2026 Week 1
Published August 30, 2026 at 7:54 PM · 6 pages
2026 Week 1: every matchup projected against the market line, upset watch, ranked teams on alert, and a day-by-day viewing guide.
Read this report as text The same 6 pages, for screen readers and searching
Page 1
C O L L E G E F O O T B A L L W E E K L Y S L A T E P R E V I E W Weekly Slate Preview 2026 Season G E N E R A T E D A U G U S T 3 0 , 2 0 2 6 0 7 : 5 4 P M I N T H I S R E P O R T 01 Week Overview 02 Visual Analytics 03 Games of the Week 04 The Full Slate Board 05 Upset Watch 06 Ranked Teams on Alert 07 What to Watch, Day by Day
Page 2
01 WEEK OVERVIEW The 91-game Week 1 slate 1 opens with five headliners, four of them involving AP top-25 teams and one true toss-up. No. 1 Ohio State is the week's biggest favorite at 54.3, while the headliner slate features No. 2 Oregon, No. 4 Notre Dame, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 11 LSU and No. 19 SMU. The model and market disagree most on West Virginia (model 15.2 vs. line 21.5), Alabama (22.7 vs. 28.5), New Mexico (14.6 vs. 10.25), Washington (19.4 vs. 23.75) and Houston (16.5 vs. 20.75). The rendered Model vs Market chart frames those arguments; the Biggest Projected Mismatches chart leads with Ohio State's 54.3-point model margin. 02 VISUAL ANALYTICS Generated directly from the CollegeFootballData feeds for this matchup. The same visuals appear on every report, so numbers can be compared like- for-like from one game to the next. MODEL VS MARKET · Every game with both a model margin and a market line. Distance from the diagonal is disagreement; the games farthest off it are the week's arguments. 2026 Week 1 · Weekly Slate Preview Page 2 of 6
Page 3
BIGGEST PROJECTED MISMATCHES · The week's largest model margins — the games the numbers say should not be close. 03 GAMES OF THE WEEK The five headliners flagged in the data 1. Boise State at No. 2 Oregon — Stakes: No. 2 Oregon opens as a headliner against a Mountain West opponent. Statistical edge: Oregon by 25.1, 96.9% win probability, total 51.75. Model vs market: Oregon 25.1 vs. 24.5 (edge +0.6). What decides it: Oregon's 25.1-point margin is a three-and-a-half-possession edge; Boise State's path is to keep the total under 51.75. Clemson at No. 11 LSU — Stakes: ACC vs. SEC headliner in Tiger Stadium. Statistical edge: LSU by 9.4, 75.7% win probability, total 51.25. Model vs market: LSU 9.4 vs. 10.5 (edge -1.1). What decides it: LSU's edge is just under a 10.5-point market ask; if Clemson keeps the score near the total, this stays within one possession. Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (neutral) — Stakes: Notre Dame opens at Lambeau Field as a headliner. Statistical edge: Notre Dame by 21.9, 94.8% win probability, total 47.5. Model vs market: Notre Dame 21.9 vs. 20.25 (edge +1.6). What decides it: Notre Dame's 21.9-point model margin covers the market line by 1.6 points; Wisconsin needs the game to stay under the 47.5 total. Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss (neutral) — Stakes: the only headliner with two ranked teams. Statistical edge: Ole Miss by 6.0, 67.2% win probability, total 55.5. Model vs market: Ole Miss 6.0 vs. 6.5 (edge -0.5). What decides it: Louisville's 32.8% win probability is the best upset chance among headliner underdogs; the model sees a one-score game. SMU at Florida State — Stakes: No. 19 SMU opens on the road in ACC play. Statistical edge: SMU by 0.7, 52.1% win probability, total 53.5. Model vs market: SMU 0.7 vs. 3.0 (edge +2.3 from Florida State's side). What decides it: the model's 52.1% win probability for SMU makes this the week's true toss-up. 04 THE FULL SLATE BOARD All 91 games, ordered by date and interest; headliners lead each date 1. MATCHUP MODEL MARKET EDGE TOTAL Sep 3: Massachusetts at Rutgers Home 29.5 Home 29.25 0.2 52.75 Sep 3: Akron at Wake Forest Home 25.7 Home 24.25 1.4 48.5 Sep 3: Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri — Home 54.5 — 60.5 Sep 3: Colorado at Georgia Tech Home 4.8 Home 6.5 -1.7 50.75 2026 Week 1 · Weekly Slate Preview Page 3 of 6
Page 4
Sep 3: Idaho at Utah — Home 33.5 — 56.5 Sep 3: UAB at Illinois Home 27.2 Home 28.5 -1.3 56.25 Sep 3: Eastern Illinois at Minnesota — Home 43.5 — 51.5 Sep 3: Bethune-Cookman at UCF — Home 42.5 — 58.5 Sep 3: Merrimack at Delaware — Home 28.5 — 55.5 Sep 3: UAlbany at Buffalo — Home 24.5 — 48.5 Sep 3: West Georgia at Kennesaw State — Home 23.5 — 51.5 Sep 4: San José State at Eastern Michigan Home 0.6 Home 3.5 -2.9 54.5 Sep 4: North Carolina A&T at Georgia State — Home 28.5 — 63.5 Sep 4: Indiana State at Purdue — Home 35.5 — 56.5 Sep 4: UTEP at Oklahoma Home 38.6 Home 41.5 -2.9 50.5 Sep 4: Toledo at Michigan State Home 9.7 Home 10.0 -0.3 49.5 Sep 4: Long Island University at Kansas — Home 38.5 — 53.5 Sep 4: Miami at Stanford Away 21.3 Away 24.5 3.2 47.5 Sep 4: Fresno State at USC Home 20.0 Home 22.75 -2.8 51.5 Sep 5: Boise State at Oregon Home 25.1 Home 24.5 0.6 51.75 Sep 5: Clemson at LSU Home 9.4 Home 10.5 -1.1 51.25 Sep 5: North Texas at Indiana Home 35.9 Home 40.75 -4.9 55.5 Sep 5: East Carolina at Alabama Home 22.7 Home 28.5 -5.8 53.75 Sep 5: Oregon State at Houston Home 16.5 Home 20.75 -4.2 51.5 Sep 5: Ohio at Nebraska Home 21.3 Home 23.75 -2.4 47.5 Sep 5: Coastal Carolina at West Virginia Home 15.2 Home 21.5 -6.3 56.25 Sep 5: Liberty at James Madison Home 7.5 Home 6.5 1.0 52.75 Sep 5: Bryant at Army — Home 36.5 — 51.5 Sep 5: New Hampshire at Syracuse — Home 33.5 — 55.5 Sep 5: Lafayette at UConn — Home 19.5 — 58.5 Sep 5: Tarleton State at Bowling Green — Home 2.5 — 47.5 Sep 5: Ball State at Ohio State Home 54.3 Home 50.75 3.5 56.5 Sep 5: Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh Home 14.3 Home 16.25 -1.9 49.5 Sep 5: Kent State at South Carolina Home 34.7 Home 36.5 -1.8 53.25 Sep 5: Duquesne at Air Force — Home 30.5 — 58.5 Sep 5: Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State — Home 29.5 — 53.5 Sep 5: Youngstown State at Kentucky — Home 23.5 — 62.5 Sep 5: Rhode Island at Temple — Home 10.5 — 51.5 Sep 5: Tennessee State at Georgia — Home 46.5 — 56.5 Sep 5: Texas State at Texas Home 30.4 Home 30.5 -0.1 59.75 Sep 5: Marshall at Penn State Home 25.9 Home 24.5 1.4 54.5 Sep 5: Furman at Tennessee — Home 46.5 — 66.5 Sep 5: Boston College at Cincinnati Home 8.7 Home 7.5 1.2 51.5 Sep 5: Tulane at Duke Home 8.0 Home 9.0 -1.0 50.75 Sep 5: Baylor vs. Auburn (neutral) Home 6.6 Home 7.0 -0.4 58.75 Sep 5: Fordham at North Dakota State — Home 39.5 — 57.5 Sep 5: Towson at Navy — Home 30.5 — 53.5 Sep 5: UT Rio Grande Valley at UTSA — Home 28.5 — 59.5 2026 Week 1 · Weekly Slate Preview Page 4 of 6
Page 5
Sep 5: Maine at App State — Home 18.5 — 53.5 Sep 5: The Citadel at Charlotte — Home 17.5 — 46.5 Sep 5: Oklahoma State at Tulsa Away 10.3 Away 13.75 3.4 60.25 Sep 5: Northern Illinois at Iowa Home 30.8 Home 31.75 -0.9 45.5 Sep 5: North Alabama at Arkansas — Home 40.5 — 63.5 Sep 5: Alcorn State at Southern Miss — Home 21.0 — 50.5 Sep 5: Wyoming at Colorado State Home 2.4 Home 3.0 -0.6 47.5 Sep 5: Norfolk State at Old Dominion — Home 41.5 — 55.5 Sep 5: Missouri State at Texas A&M Home 37.5 Home 41.0 -3.5 53.0 Sep 5: Abilene Christian at Texas Tech — Home 42.5 — 59.5 Sep 5: Sam Houston at Troy Home 16.9 Home 16.75 0.1 53.5 Sep 5: Florida International at South Florida Home 14.6 Home 13.5 1.1 53.75 Sep 5: Arkansas State at Memphis Home 12.9 Home 9.0 3.9 53.5 Sep 5: Nicholls at Kansas State — Home 40.5 — 55.5 Sep 5: Austin Peay at Vanderbilt — Home 30.5 — 61.5 Sep 5: Charleston Southern at Georgia Southern — Home 25.5 — 51.5 Sep 5: Houston Christian at Rice — Home 22.5 — 47.5 Sep 5: Murray State at Middle Tennessee — Home 20.5 — 59.5 Sep 5: Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State — Home 19.5 — 54.5 Sep 5: SE Louisiana at South Alabama — Home 12.5 — 52.5 Sep 5: Idaho State at Utah State — Home 12.5 — 63.5 Sep 5: Western Michigan at Michigan Home 23.9 Home 27.5 -3.6 48.0 Sep 5: UL Monroe at Mississippi State Home 30.9 Home 28.5 2.4 56.0 Sep 5: VMI at Virginia Tech — Home 51.5 — 57.5 Sep 5: Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech — Home 43.5 — 52.5 Sep 5: Florida Atlantic at Florida Home 25.5 Home 27.0 -1.5 59.5 Sep 5: Utah Tech at BYU — Home 50.5 — 54.5 Sep 5: Hampton at Maryland — Home 45.5 — 56.5 Sep 5: Lamar at Louisiana — Home 20.5 — 48.5 Sep 5: South Dakota State at Northwestern — Home 12.5 — 46.5 Sep 5: Mercyhurst at New Mexico State — Home 28.5 — 51.5 Sep 5: Portland State at San Diego State — Home 40.5 — 57.5 Sep 5: Northern Arizona at Arizona — Home 31.5 — 56.5 Sep 5: Central Michigan at New Mexico Home 14.6 Home 10.25 4.3 46.75 Sep 5: UNLV at Hawai'i Away 2.4 Away 3.0 0.6 58.25 Sep 5: Morgan State at Arizona State — Home 41.5 — 52.5 Sep 5: Mississippi Valley State at Sacramento State — Home 35.5 — 56.5 Sep 5: UCLA at California Home 1.4 Away 1.75 3.1 53.75 Sep 5: Western Kentucky at Nevada Away 3.3 Away 2.5 -0.8 52.5 Sep 6: Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin (neutral) Home 21.9 Home 20.25 1.6 47.5 Sep 6: Ole Miss vs. Louisville (neutral) Home 6.0 Home 6.5 -0.5 55.5 Sep 6: Washington State at Washington Home 19.4 Home 23.75 -4.4 50.75 Sep 7: SMU at Florida State Away 0.7 Away 3.0 2.3 53.5 2026 Week 1 · Weekly Slate Preview Page 5 of 6
Page 6
05 UPSET WATCH The model's biggest disagreements with the market point to overpriced favorites and live underdogs 1. West Virginia — model 15.2 vs. line 21.5; the week's largest edge against a favorite (-6.3). Alabama — model 22.7 vs. line 28.5 (-5.8). Indiana — model 35.9 vs. line 40.75 (-4.9). Washington — model 19.4 vs. line 23.75 (-4.4). Houston — model 16.5 vs. line 20.75 (-4.2). Live underdogs — California (model +1.4, 54.1% win probability), Florida State (model -0.7, 47.9%), Hawai'i (model -2.4, 42.9%), Tulsa (model -10.3, 22.3%). 06 RANKED TEAMS ON ALERT The ranked teams with the thinnest model edges or the most hostile settings 1. LSU (No. 11) — home vs. Clemson with a 9.4-point model margin and 75.7% win probability. Ole Miss (No. 9) — neutral-site headliner vs. Louisville with a 6.0-point model margin and 67.2% win probability. SMU (No. 19) — road favorite by 0.7 at Florida State with a 52.1% win probability. Louisville (No. 24) — neutral-site underdog with a 32.8% win probability. 07 WHAT TO WATCH, DAY BY DAY Kickoff times are Eastern; networks come from the data's tv field 1. Thursday, Sept. 3 — Rutgers vs. Massachusetts (6:00, BTN); Wake Forest vs. Akron (7:00, ACC Network); Georgia Tech vs. Colorado (8:00, ESPN); Missouri vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (8:00, SEC Network); Illinois vs. UAB (9:00, BTN); Utah vs. Idaho (9:00, ESPNU). Friday, Sept. 4 — San José State at Eastern Michigan (6:30, ESPN+); Purdue vs. Indiana State (7:00, BTN); Oklahoma vs. UTEP (8:00, SECN+); Michigan State vs. Toledo (8:00, FS1); Miami at Stanford (9:00, ESPN); USC vs. Fresno State (9:00, FOX). Saturday, Sept. 5 — Indiana vs. North Texas (noon, FOX); Alabama vs. East Carolina (noon, ABC); Houston vs. Oregon State (noon, Disney+/ESPN); Ohio State vs. Ball State (12:30, BTN); Georgia vs. Tennessee State (3:00, SECN+); Oregon vs. Boise State (3:30, CBS); Texas vs. Texas State (3:30, ESPN); Penn State vs. Marshall (3:30, FS1); Tennessee vs. Furman (3:30, SECN+); Iowa vs. Northern Illinois (4:15, BTN); Texas A&M vs. Missouri State (7:00, ESPN); Texas Tech vs. Abilene Christian (7:00, FS1); LSU vs. Clemson (7:30, ABC); Michigan vs. Western Michigan (7:30, NBC); Mississippi State vs. UL Monroe (7:30, ESPNU); Florida vs. Florida Atlantic (7:45, SEC Network); BYU vs. Utah Tech (8:00, ESPN+); New Mexico vs. Central Michigan (10:00, FS1); California vs. UCLA (10:30, ESPN). Sunday, Sept. 6 — Washington vs. Washington State (4:00, NBC); Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin (7:30, NBC); Ole Miss vs. Louisville (7:30, ABC). Monday, Sept. 7 — SMU at Florida State (7:30, ESPN). The storyline to follow into next week: whether the model's biggest favorite-side edges — West Virginia, Alabama, Indiana, Washington and Houston — are early-season noise or a signal. SOURCES 1. College Football Data API (CollegeFootballData) https://collegefootballdata.com 2026 Week 1 · Weekly Slate Preview Page 6 of 6
Entertainment only. This report is analysis and commentary, not advice, and nothing in it predicts or guarantees any result. Any wager you place is at your own risk. Full disclaimer.