Texas
Published August 9, 2026 at 2:12 PM · 6 pages
Where Texas stands right now: form, injuries and availability, roster movement, practice notes, and what coaches and media are actually saying.
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C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L T E A M R E P O R T Texas Longhorns 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D A U G U S T 9 , 2 0 2 6 0 2 : 0 3 P M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Overall Outlook 02 Visual Analytics 03 The Season: Played and Projected 04 Practice Notes 05 Roster News 06 Injury Report 07 What the Media Is Saying 08 What the Coaches Are Saying
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01 OVERALL OUTLOOK This section covers where Texas stands right now: a 0-0 record, a championship-chasing roster, what the efficiency models say, and the two or three factors that will decide the season. Texas enters 2026 with zero games played and the kind of profile that makes the rest of the sport nervous. ESPN's FPI ranks the Longhorns second nationally with a rating of 26.91, behind only the team they host in Week 2 1. The returning-production numbers are the headline: Texas brings back 72.1 percent of its total offensive PPA from a year ago, including 85.4 percent of its passing production and a staggeringly thorough 126.4 percent of its rushing production — a figure that exceeds 100 percent because the backfield was rebuilt through the portal rather than emptied 1. Arch Manning is a fully cleared second-year starter, the defense returns a deep, healthy core, and the roster churn that gutted the running back room was met with an aggressive transfer response. This is a top-four preseason team with a real national-title ceiling 31. The projection models pencil Texas at 9.7 expected wins on the season, which is a borderline College Football Playoff profile — and given the schedule, that ceiling comes with a floor that could get ugly 1. Three things will decide the season. First, the rebuilt offensive line: five of six starters from the Citrus Bowl are gone, and the first fall scrimmage showed a unit getting pushed around by its own defense 15. Second, the Week 2 showdown with No. 1 Ohio State, a coin-flip game by the ratings (51.8 percent win probability) that shapes everything that follows 1. Third, the November road gauntlet — Missouri, LSU, and Texas A&M in a three-week window, with the two games the ratings call near-toss-ups (LSU and A&M both at 63.1 percent) sitting right at the end of the schedule 1. Texas is talented enough to win the SEC. It's also one shaky offensive line away from a 9-3 season that gets remembered as a disappointment. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like-for-like from one game to the next. SEASON RESULTS · Scoring margin for every completed game. Wins are in the team's color, losses in the contrast color, so blowouts and near-misses are separable at a glance. EFFICIENCY PROFILE · Every advanced metric converted to a national percentile against all FBS teams, so the outer ring is always better regardless of which way the raw stat runs. FORM TREND · Week-by-week predicted points added on both sides of the ball. This is where a team trending up or sliding shows through, which season averages hide. Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Team Report Page 2 of 6
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TOP INDIVIDUAL IMPACT · The players who have actually moved the needle this season. Cross-reference against the injury and roster sections. THE ROAD AHEAD · Projected margin for every remaining game, from the SP+/FPI/Elo consensus with home-field advantage — the same baseline the matchup reports use. Bars below zero are games the ratings say this team should lose. 03 THE SEASON: PLAYED AND PROJECTED This section walks through the completed games (none — the season hasn't started) and then the full projected road ahead, with tables for both. Completed games WEEK OPPONENT H/A RESULT SCORE — Season has not begun — — — The 2026 season kicks off Saturday, September 5 against Texas State at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, with kickoff set for 2:30 p.m. CT on ESPN 79. No game has been played, so there are no recaps, no box scores, and no "what we learned" columns — only the considerable body of preseason evidence assembled during fall camp. That evidence includes a first scrimmage in which the defense dominated, a leading storyline given that the Longhorns open against a Sun Belt opponent before the Ohio State game that everyone actually cares about 14. The three nonconference games — Texas State, Ohio State, and UTSA — all happen inside the first three weeks, meaning the SEC grind starts at Tennessee in Week 4 910. The road ahead — projections shown are from the data, and they are ratings-based estimates, not promises. WEEK OPPONENT SITE PROJECTED MARGIN WIN PROBABILITY 1 Texas State Home +33.6 99.4% 2 Ohio State Home +0.6 51.8% 3 UTSA Home +34.6 99.5% 4 Tennessee Away +9.5 75.9% 6 Oklahoma Neutral +9.1 75.0% 7 Florida Home +15.7 87.8% 8 Ole Miss Home +13.3 83.8% 9 Mississippi State Home +25.2 96.9% 10 Missouri Away +12.3 81.9% Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Team Report Page 3 of 6
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11 LSU Away +4.5 63.1% 12 Arkansas Home +24.9 96.7% 13 Texas A&M Away +4.5 63.1% The consensus model, blending SP+, FPI and Elo with home-field applied, projects Texas to win 9.7 of 12 games and finish 9.7-2.3 — a double-digit-win season that lands on the right side of the Playoff bubble 1. Every projected margin is positive; no game in "The Road Ahead" chart falls below zero, which says the ratings never see Texas as an underdog. But look closer and the schedule is more perilous than the averages suggest. The single likeliest stumble is Week 2 against Ohio State, rated the other side of a pick'em at 51.8 percent 1. Then the season's fate swings on the final road swing: LSU and Texas A&M are both projected at 63.1 percent, the two lowest win probabilities outside the Ohio State game, and they sit back-to-back-to-back with Missouri in a three-game November stretch that will define whether this is a 10-win season or a Playoff one 18. The matchup that cracks Texas open isn't a secret — it's the offensive line, which graded poorly in scrimmage work and gets tested by the single best defensive front in the country in Week 2 15. With no completed games, the projection record on this team is empty by definition: zero graded predictions exist, so an honest summary is that nothing has been tested yet. 04 PRACTICE NOTES What's happening on the practice field and in scrimmages: who's standing out, who's limited, and where the position battles sit. Fall camp's dominant storyline out of the gate is that the defense is ahead of the offense — a lot. In the first scrimmage, the offense could barely move against the defense, and when the offense did push the ball downfield, the defense eventually stopped it 14. Sarkisian framed it as historically normal — "the defense should be ahead of the offense" — but it's a meaningful data point given the revamped offensive line and the early chemistry questions facing Manning and a new backfield 14. The one offensive highlight of the day, per OrangeBloods, was a monster touchdown catch by Ryan Wingo on a throw from Manning, a flash of what the passing game can be when the protection holds 1516. Manning showed promise with an imperfect day and notably connected well with Wingo, who impressed after missing significant practice time 16. The offensive line is the camp's unresolved anxiety. Texas returns only one starter from last year's group — right guard DJ Campbell — and the first scrimmage showed a line that couldn't create running lanes or hold up in protection 15. The battles are live: right tackle between Brandon Baker and Andre Cojoe, with Trevor Goosby at left tackle, Neto Umeozulu at left guard, and Cole Hutson at center 15. The rebuilt running back room, meanwhile, is the camp's feel-good story. The Longhorns lost their top four backs from 2025 to the portal, then reloaded with Arizona State's Raleek Brown — off a 1,000-yard season at 6.13 yards per carry — and NC State's Hollywood Smothers, who cleared six yards per carry in back-to-back seasons 17. Sarkisian has said the two have become "almost best friends," a chemistry that mirrors the two-back split he wants to run, and both are expected to contribute immediately 1718. The bet is that Brown and Smothers restore the explosiveness that made Texas only 57th nationally — tied for 78th, actually — with runs longer than 10 yards last season 17. Coaches have now shifted from scrimmaging against each other to building the game plan for Texas State and Ohio State 19. One install note to file away: position-flex work on Kobe Black, moved around the defensive backfield to buy depth at multiple spots 36. 05 ROSTER NEWS Non-injury roster movement: depth-chart changes, transfers, eligibility rulings, position switches. The transfer-portal block below is the verified wire for who actually moved; researched news follows separately. Transfer portal — incoming (verified): The Longhorns made 22 additions, headlined by five-star Auburn wide receiver Cam Coleman (0.98 rating), four-star running backs Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State), four-star offensive tackle Melvin Siani (Wake Forest), and four-star linebacker Rasheem Biles (Pittsburgh). The rest of the class: WR Sterling Berkhalter (Wake Forest), DL Ian Geffrard (Arkansas), CB Bo Mascoe (Rutgers), IOL players Laurence Seymore (Western Kentucky), Dylan Sikorski (Oregon State), and Paris Patterson Jr. (SMU), OT Jonte Newman (Texas A&M), LBs Justin Cryer (Florida State), Darius Snow (Michigan State), and Markus Boswell (Akron), DL Zion Williams (LSU), TE Michael Masunas (Michigan State), QB MJ Morris (Coastal Carolina), CB Nick Hudson (Brown), long snapper Trey Dubuc (New Mexico), punter Mac Chiumento (Florida State), and kicker Gianni Spetic (Memphis) 1. Transfer portal — outgoing (verified): Texas lost 28 players to the portal, including four-star receiver DeAndre Moore Jr. (Colorado), four-star running back Quintrevion Wisner (Florida State), four-star IOL Nick Brooks (Alabama), four-star receiver Parker Livingstone (Oklahoma), and four-star linebackers Liona Lefau (Colorado) and Elijah Barnes (Kentucky). The running back exodus was the story: Wisner, CJ Baxter (Kentucky), Jerrick Gibson (Purdue), Christian Clark (South Carolina), and Rickey Stewart Jr. (Stephen F. Austin) all departed 1. Also out: QB Trey Owens (Arkansas State), and a wave of offensive linemen including Connor Stroh (Kansas), Nate Kibble (Baylor), Daniel Cruz (NC State), and Neto Umeozulu (North Texas) 1. Researched news: Live research for the two-week window turned up no new non-injury roster moves that could be verified within the required recency window. The portal block above is the ground truth for who moved this offseason 1. One roster-adjacent note: the backfield was deliberately restructured — Sarkisian said the program "had to let go" of some players this off-season, a comment that drew national scrutiny for adding pressure to an already-expectant season 3522. 06 INJURY REPORT Medical items only, with status and expected return where reported. Two separate inputs are presented below — a live web search run just now, and the stored injury feed — kept visibly separate. Live web research: The active injury picture for fall camp is genuinely light. Sarkisian said at SEC Media Days that the roster is close to full health: "I haven't seen anybody that we're going to say he's necessarily out. We know Kaden Scherer is obviously going to be out with the ACL, but outside of that, I think we're going to have a full roster ready to go" 3. Scherer, a freshman offensive lineman, tore his ACL early in spring practice and had surgery; he has no return date and is likely out for the season 3. The headline medical item is the quarterback: Arch Manning is fully cleared for camp after offseason foot surgery described as a preventative measure — he participated in summer workouts and the Manning Passing Academy without issue 32. Safety Jonah Williams, who had season-ending shoulder surgery in March after aggravating an old injury playing baseball, is cleared for camp but coaches plan to monitor his workload carefully 32. Also cleared after offseason shoulder surgeries: linebacker Ty'Anthony Smith, safety Xavier Filsaime, and defensive lineman Justus Terry, all expected back for training camp 4. Offensive lineman Trevor Goosby underwent shoulder surgery after the Citrus Bowl and was projected out 4-6 weeks with a return expected for summer workouts 5 — and he's since been listed at left tackle in scrimmage reporting, indicating he's back in the lineup 15. Injury feed (stored): The local injury feed, built over recent days, tracks a slightly fuller picture: Arch Manning (QB) — available, foot surgery recovery 2; Jonah Williams (S) — available, shoulder surgery recovery 2; Ty'Anthony Smith (LB) — available, shoulder surgery recovery 2; Xavier Filsaime (S) — available, shoulder surgery recovery 2; Justus Terry (DL) — available 2; Kaden Scherer (OL) — out, torn ACL, indefinite 2; Trevor Goosby (OL) — out 4-6 weeks after shoulder surgery, expected back for summer 2; Cole Hutson (OL) — available, cleared via eligibility ruling rather than a medical recovery 6. The feed's one non-medical item is Hutson, who rejoined the roster after an NCAA eligibility agreement, adding veteran offensive line depth as camp opened 628. On the whole: one season-ending ACL, one shoulder surgery that's resolved itself, and a fully healthy starting quarterback. For a team with national title odds, that's a clean bill of health. Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Team Report Page 4 of 6
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07 WHAT THE MEDIA IS SAYING National and local coverage, analyst takes, rankings movement, and the betting market's read on this team. The national narrative is unambiguous: Texas is one of the two or three most scrutinized programs in the country, wearing a No. 4 preseason ranking and a target on its back. The USA Today LBM Coaches Preseason Poll, released August 4, has Ohio State No. 1, Oregon No. 2, Georgia No. 3, and Texas No. 4 31. The schedule is the story within the story: six ranked teams on the slate, four in the top 10 — Ohio State (No. 1), Texas A&M (No. 8), Oklahoma (No. 9), and Ole Miss (No. 10) — plus LSU (No. 13) and Missouri (No. 25), with Florida receiving votes at No. 27 31. The betting market is already in on Texas: the Longhorns opened as 2.5-point favorites over Ohio State for the Sept. 12 home game, a role reversal from last year's 2.5-point underdog status in Columbus, where Arch Manning's first start as QB1 ended in a 14-7 loss 32. Analysts are framing the Ohio State game as the single most important regular-season date in the country 3231. Not everyone is buying the hype at face value. ESPN's Adam Rittenberg pushed back on the "elite coach" label for Sarkisian, arguing he "must show he can do more with more" and noting only two top-10 finishes across his tenures at USC and Texas 34. A Yahoo Sports column flagged that Sarkisian's SEC Media Days comment about players Texas "had to let go" drew attention to offseason roster churn that didn't need highlighting, arguing the Longhorns are the most-discussed team in the nation with the highest expectations of any program 35. Sarkisian, for his part, leaned into the difficulty of the schedule at SEC Media Days, questioning aloud whether the committee would let a 9-3 team into the Playoff — a rhetorical nod to how brutal this slate is 33. The preseason consensus: Texas is a legitimate title contender whose ceiling depends on whether the rebuilt offensive line and new backfield can hold up against a schedule that offers no mercy. The KBTX SEC preview singles out the Nov. 27 trip to College Station as the biggest remaining hurdle, with Texas A&M seeking its first win over the Longhorns since 2010 8. 08 WHAT THE COACHES ARE SAYING Direct quotes and paraphrases from Steve Sarkisian and staff, drawn from the first fall camp presser and recent media appearances. Steve Sarkisian, at his first fall camp press conference (Aug. 7), framed the roster's depth as the program's defining asset heading into a brutal nine-game SEC schedule: "We're really deep" — with an emphasis on building a quality two-deep at every position plus a third guy who can play, and special teams getting real weight in the plan 3638. He credited strength coach Torre Becton's staff for a summer that he said showed "real commitment," noting the Longhorns had "one of our least cramp days" for a first practice — his shorthand for improved conditioning and buy-in 3736. He also called out individual transformations, praising defensive lineman Ian Geffrard for dropping almost 25 pounds and Kohen Brown's buy-in 36. On the offense, Sarkisian said Arch Manning had a good first day despite the typical early-practice rough edges quarterbacks deal with, and highlighted nice runs from Hollywood Smothers and Michael Terry 36. He flagged Rasheem Biles on defense and Jermaine Bishop back on offense 36. On the safety position, he had high praise for Jelani McDonald, saying he deserved all-conference honors from last year and that Will Muschamp's scheme fits him well — a signal of a breakout role to come 36. On Kobe Black's position flexibility, Sarkisian said it's "so far so good" as Black moves around the defensive backfield 36. He told players to tune out the outside noise and focus on "proving us right inside the building" 36. On Cole Hutson specifically, Sarkisian said at the first presser there were positive signs but no firm update, expecting more within about a week 36. And at SEC Media Days (July 23), he defended the high-risk nonconference scheduling, saying there's "a lot of value in that win" and questioning how the committee will weigh strength of schedule — "Are we going to let a 9-3 team in as an at-large?" 33. He also confirmed the near-full health of the roster, with Scherer the only known absence 3. The coaching staff, having settled its scrimmage questions, is now building the Ohio State game plan 19. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2. College football injury feed (Injury feed) https://www.rotowire.com/cfootball/news.php 3. Arch Manning cleared for fall camp after foot surgery (Longhorns Wire) https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/football/2026/07/27/injury-status-update-on-texas-football-health-heading- into-fall-camp/91063270007/ 4. Ty'Anthony Smith, Xavier Filsaime, Justus Terry all available for camp after shoulder surgeries (Burnt Orange Nation) https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-football/103517/texas-longhorns-health-preseason-camp 5. Trevor Goosby underwent shoulder surgery after Citrus Bowl, out 4-6 weeks (On3) https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/sources-trevor-goosby-recently-underwent-surgery-for-a-shoulder-injury/ 6. Cole Hutson rejoins roster after NCAA eligibility ruling, not injury-related (Sporting News) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/texas/news/arch-manning-texas-longhorns-o-line-reinforcement/dddd7b59201349c2fa9bc9e9 7. Texas Longhorns Release Kickoff Times for Full 2026 Football Schedule (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-release-kickoff-times-for-full-2026-football-schedule 8. SEC Preview: Texas Longhorns (KBTX) https://www.kbtx.com/2026/08/07/sec-preview-texas-longhorns/ 9. 2026 Football Schedule Announced by University of Texas Athletics (Texas Longhorns Athletics) https://texaslonghorns.com/sports/football/schedule 10. Texas Longhorns 2026 Regular Season NCAAF Schedule https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/251/texas-longhorns 11. Texas Longhorns SCHEDULE - FOX Sports https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/texas-longhorns-team-schedule 12. How to watch Texas vs Sam Houston: Date, time, TV channel ... https://sports.yahoo.com/article/watch-texas-vs-sam-houston-100016820.html 13. Texas Longhorns 2026 Regular Season NCAAF Fixtures - ESPN https://www.espn.com.au/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/251 14. Texas defense stifles offense in first fall scrimmage (Sports Illustrated) https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-defense-stifles-offense-first-scrimmage-fall-camp 15. Texas offensive line struggles vs. defense in scrimmage (Yardbarker) https://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/texas_longhorns_offensive_line_struggles_vs_defense_in_scrimmage/s1_16598_42565436 16. Scrimmage report: Immediate notes from Texas' first scrimmage of preseason (On3) https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/scrimmage-report-immediate-notes-from-texas-first-scrimmage-of-the-preseason/ 17. Rebuilt Texas RB room hopes to regain ground game explosiveness (Yahoo Sports) https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rebuilt-texas-rb-room-hopes-184647724.html 18. Texas football freshman could play role early for 2026 Longhorns (Austin American-Statesman) https://www.statesman.com/sports/college/longhorns/football/article/raleek-brown-hollywood-smothers-texas-22358048.php 19. Texas coaches have the scouting report. Now they build the game plan (On3) https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/texas-coaches-have-the-scouting-report-now-they-build-the-game-plan/ 20. Texas Football Fall Camp Preview: Running Back Depth Chart, Battles, and Questions - On3 https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/texas-football-fall-camp-preview-running-back-depth-chart-battles-and-questions/ 21. Sarkisian talks impact of five-for-five rule amid former player’s eligibility lawsuit – The Daily Texan https://thedailytexan.com/2026/07/20/sarkisian-talks-impact-of-five-for- five-rule-amid-former-players-eligibility-lawsuit/ 22. Texas overhauls running back room for 2026 https://www.ktsm.com/news/new-faces-headline-texas-running-back-room- in-2026/ 23. 2026 Texas Longhorns football: From Arch Manning to Colin Simmons https://www.statesman.com/sports/college/longhorns/football/article/texas- football-2026-roster-22371524.php 24. Texas' Sarkisian may have tipped his hand on 2026 running back starter - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texas-sarkisian-may-tipped-hand- 214622886.html 25. Texas OT Trevor Goosby set for return to Austin - On3 https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/texas-ot-trevor-goosby- set-for-return-to-austin/ 26. Texas football restructures running back room for 2026 – The Daily Texan https://thedailytexan.com/2026/04/06/texas-football-restructures-running- back-room-for-2026/ 27. Star quarterback Colton Nussmeier transfers out of Texas | Fort Worth Star-Telegram https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/dfwvarsity/article316800982.html 28. Texas football: OL Cole Hutson can rejoin Longhorns for fifth season after court ruling - Yahoo Sports https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texas-football-ol-cole-hutson- 020128292.html 29. Longhorns’ two-sport phenom stays committed to football and baseball after season-ending injury | Sporting News https://www.sportingnews.com/au/ncaa-football/texas/news/williams- football-baseball-shoulder-surgery/85e29c20a2bd43f1d953be86 30. Jonah Williams - Football - University of Texas Athletics https://texaslonghorns.com/sports/football/roster/jonah-williams/17039 31. Texas ranked No. 4 in the USA Today LBM Coaches Preseason Poll; hosts No. 1 Ohio State in Week 2 (Houston Chronicle) https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/college/longhorns/article/chris- del-conte-jersey-patches-save-college-sports-22373152.php 32. 2026 Texas-Ohio State game is a 'role reversal' of the 2025 matchup; Longhorns open as 2.5-point favorites (Longhorns Wire (via Yahoo Sports)) https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/role-reversal-2026-texas-ohio- 215236590.html 33. Sarkisian at SEC Media Days: high-level nonconference schedule is a risk worth taking (The Daily Texan) https://thedailytexan.com/2026/07/30/high-risk-high-reward-sarkisian- talks-nonconference-schedules/ 34. ESPN analyst Adam Rittenberg pumps brakes on Sarkisian as an 'elite' coach (ClutchPoints) https://clutchpoints.com/ncaa-football/texas-football-news-espn-analyst- pumps-brakes-steve-sarkisian-truly-elite-coach 35. Sarkisian says Texas 'had to let go' of some players; analysts flag unneeded pressure (Longhorns Wire (via Yahoo Sports)) Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Team Report Page 5 of 6
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https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/countdown-kickoff-sarkisian-adding- unneeded-154220807.html 36. Sarkisian: Texas is 'really deep' and needs bodies for challenging nine- game SEC schedule (On3) https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/everything-texas-head- coach-steve-sarkisian-said-first-fall-camp-practice-2026/ 37. Sarkisian: less cramping on Day 1 shows improved conditioning and buy-in (Yahoo Sports) https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/texas-coach-steve-sarkisian-praises- 021450958.html 38. Steve Sarkisian Praises Texas' Depth After Opening Fall Camp Practice https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/steve-sarkisian-praises-texas- depth-after-opening-fall-camp-practice 39. Steve Sarkisian Isn't Shying Away From Championship Expectations - Orangebloods https://www.orangebloods.com/2026/07/28/steve-sarkisian-championship- expectations/ Texas Longhorns · 2026 · Team Report Page 6 of 6
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