) actually grades worse than NC State's (82.039), but the Commodores are carried by a defensive efficiency of 77.8 versus NC State's 75.232 1. Offensively, this is a major gap: Vanderbilt's offensive efficiency is 40.143 against NC State's 72.701 1. That offensive efficiency gap is the single most important FPI number in this game. FPI's efficiency index — a regression-based measure of how well a team plays independent of opponent — thinks NC State's offense is dramatically better than Vanderbilt's. This is the system's way of saying the Richmond explosion wasn't meaningless, and that the Commodores' offensive production against Austin Peay and Delaware is being discounted. Yet FPI still favors Vanderbilt overall because of the combination of defense, special teams (54.418 vs 72.665 is actually an NC State edge there) and schedule strength. Critically, FPI ranks Vanderbilt's remaining schedule as the 15th-toughest in the country, while NC State's is the 68th-toughest 1 — a reminder that the Commodores' SEC slate looms, and that this nonconference game is their last chance to bank a win before the murderers' row. 06 SRS RATINGS No SRS data was available for either team in this feed. 07 ADVANCED TEAM STATS Success rate measures the percentage of plays that gain adequate yardage for the down-and-distance; explosiveness weights big plays per attempt; PPA is expected points added on a per-play basis; line yards isolate offensive line performance on rushes; havoc rate tracks tackles for loss, passes broken up and forced fumbles per play; points per scoring opportunity measures red- zone and short-field conversion efficiency. All figures are expressed as national percentiles, where a higher percentile is better unless marked otherwise 1. METRIC VANDERBILT NC STATE PERCENTILE (VU) PERCENTILE (NCSU) Off. PPA/play 0.077 0.313 26.8 76.8 Off. Success Rate 42.2% 52.5% 37.7 81.2 Off. Explosiveness 1.079 1.215 14.5 46.4 Off. Line Yards 2.97 3.73 38.4 86.2 Off. Pts/Opportunity 3.15 6.00 21.0 93.5 Def. PPA/play -0.119 0.001 79.7 56.5 Def. Success Rate 32.8% 38.5% 79.0 49.3 Def. Explosiveness 1.326 1.069 28.3 80.4 Def. Line Yards 2.43 2.62 72.5 56.5 Def. Havoc 25.9% 15.6% 94.2 48.6 Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 8 of 16
Page 9
The Efficiency Profile chart makes the disparity unmistakable. NC State's offense is elite on almost every axis — 81st percentile in success rate, 86th in line yards, 93.5th in points per scoring opportunity — and that dominance traces directly to the ground game. The Wolfpack average 3.73 line yards and a 58.5 percent rushing success rate, and they scored six points per scoring opportunity, a top-tier mark 1. Vanderbilt's offense is the reverse: 26.8th percentile in PPA/play, 14.5th in explosiveness, 21st in points per opportunity. The Commodores are a plodding, inefficient offense that converts availability into points at a poor rate. The defensive side flips the script. Vanderbilt's defense is a havoc machine — 94.2nd percentile overall, with a 17.2 percent front- seven havoc rate — and stops success at an 80th-percentile clip. NC State's defense is solid against the run (56.5th percentile in line yards) but merely average creating havoc. The Mismatch Matrix shows the decisive unit-vs-unit pairing: NC State's 86th- percentile run-blocking front against Vanderbilt's 72.5th-percentile run defense is a push, but NC State's offense as a whole against Vanderbilt's defense is the one matchup where the Wolfpack hold a clear edge on raw production. 08 RETURNING PRODUCTION Returning production measures what share of last season's total PPA, usage and statistical output each team brought back. Vanderbilt returned just 35.4 percent of its total PPA — 17.8% of passing PPA, 50.1% of receiving, 50.1% of rushing 1. NC State returned 59.9% of total PPA, including a massive 93.1% of passing PPA and 101.5% of rushing PPA (meaning they returned more rushing production than they produced last year, due to transfer additions) 1. The roster continuity chart drives home how different these two rebuilds are. NC State is a veteran operation that brought back the vast majority of its passing game — CJ Bailey's receivers, the offensive line, and a running game that actually gained production via the portal. Vanderbilt is essentially rebuilding its offense from scratch: just 8.7% of last season's passing PPA returned, which is a roster that lost its quarterback production and is now handing the keys to a true freshman. This is the structural backdrop for everything else in this report. NC State's continuity is why FPI rates its offense 72.7 in efficiency while Vanderbilt sits at 40.1. The Wolfpack are running the same offense with the same driver; Vanderbilt is running a new offense with a rookie at the wheel. 09 TEAM TALENT Talent is the 247Sports composite recruiting score, measuring the average blue-chip quality of each roster. NC State holds a clear edge at 757.14 against Vanderbilt's 727.39 1. That 30-point gap is roughly a full tier of recruiting — the difference between a roster that regularly signs top-40 classes and one that scrapes the bottom of the Power Four. It shows in the trenches: NC State's offensive line, fortified by transfers like Jimarion McCrimon (East Carolina) and Daniel Cruz (Texas), is the 86th-percentile run-blocking unit in the country 1. Vanderbilt's defensive front, meanwhile, just lost Aaron Bryant for the season and is relying on transfers like Issa Ouattara to hold up 421. Talent says NC State should win the line of scrimmage in the run game, and the advanced stats agree. Yet Vanderbilt's defensive havoc rate (94th percentile) is the great equalizer — havoc is a talent-adjacent skill, and the Commodores have been creating chaos at an elite rate despite the lower composite. 10 TEAM PPA Team PPA is predicted points added per game, plotted week by week to show offensive and defensive trajectory. Vanderbilt's offense posted a strong 0.26 PPA against Austin Peay, then collapsed to -0.08 against Delaware 1. The defense, meanwhile, improved from -0.03 to -0.18 1. NC State's offense was atrocious in the opener (-0.31 PPA against Virginia) before exploding to 0.76 against Richmond 1. The Wolfpack defense mirrored that arc: 0.27 in the opener, then a dominant -0.38 against Richmond 1. The Season Form Trend chart shows two teams moving in opposite directions. Vanderbilt's offense is trending down — the Delaware game was a step backward, which is precisely why Clark Lea made the quarterback change 31. NC State's offense is trending sharply up, though the Richmond opponent is the obvious caveat. The concerning part for the Wolfpack is the lack of a middle data point: they have gone from FBS road struggle to FCS home blowout, and there is no evidence yet they can be the latter against a Power Four defense. Vanderbilt's defense, by contrast, has been consistently negative (good) across both games, which is the most reliable data in this entire section. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 9 of 16
Page 10
11 PLAYER PPA Player PPA shows individual predicted points added. For Vanderbilt, Jared Curtis leads the team at 19.45 total PPA despite starting zero games — he produced 0.474 PPA per play, with a remarkable 1.195 PPA per rush and 12.6 total PPA on third down 1. Blaze Berlowitz, the now-benched starter, has just 5.98 total PPA 1. The tight end tandem of Jayvontay Conner (7.12) and Walter Taylor (2.60) are the only other significant producers, while running back Sedrick Alexander (3.94) is a positive rusher but a negative receiver 1. For NC State, CJ Bailey leads at 18.33 total PPA with a 0.481 passing PPA 1. Receiver Keenan Jackson (9.997) is the downfield weapon — 2.198 PPA on third down — while Joshisa Trader (5.37) and tight end Preston Douglas (6.19) provide secondary options 1. The running back room is absurdly deep: Jayden Scott (4.99), Davion Gause (4.72), Dylan McCoy (4.59), Jonathan Paylor (2.02) and Isiah Jones (1.15) all contribute 1. The Top Individual Impact chart puts Curtis's production into stark context: a "backup" quarterback has produced more than three times the PPA of the man he replaced, on dramatically fewer snaps. That is the statistical case for the quarterback change. But it is also the case for caution — Curtis's production came in relief situations, often against tired defenses late in games. Now he faces the 49th-percentile havoc defense and a coordinator who will scheme pressure at him 24. NC State's distribution is the opposite of Vanderbilt's star-reliant profile: the Wolfpack spread production across a half-dozen skill players, which makes them harder to game-plan against. Bailey's ability to distribute to Jackson, Trader and Douglas, plus the five-headed running back committee, means Vanderbilt's defense has to account for the entire field. 12 TEAM SEASON STATS The raw counting stats tell a complementary story to the advanced numbers. Vanderbilt has 735 total yards (287 rushing, 448 passing) against 516 allowed, with 11 sacks and 16 tackles for loss 1. NC State has 902 total yards (504 rushing, 398 passing) against 523 allowed, with 9 rushing touchdowns and 4 sacks 1. NC State converts 52.2% of third downs; Vanderbilt converts 33.3% 1. But the turnover and discipline numbers are where this gets interesting: Vanderbilt has committed just 1 turnover while forcing 2, but has been penalized 15 times for 109 yards, while NC State has just 6 penalties for 53 yards 1. The penalty disparity is a quiet but significant edge for NC State. Vanderbilt's 15 penalties in two games — including 109 penalty yards — is the kind of self-inflicted damage that keeps drives alive for the opponent and stalls your own. Against a team that punishes mistakes, that is a liability. The sack numbers are the other separator: Vanderbilt's 11 sacks and 16 TFL in two games confirm the defensive havoc story, while NC State's 4 sacks allowed against its 3 sacks recorded shows a pocket that is vulnerable. The turnover numbers are perversely good for Vanderbilt — just 1 giveaway in 135 offensive plays — but that is partly because their offensive style is conservative and run-heavy. The deeper issue is that Vanderbilt's raw yardage totals (735) are inflated by two games against lesser opponents, while NC State's 902 yards came against one FCS opponent after a brutal opener. The counting stats agree with the advanced metrics on the core conclusion: NC State is more explosive and more efficient; Vanderbilt is more chaotic defensively and more disciplined with the ball. 13 ADJUSTED TEAM METRICS No adjusted team metrics data was available in this feed. 14 VANDERBILT COMMODORES INJURY UPDATES Live web research: PLAYER POS STATUS DETAIL Brian Allen Jr. EDGE Probable Practiced Thursday, listed as probable for NC State after being questionable Tuesday with an ankle injury 3 Aaron Bryant DL Out for season ACL injury suffered in the Delaware game, will have knee surgery 4 Cole Spence TE Out Lower-body injury, week-to-week, could return vs Auburn 4 Jaylin Lackey CB Out Persistent hamstring issue, week-to-week 4 Jamison Curtis LB Out Soft-tissue injury, week-to-week 4 Injury feed: PLAYER POS STATUS DETAIL Brian Allen Jr. EDGE Probable Practiced Thursday, progressed from questionable to probable in 48 hours 3 Jaylin Lackey CB Out Hamstring, will not play vs NC State 4 Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 10 of 16
Page 11
Jamison Curtis LB Out Soft-tissue injury, week-to-week 4 Cole Spence TE Out Lower-body injury, missed both games, no return date against NC State 4 Aaron Bryant DL Out for season ACL tear, season-ending knee surgery 4 The injury ledger is a true mixed bag for Vanderbilt. The good news is concentrated on the edge: Brian Allen Jr., the Iowa transfer who has been a key pass-rush piece, is probable after practicing Thursday 35. That gives the Commodores a desperately needed disruption option against CJ Bailey. The bad news is everywhere else. Aaron Bryant's ACL tear removes a starter from the defensive line rotation 47. Cole Spence's continued absence strips a tight end target from an offense that already ranks 26th percentile in PPA/play 14. And the combined losses of Jaylin Lackey and Jamison Curtis deepen the secondary and linebacker depth issues 4. When the best news on your injury report is "probable" for a player who was questionable 48 hours earlier, that is not a healthy team. The defensive front is thinner, the secondary is thinner, and the passing-game tight end depth is gone. Against an NC State offense that just put up 734 yards, this is the wrong week to be shorthanded. 15 NC STATE WOLFPACK INJURY UPDATES Live web research: PLAYER POS STATUS DETAIL AJ Richardson LB Out for season Torn bicep suffered in the opener at Virginia; team captain, recovery expected 4-6 months 1317 Spike Sowells Jr. C Expected to play Left the Richmond game early with an injury; Doeren expects him ready Saturday 14 Nick Konieczynski K Questionable/Unknown Injured in the Virginia game; added former soccer player Drew Lovelace 14 Injury feed: PLAYER POS STATUS DETAIL Spike Sowells Jr. C Expected to play Depth chart still lists him as starter; Doeren fully expects him to be ready 14 Nick Konieczynski K Questionable/Unknown Kickoff specialist, listed with an OR against Drew Lovelace, availability unknown 14 AJ Richardson LB Out for season Torn bicep, out for the season, 4-6 month recovery 13 NC State's injury situation is considerably cleaner than Vanderbilt's, though not without its own issues. The big loss is AJ Richardson — the starting WILL linebacker and a team captain, gone for the season with a torn bicep 1317. That explains the depth chart move naming Bailey Benson the outright starter at WILL 14. The good news is on the offensive line: Spike Sowells Jr., the starting center, is expected to play after leaving the Richmond game early, and his return stabilizes a front that will face Vanderbilt's havoc-heavy defensive line 146. The kickoff specialist situation is a genuine unknown — Nick Konieczynski's availability is unclear, which could push a converted soccer player, Drew Lovelace, into a prominent role 14. That is a small but real special teams question mark in a game where Vanderbilt has two punt-return touchdowns. The Richardson loss is significant for the run defense — he was the Will linebacker against an SEC-style rushing attack — but the overall depth chart changes suggest the Wolfpack have adjusted, and the lineup is otherwise intact. 16 KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS Junior Sherrill vs. Brian Nelson II: The Vanderbilt Hustler identifies this as the marquee wide receiver-cornerback battle 20. Sherrill is coming off five catches for 94 yards against Delaware, including a 35-yard third-down grab, but he also has four drops on the season 20. Nelson, the NC State corner, broke up a would-be third-down catch against Richmond 20. Given that Jared Curtis will be making his first start, Sherrill is his most reliable downfield threat — but PPA numbers show Sherrill is feast-or-famine: 1.803 PPA on third down but negative on first down 1. If Nelson takes away Sherrill, Curtis loses his primary release valve. Nick Rinaldi vs. Duke Scott: Inside Pack Sports frames this as the key run-game battle 21. Rinaldi has 136 career tackles, 12 sacks and 17.5 TFL, and is on pace for a career-best season 21. Scott touched the ball just nine times against Richmond but produced 128 yards and two touchdowns 23. Vanderbilt's run defense was top-six in the SEC last season 23. This is the collision of NC State's 86th-percentile rushing offense against a run defense that SP+ rates as average but that has been creating havoc at a 94th-percentile rate 1. If Rinaldi and the front seven bottle up Scott, NC State loses its best offensive dimension. Jared Curtis vs. Popo Aguirre / Harvey Dyson III: SI's NC State coverage says the Wolfpack defense plans to make Curtis's debut miserable, with captain Popo Aguirre and Harvey Dyson III among the players expected to bring pressure 2324. Vanderbilt's offensive line is emphasizing pass-protection communication to keep Curtis clean 36. Curtis's PPA — 1.195 per rush — shows he can escape and make plays with his legs, which is the counter to NC State's pressure plan 1. The offensive tackle matchup, particularly against Dyson, is where this game could be won or lost. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 11 of 16
Page 12
Issa Ouattara vs. NC State offensive line: Inside Pack Sports highlights the 6-foot-7, 315-pound fifth-year defensive tackle as someone who can tip passes at the line 21. With the Wolfpack missing sacks protection consistency — CJ Bailey was sacked twice and pressured 15 times against Virginia — Ouattara's size and pass-rush ability could shorten throwing windows up the middle 20. This is the one front-seven matchup that clearly favors Vanderbilt. 17 VANDERBILT COMMODORES ROSTER UPDATES Verified transfer portal: Incoming (18 players): The headline additions are 4-star EDGE Brian Allen Jr. (Iowa, 0.91 rating), 4-star WR Ja'Cory Thomas (Old Dominion, 0.90), and 3-star TE Jayvontay Conner (East Carolina, 0.89) [data]. The rest are 3-star additions across the offensive line (Beau Johnson, Micah DeBose, Lyndon Cooper), defensive front (Mike Diatta, CJ Jackson, Edwin Kolenge, Talan Carter), secondary (Ricardo Jones, Cobey Sellers, Jaylin Davies) and specialists [data]. Outgoing (20 players): The most significant losses are 4-star WR Tre Richardson (Louisville, 0.93), 4-star S Chris Tangelo (Virginia Tech) and 4-star WRs Jeremiah Dillon and Chance Fitzgerald (Austin Peay) [data]. Also gone: 3-star EDGE Linus Zunk, 3-star S Randon Fontenette (Colorado), 3-star CB Trudell Berry (Oklahoma State) and quarterback Jeremy St-Hilaire (Arkansas State) [data]. Live web research: The only roster news of consequence this week is the quarterback change: five-star true freshman Jared Curtis was named the starter for NC State and going forward, officially ending the two-game rotation with Blaze Berlowitz 931. Curtis, a Nashville native and the No. 2 overall recruit in the 2026 class, took roughly 80% of first-team reps in practice this week 545. Berlowitz, who started both games but completed just 14-of-25 for 178 yards, has been benched — though Clark Lea said the team still needs him and has "100% confidence" in him 2829. The practical effect is that Curtis will handle the entire game plan rather than splitting series, and NC State has been preparing for his downfield playmaking rather than Berlowitz's more conservative approach 29. The transfer portal story matters for this game because of who stayed versus who left. Vanderbilt lost significant receiver talent (Tre Richardson to Louisville, Jeremiah Dillon unclaimed, Chance Fitzgerald to Austin Peay) — which explains why the returning receiving PPA is just 50.1% [data]. But the incoming class addressed the defensive front, which is why the havoc rate is still elite. The portal churn is a wash, but it explains the offensive inconsistency: this is a team that replaced its offensive coordinator's weapons wholesale and is now asking a freshman quarterback to run it. 18 NC STATE WOLFPACK ROSTER UPDATES Verified transfer portal: Incoming (20 players): The notable additions are 3-star TE Hunter Provience (Montana State, 0.89), 3-star LB Popo Aguirre (Miami, 0.89) — who is now a team captain and a leader of the pressure plan against Curtis — 3-star WR Joshisa Trader (Miami, 0.88), 3-star S King Mack (Penn State, 0.87), 3-star CB Ondre Evans (Georgia, 0.87) and 3-star RB Davion Gause (North Carolina, 0.86) [data]. Outgoing (22 players): The most painful losses are 4-star OT Jacarrius Peak (South Carolina, 0.94), 4-star RB Hollywood Smothers (Texas, 0.94), 4-star WRs Terrell Anderson (USC, 0.94) and Noah Rogers (Alabama, 0.93) [data]. Also departed: 3-star LBs Joshua Ofor, Kenny Soares Jr. and Elijah Groves, and 3-star CB Jivan Baly [data]. Live web research: The depth chart for Vanderbilt shows several notable changes. Bailey Benson is now the outright starter at WILL linebacker, replacing the injured AJ Richardson, with the "OR" removed 14. True freshmen Jordan Moreta (MIKE, third string) and Ziggy Moore (WILL, third string) were added to the depth chart after their performances against Richmond 14. In the secondary, Jaren Sensabaugh is now listed as the starting cornerback, while Georgia transfer Ondre Evans — who was the starter a week earlier — is no longer on the depth chart, a change the report does not explain 14. King Mack is back atop the kickoff returner depth chart, with Jonathan Paylor added behind him 14. And the kickoff specialist role is unsettled, listed as Konieczynski OR Drew Lovelace, the converted soccer player 14. The portal story for NC State is one of replacing lost talent with complementary pieces. Losing four players rated 0.93 or higher — Peak, Smothers, Anderson, Rogers — is a massive talent drain, but the Wolfpack answered with a deep incoming class that has already produced: Popo Aguirre is a captain, Joshisa Trader has 5.37 total PPA, and King Mack and Ondre Evans solidify the secondary 1[data]. The puzzling omission of Evans from the depth chart is worth monitoring — losing a Georgia transfer corner without explanation is either a coaching decision or an availability issue, and neither was stated 14. For this game, the roster changes that matter are on the field: Benson stepping in for Richardson, Sensabaugh at corner, and the still-unsettled kickoff specialist role. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 12 of 16
Page 13
19 VANDERBILT COMMODORES PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES Practice reporting out of Nashville has centered entirely on the quarterback transition. Jared Curtis has been taking roughly 80% of first-team reps, up from a 60/40 split in the first two weeks, while Blaze Berlowitz's share has fallen to about 20% 5. Clark Lea said the investment in Curtis is "going to pay off as we go" 5. Offensive lineman Lyndon Cooper said the unit has played "pretty good ball" but must clean up pass-protection communication so "nobody touches our quarterback" 36. Lea expects NC State to show multiple fronts and challenge Vanderbilt on the perimeter with man coverage, and said the game plan is to get the run game going with Sedrick Alexander and MK Young to loosen the box 22. The week's only scrimmage-type development was an open practice period Thursday, where Brian Allen Jr. got work and was declared probable 3. The absence of any meaningful scrimmage results this week is telling — Vanderbilt is in install-and-rep mode, not evaluate mode. The focus on pass-protection communication is a direct acknowledgment of the risk: a true freshman quarterback facing a defense that will blitz. The offensive line's stated priority — keep Curtis upright — is the entire game plan in miniature. If the line holds, Curtis has the arm and legs to make plays; if it breaks down, the 14.5th-percentile explosiveness number will look even worse 1. The early-week conflict over Jamison Curtis's status (questionable per one outlet, out per another) was resolved by game day as an out 36. 20 NC STATE WOLFPACK PRACTICE AND SCRIMMAGE UPDATES NC State opened a practice to the media on Friday, splitting players into two teams focused on offensive actions and attacking defenses, with the open portion highlighting offensive work 38. The focus was on refining the offensive performance from the Richmond game ahead of the road test. The depth chart changes — Benson at WILL, Sensabaugh at corner, the freshmen added at linebacker — were finalized in the official release 14. Dave Doeren said Monday he fully expects center Spike Sowells Jr. to be ready, and the depth chart still lists him as the starter 14. The kickoff specialist competition between Konieczynski and Lovelace remained unresolved heading into the game 14. The practice emphasis matches the game-plan reality: NC State's offense needed a confidence reset after the Virginia debacle, and the split-squad offensive drill was designed to carry the Richmond rhythm into Nashville 38. There were no scrimmage results reported — this was a game-week tune-up, not an evaluative session. The most important practice-related development is the settled defensive lineup. With Benson at WILL, the front seven has clarity, even if it lacks Richardson's experience. The unresolved kickoff specialist spot is the kind of small detail that matters in a projected close game — the Commodores have two punt-return touchdowns, and if the kickoff coverage is inconsistent because a converted soccer player is handling duties, field position could tilt. 21 VANDERBILT COMMODORES VS NC STATE WOLFPACK MEDIA MATCHUP ANALYSIS The national media is split, with a slight tilt toward Vanderbilt in the models and a notable cluster of experts taking the Wolfpack. ESPN Analytics gives Vanderbilt a 68.8% win probability, while numberFire projects 65.5% 46. CBS Sports, RotoWire and Covers all pick NC State outright, a departure from the models 46. SI's writers split: one takes NC State 21-17, the other Vanderbilt 27-23 47. CBS Sports framed the game around the quarterback switch, noting Curtis threw for 210 yards and a TD with two rushing TDs against Delaware 45. The betting market moved from an opening line of Vanderbilt -4.5 to -3 by Friday, indicating money came in on NC State 276. NCFootballNews highlighted both teams' elite third-down defenses — Vanderbilt fourth nationally, NC State ninth — and flagged NC State backup QB Will Wilson as a short-yardage weapon who has converted a first down or touchdown on 40 of 59 career rushing attempts 6. The media narrative is a perfect reflection of the analytical tension in this game. The models see Vanderbilt's defense, home field, and special teams as enough to overcome the talent gap. The humans see a true freshman quarterback on the road in the SEC environment and what NC State's defense did to Richmond. The most telling detail is the line movement — the market shifted 1.5 points toward NC State after opening, which means informed money is betting on the Wolfpack's defense containing Curtis. The local media framing is also notable: SI's Vanderbilt site calls this an "identity test" for the Commodores before SEC play, while NC State's coverage treats it as a proof-of-progress game after the Richmond explosion 334. Both teams have something to prove, and the media recognizes the stakes. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 13 of 16
Page 14
22 GAME CONDITIONS AND BETTING CONTEXT The forecast for Saturday in Nashville calls for clear skies with a temperature of 93.9°F and a dew point of 65.8°F, making it hot and humid but with zero precipitation and a light 2.5 mph wind out of the west [data]. FirstBank Stadium is an open-air venue with artificial turf, a capacity of 40,351, and an elevation of just 160 meters — there is no altitude factor [data]. The forecast is benign for passing: light wind and no rain favor neither the run nor the pass. The heat is the only weather factor, and at 94 degrees it is genuinely warm — this could favor the deeper rotation, which leans NC State given their five-headed running back committee 1. The Commodores are 0-2 against the spread this season with an average cover margin of -11, while NC State is 1-1 with a +9 average [data]. The market opened Vanderbilt -4.5 and is now at -3.25, with a total of 50.5 and a pregame win probability of 59.5% for the home team 276[data]. The open-air heat is a subtle factor. At 94 degrees with 40% humidity, the fourth quarter will feel different than the first, and conditioning matters. NC State's depth at running back — five backs with positive PPA — gives them the kind of rotation that survives hot conditions better than a team leaning on one, two primary ballcarriers 1. The ATS records tell the story of a Vanderbilt team that has won but covered nothing, and an NC State team that has been exactly average against the number. The line settling at -3.25 with a 50.5 total reflects the market's view of a close, lower-scoring game — consistent with both defenses being rated identically by SP+ 1. The conditions do not alter that calculus much: no wind to suppress the passing game, no rain to force a ground-game slugfest. This is a clean, weather-neutral setup. 23 FINAL PREDICTION Vanderbilt wins this game, and they win it by a field goal plus a little insurance — 27-20. My projection starts from the statistical baseline, which blends the ratings (SP+, FPI, Elo consensus margin of 7.72) with the market line (3.25) to produce a consensus margin of 5.48 points and a projected score of roughly 29-23 [data]. I am adjusting that down slightly to Vanderbilt by 7 because the quarterback change cuts both ways but the blueprint — run the ball, lean on the havoc defense, win the special teams battle — is sound. The market has Vanderbilt laying 3.5, and my adjusted projection of 7 gives the home side a comfortable cover. The total of 50.5 is close to my projected 47, so I lean under, but this is a lean, not a strong play — the punting game could inflate it in either direction. My projection: Vanderbilt 27, NC State 20. The baseline consensus was 29-23; I am shaving two points off the total because of the open-air heat (which favors the deeper, more run-centric NC State offense), the absence of Vanderbilt's tight end Cole Spence, and the reality that a true freshman making his first start will generate some empty drives. The market's 3.5-point line against my 7-point margin means the play is take Vanderbilt -3.5, and I will take the under 50.5. The case rests on three pillars. First, the defensive identity: SP+ rates both defenses identically at 23.7, but Vanderbilt's havoc rate is the difference-maker — 94th percentile overall, 17.2% front-seven havoc 1. That chaos is exactly what disrupts a freshman or recovering quarterback, and CJ Bailey has already been sacked twice and pressured 15 times against Virginia 20. Second, the special teams edge: Vanderbilt has two punt-return touchdowns through two games against an NC State team that may be kicking off with a converted soccer player 14. In a game projected in the high 20s to low 20s, a single special teams touchdown is the difference between winning and losing. Third, the home field and the run-game battle: Vanderbilt's defense was top-six in the SEC against the run last year, and while NC State's 86th-percentile rushing offense is a real threat, the Commodores' front — even without Aaron Bryant — has been creating negative plays at an elite rate 231. The Wolfpack's offensive explosion came against Richmond; the opener at Virginia — where they scored 8 points — is the more representative data point for a Power Four road game. Vanderbilt's defense is the closest thing to a Virginia-quality unit on this schedule, and I trust it to hold up at home. Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 14 of 16
Page 15
THE VERDICT · The projected final score, win probability, the model's spread set against the market and the pick that comparison implies — the report's bottom line in one card. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. EDGE Brian Allen Jr. practiced Thursday and is probable for NC State (SI.com) https://www.si.com/college/vanderbilt/football/nc-state-at-vanderbilt-game-central- rundown-live-updates-and-analysis 4. Defensive lineman Aaron Bryant out for the season with ACL injury (SI.com) https://www.si.com/college/vanderbilt/football/vanderbilt-football-injury-report-one- player-suffers-season-ending-injury-others-to-miss-game-against-nc-state 5. Vanderbilt Football Notebook: Jared Curtis Owning Rep Share, Brian Allen Injury Update, Finding Identity (SI.com - Vanderbilt Football Notebook) https://www.si.com/college/vanderbilt/football/vanderbilt-football-notebook-jared- curtis-owning-rep-share-brian-allen-injury-update-finding-identity 6. NC State at Vanderbilt: Time, TV, Odds & What to Watch - NCFootballNews (NCFootballNews) https://ncfootballnews.com/games/nc-state-at-vanderbilt-football-2026/ 7. Vanderbilt Just Took A Brutal Defensive Hit Before NC State | Fanrecap.com https://fanrecap.com/vanderbilt-commodores/vanderbilt-just-took-a-brutal-defensive- hit-before-nc-state--lTRFU 8. 2026 Week 3 College FB Games: Wolfpack Commodores Injury Report - BetIQ https://betiq.teamrankings.com/college-football/matchups/wolfpack-commodores- week-3-2026/injury-report/ 9. Vanderbilt Names Jared Curtis Starting QB vs. NC State (Pack Insider) https://packinsider.com/2026/09/16/vanderbilt-jared-curtis-starting-quarterback-nc- state/ 10. Vanderbilt turns to freshman QB Jared Curtis against NC State - CBS Sports https://sportsfly.cbsistatic.com/college-football/news/vanderbilt-turns-to-freshman-qb- jared-curtis-against-nc-state/ 11. Vanderbilt Freshman Quarterback Jared Curtis Set For First Start (Forbes) https://www.forbes.com/sites/timcasey/2026/09/17/vanderbilt-freshman-quarterback- jared-curtis-set-for-first-start/ 12. Vanderbilt and Florida injury updates - 16Powers https://16powers.com/2858/vanderbilt-and-florida-injury-updates/ 13. NC State LB AJ Richardson out for season with torn bicep (Pack Insider) https://packinsider.com/2026/09/07/nc-state-aj-richardson-out-season-torn-bicep/ 14. NC State expects C Spike Sowells Jr. to play vs. Vanderbilt (Pack Insider) https://packinsider.com/2026/09/15/nc-state-depth-chart-vanderbilt-2026/ 15. Football at Vanderbilt on 9/19/2026 - Game Center - NC State University Athletics 26. NC State at Vanderbilt Matchup Preview | CFBTrack https://cfbtrack.com/games/matchup/2026/401856695 27. NC State vs. Vanderbilt (Sep 19, 2026) Pregame - ESPN (ESPN) https://www.espn.com/college-football/preview/_/gameId/401856695 28. Lea says Vanderbilt will need Blaze Berlowitz despite QB change (SI.com) https://www.si.com/college/vanderbilt/football/could-vanderbilt-football- quarterback-blaze-berlowitz-still-help-vanderbilt-in-2026-why-clark-lea-says-yes 29. Berlowitz's early-season numbers preceded demotion (Saturday Down South) https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/news/college-football/clark-lea-announces- jared-curtis-as-starting-qb-for-vanderbilt-vs-nc-state/ 30. CBSSports: Vanderbilt expected to make the QB change vs. NC State (CBS Sports) https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/vanderbilt-jared-curtis-starting- qb-nc-state/ 31. Why Clark Lea Decided to Name Jared Curtis as Vanderbilt Football’s Quarterback Now https://www.si.com/college/vanderbilt/football/why-clark-lea-decided-to-name- jared-curtis-as-vanderbilt-football-s-quarterback-now 32. Vanderbilt football - Jared Curtis starting quarterback https://vocfb.com/News/ArtMID/443/ArticleID/3221/Vanderbilt-gives-full-time- starting-quarterback-job-to-freshman-jared-curtis 33. NC States Depth Chart Just Raised A Bigger Question Before Vanderbilt | Fanrecap.com http://fanrecap.com/nc-state-wolfpack/nc-states-depth-chart-just-raised-a-bigger- question-before-vanderbilt--CoGno 34. NC State Faces A Real Week 3 Test After Last Weeks Explosion | Fanrecap.com https://fanrecap.com/nc-state-wolfpack/nc-state-faces-a-real-week-3-test-after- last-weeks-explosion--ro2LJ 35. NC State Makes Several Depth Chart Changes for Vanderbilt – packinsider.com – VandyFans.com https://vandyfans.com/nc-state-makes-several-depth-chart-changes-for- vanderbilt-packinsider-com/ 36. Offensive line emphasizing pass-protection communication to protect Curtis (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/vanderbilt/football/how-vanderbilt-football-feels- about-offensive-line-going-into-this-weekend 37. Vanderbilt football fall camp notebook: Running backs, Berlowitz vs. Curtis, more https://247sports.com/college/vanderbilt/article/vanderbilt-football-fall-camp- notebook-running-backs-berlowitz-vs-curtis-more-289047566/ 38. NC State opened practice to media; offense runs split-squad drill (Inside Pack Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 15 of 16
Page 16
https://gopack.com/game-center/24539 16. North Carolina State Wolfpack Injuries 2026-2027 - Updated NCAAF Injury Report https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/teams/main/north-carolina-state- wolfpack/injuries 17. NC State Captain Out For the Season. Now What For the Wolfpack? https://www.si.com/college/ncstate/football/nc-state-captain-out-for-season-now-what- for-wolfpack 18. Vanderbilt vs. NC State - September 19, 2026 | Live Scores, Updates, Odds, Injury News and Recaps | Bleacher Report https://bleacherreport.com/game/nc-state-football-vs-vanderbilt-football-2026-9-19- 10-45 19. NC State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores - Game Center - 9/19/2026 | MSN Sports https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/game-center/sp-id- 758670f1a57b4688b39d1c50955353a7 20. Junior Sherrill vs. Brian Nelson II is the marquee WR-CB battle (The Vanderbilt Hustler) https://vanderbilthustler.com/2026/09/17/football-three-matchups-to-watch-vanderbilt- vs-nc-state/ 21. Nick Rinaldi vs. Duke Scott is the key run-game matchup (Inside Pack Sports) https://insidepacksports.com/s/19231/names-to-watch-vanderbilt 22. Sedrick Alexander and MK Young can attack NC State's run defense (Sports Illustrated (Vanderbilt)) https://www.si.com/college/vanderbilt/football/what-challenges-nc-state-s-defense-will- pose-to-jared-curtis-vanderbilt-football 23. NC State LBs Popo Agguire and Harvey Dyson III expected to pressure Jared Curtis (Sports Illustrated (NC State)) https://www.si.com/college/ncstate/football/three-keys-to-nc-state-beating-vanderbilt 24. NC State To Pressure Vanderbilt's Freshman Quarterback https://www.si.com/college/ncstate/football/nc-state-to-pressure-vanderbilt-jared-curtis 25. What are we watching for against Vanderbilt? | Backing The Pack https://www.backingthepack.com/nc-state-football/41579/what-are-we-watching-for- against-vanderbilt Sports) https://insidepacksports.com/s/19234/open-practice-highlights-offensive-work 39. Everything Dave Doeren Had To Say On The Wolfpack Weekly Radio Show | Inside Pack Sports https://insidepacksports.com/s/19217/everything-dave-doeren-had-to-say-on-the- wolfpack-weekly-radio-show 40. Wolfpack Weekly With NC State OC Kurt Roper | Inside Pack Sports https://insidepacksports.com/s/19215/wolfpack-weekly-with-nc-state-oc-kurt- roper 41. OT Jimarion McCrimon: "We Always Do What We're Trained To Do" | Inside Pack Sports https://insidepacksports.com/s/19212/ot-jimarion-mccrimon-we-always-do-what- were-trained-to-do 42. Dave Doeren Raised 2 Big NC State Questions Before Vanderbilt | Fanrecap.com https://fanrecap.com/nc-state-wolfpack/dave-doeren-raised-2-big-nc-state- questions-before-vanderbilt--LfVhA 43. CRITICAL QUESTIONS: Vanderbilt | Inside Pack Sports https://insidepacksports.com/s/19235/critical-questions-vanderbilt 44. Dave Doeren Previews NC State's Road Test at Vanderbilt – PackInsider – VandyFans.com https://vandyfans.com/dave-doeren-previews-nc-states-road-test-at-vanderbilt- packinsider/ 45. Vanderbilt names five-star freshman Jared Curtis starting QB for NC State (CBS Sports) https://www.cbssports.com/college- football/gametracker/playbyplay/NCAAF_20260919_NCST@VANDY/ 46. Expert picks split: CBS/Covers/RotoWire take NC State; ESPN model favors Vandy (Pack Insider) https://packinsider.com/2026/09/18/nc-state-vanderbilt-expert-predictions-2026/ 47. SI staff predictions: NC State 21-17 and Vanderbilt 27-23 (SI.com (NC State)) https://www.si.com/college/ncstate/football/can-nc-state-pull-off-win-over- vanderbilt-staff-predictions 48. North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Picks, Prop Bets For September 19, 2026 - NCAAF https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/matchup/377974/picks 49. NC State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores Preview & Start Time — September 19, 2026 | SI https://www.si.com/ncaaf/scoreboard/nc-state-vs-vanderbilt-9-19-2026-202 50. VUFB Game Day – NC State - Vanderbilt Commodores | Official Athletics Website https://vucommodores.com/news/2026/09/19/vufb-game-day-nc-state Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack · 2026 · Matchup Report Page 16 of 16
More coverage: Vanderbilt reportsNC State reports All Matchup Reports
Entertainment only. This report is analysis and commentary, not advice, and nothing in it predicts or guarantees any result. Any wager you place is at your own risk. Full disclaimer.